ESTC
Elastic N.V. Technology - Search Software Investor Relations →
Elastic N.V. (ESTC) closed at $59.12 as of 2026-02-02, trading 28.9% below its 200-week moving average of $83.15. This places ESTC in the extreme value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -20.8% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 25, ESTC is in oversold territory.
Over the past 335 weeks of data, ESTC has crossed below its 200-week moving average 8 times. On average, these episodes lasted 22 weeks. Historically, investors who bought ESTC at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +3.3%.
With a market cap of $6.3 billion, ESTC is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 6.9%, which is healthy. Return on equity stands at -12.8%. The stock trades at 7.0x book value.
Share count has increased 12.1% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 6.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in ESTC would have grown to $69, compared to $256 for the S&P 500. ESTC has returned -5.6% annualized vs 15.6% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
In the past 12 months, corporate insiders have made 1 open-market purchase totaling $710,230. Notably, these purchases occurred while ESTC is trading below its 200-week moving average — insiders are buying when the market is most pessimistic.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Growth of $100: ESTC vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After ESTC Crosses Below the Line?
Across 8 historical episodes, buying ESTC when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of -1.2% after 12 months (median +12.0%), compared to +7.5% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 50% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +86.5% vs +34.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment ESTC crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
ESTC has crossed below its 200-week MA 8 times with an average 1-year return of +3.3% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2019 | May 2020 | 31 | 38.0% | +69.2% | -17.0% |
| Jan 2022 | Nov 2023 | 98 | 51.2% | -45.8% | -37.5% |
| Apr 2024 | Apr 2024 | 3 | 3.2% | -21.9% | -39.3% |
| Aug 2024 | Nov 2024 | 12 | 29.7% | +11.6% | -22.4% |
| Mar 2025 | May 2025 | 7 | 19.1% | N/A | -35.5% |
| May 2025 | Sep 2025 | 14 | 15.2% | N/A | -26.9% |
| Oct 2025 | Oct 2025 | 1 | 3.8% | N/A | -27.2% |
| Nov 2025 | Ongoing | 12+ | 28.9% | Ongoing | -15.6% |
| Average | 22 | — | +3.3% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02