ESTC
Elastic N.V. Technology - Search Software Investor Relations →
Elastic N.V. (ESTC) closed at $53.31 as of 2026-03-20, trading 35.5% below its 200-week moving average of $82.62. This places ESTC in the extreme value zone. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from -37.7% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 27, ESTC is in oversold territory.
Trading volume is running at 1.9x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.88 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 341 weeks of data, ESTC has crossed below its 200-week moving average 8 times. On average, these episodes lasted 23 weeks. Historically, investors who bought ESTC at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +3.3%.
With a market cap of $5.6 billion, ESTC is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 6.9%, which is healthy. Return on equity stands at -10.2%. The stock trades at 7.0x book value.
Share count has increased 12.1% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 6.6 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in ESTC would have grown to $62, compared to $241 for the S&P 500. ESTC has returned -7.0% annualized vs 14.3% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
In the past 12 months, corporate insiders have made 1 open-market purchase totaling $710,230. Notably, these purchases occurred while ESTC is trading below its 200-week moving average — insiders are buying when the market is most pessimistic.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: ESTC vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After ESTC Crosses Below the Line?
Across 8 historical episodes, buying ESTC when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of -7.0% after 12 months (median -22.0%), compared to +9.6% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 40% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +86.5% vs +34.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment ESTC crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
ESTC has crossed below its 200-week MA 8 times with an average 1-year return of +3.3% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2019 | May 2020 | 31 | 38.0% | +69.2% | -25.1% |
| Jan 2022 | Nov 2023 | 98 | 51.2% | -45.8% | -43.6% |
| Apr 2024 | Apr 2024 | 3 | 3.2% | -21.9% | -45.3% |
| Aug 2024 | Nov 2024 | 12 | 29.7% | +11.6% | -30.0% |
| Mar 2025 | May 2025 | 7 | 19.1% | N/A | -41.9% |
| May 2025 | Sep 2025 | 14 | 15.2% | N/A | -34.1% |
| Oct 2025 | Oct 2025 | 1 | 3.8% | N/A | -34.3% |
| Nov 2025 | Ongoing | 18+ | 37.7% | Ongoing | -23.9% |
| Average | 23 | — | +3.3% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ESTC below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-03-20, Elastic N.V. (ESTC) is trading 35.5% below its 200-week moving average of $82.62. The current price is $53.31.
What is ESTC's 200-week moving average price?
Elastic N.V.'s 200-week moving average is $82.62 as of 2026-03-20. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when ESTC drops below its 200-week moving average?
ESTC has crossed below its 200-week moving average 8 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +3.3%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 23 weeks on average.
Is ESTC a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about ESTC as of 2026-03-20: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 27 (oversold). Free cash flow yield is 6.9%. Return on equity is -10.2%. Price-to-book is 7.0x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does ESTC compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 6.6 years, $100 invested in ESTC would have grown to $62, compared to $241 for the S&P 500. That's -7.0% annualized vs 14.3% for the index. ESTC has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-03-20