ESRT
Empire State Realty Trust, Inc. Real Estate - REIT - Diversified Investor Relations →
Empire State Realty Trust, Inc. (ESRT) closed at $5.06 as of 2026-07-31, trading 34.6% below its 200-week moving average of $7.73. This places ESRT in the extreme value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -26.9% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 43, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.6x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.98 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 621 weeks of data, ESRT has crossed below its 200-week moving average 7 times. On average, these episodes lasted 54 weeks. Historically, investors who bought ESRT at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +14.5%.
With a market cap of $1549 million, ESRT is a small-cap stock. Return on equity stands at 0.5%. The stock trades at 0.8x book value.
Share count has increased 5.8% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 11.9 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in ESRT would have grown to $43, compared to $462 for the S&P 500. ESRT has returned -6.9% annualized vs 13.7% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 5.7% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation. A business generating more cash every year while trading below its 200-week moving average is exactly the kind of disconnect value investors look for.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: ESRT vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After ESRT Crosses Below the Line?
Across 7 historical episodes, buying ESRT when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +7.6% after 12 months (median +16.0%), compared to +16.6% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 57% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +11.8% vs +32.8% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment ESRT crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices ESRT would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where ESRT's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $4.18 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $4.58 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $5.06 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $5.64 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $6.39 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from ESRT's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
ESRT has crossed below its 200-week MA 7 times with an average 1-year return of +14.5% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 2014 | Oct 2014 | 3 | 1.8% | +16.1% | -57.1% |
| Aug 2015 | Sep 2015 | 1 | 0.3% | +38.7% | -60.7% |
| Feb 2016 | Feb 2016 | 4 | 8.2% | +30.2% | -61.0% |
| Feb 2018 | Aug 2023 | 288 | 63.0% | -8.7% | -65.7% |
| Sep 2023 | Oct 2023 | 6 | 11.1% | +40.8% | -33.0% |
| Feb 2025 | Jun 2025 | 16 | 18.3% | -30.2% | -39.7% |
| Jun 2025 | Ongoing | 58+ | 37.3% | Ongoing | -36.0% |
| Average | 54 | — | +14.5% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ESRT below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-07-31, Empire State Realty Trust, Inc. (ESRT) is trading 34.6% below its 200-week moving average of $7.73. The current price is $5.06.
What is ESRT's 200-week moving average price?
Empire State Realty Trust, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $7.73 as of 2026-07-31. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when ESRT drops below its 200-week moving average?
ESRT has crossed below its 200-week moving average 7 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +14.5%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 54 weeks on average.
Is ESRT a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about ESRT as of 2026-07-31: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 43. Return on equity is 0.5%. Price-to-book is 0.8x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does ESRT compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 11.9 years, $100 invested in ESRT would have grown to $43, compared to $462 for the S&P 500. That's -6.9% annualized vs 13.7% for the index. ESRT has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does ESRT pay a dividend?
Yes. Empire State Realty Trust, Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 280.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-31