ESRT
Empire State Realty Trust, Inc. Real Estate - REIT - Diversified Investor Relations →
Empire State Realty Trust, Inc. (ESRT) closed at $6.75 as of 2026-02-02, trading 16.1% below its 200-week moving average of $8.05. This places ESRT in the extreme value zone. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from -17.7% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 39, indicating neutral momentum.
Over the past 596 weeks of data, ESRT has crossed below its 200-week moving average 7 times. On average, these episodes lasted 50 weeks. Historically, investors who bought ESRT at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +20.3%.
With a market cap of $2.0 billion, ESRT is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 25.5%, which is notably high. Return on equity stands at 3.4%. The stock trades at 1.1x book value.
Over the past 11.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in ESRT would have grown to $56, compared to $426 for the S&P 500. ESRT has returned -4.8% annualized vs 13.4% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 7.1% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation. A business generating more cash every year while trading below its 200-week moving average is exactly the kind of disconnect value investors look for.
Growth of $100: ESRT vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After ESRT Crosses Below the Line?
Across 7 historical episodes, buying ESRT when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +15.3% after 12 months (median +34.0%), compared to +15.8% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 67% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +11.8% vs +32.8% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment ESRT crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
ESRT has crossed below its 200-week MA 7 times with an average 1-year return of +20.3% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 2014 | Oct 2014 | 3 | 1.7% | +16.1% | -43.5% |
| Aug 2015 | Sep 2015 | 1 | 0.2% | +38.7% | -48.2% |
| Feb 2016 | Feb 2016 | 4 | 8.2% | +30.2% | -48.7% |
| Feb 2018 | Aug 2023 | 288 | 63.0% | -8.7% | -54.9% |
| Sep 2023 | Oct 2023 | 7 | 11.0% | +25.3% | -18.3% |
| Feb 2025 | Jun 2025 | 16 | 18.3% | N/A | -20.6% |
| Jun 2025 | Ongoing | 33+ | 21.0% | Ongoing | -15.8% |
| Average | 50 | — | +20.3% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02