ESNT
Essent Group Ltd. Financial Services - Insurance - Specialty Investor Relations →
Essent Group Ltd. (ESNT) closed at $58.45 as of 2026-06-19, trading 12.8% above its 200-week moving average of $51.81. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 12.9% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 52, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.7x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.80 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 611 weeks of data, ESNT has crossed below its 200-week moving average 10 times. On average, these episodes lasted 11 weeks. Historically, investors who bought ESNT at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +28.5%.
With a market cap of $5.4 billion, ESNT is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 10.9%, which is notably high. Return on equity stands at 12.1%. The stock trades at 0.9x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 11.4% over the past three years.
Over the past 11.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in ESNT would have grown to $272, compared to $451 for the S&P 500. ESNT has returned 8.9% annualized vs 13.7% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 13.2% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: ESNT vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After ESNT Crosses Below the Line?
Across 10 historical episodes, buying ESNT when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +37.3% after 12 months (median +34.0%), compared to +21.3% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 80% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +52.8% vs +39.2% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment ESNT crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices ESNT would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where ESNT's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-08-07.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $51.63 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $54.28 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $57.21 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $60.48 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $64.14 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from ESNT's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
ESNT has crossed below its 200-week MA 10 times with an average 1-year return of +28.5% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2014 | Oct 2014 | 1 | 0.6% | +19.9% | +208.0% |
| Nov 2015 | Nov 2015 | 1 | 0.1% | +23.8% | +180.4% |
| Dec 2015 | Jul 2016 | 31 | 26.4% | +46.5% | +188.5% |
| Dec 2018 | Dec 2018 | 1 | 1.4% | +67.2% | +108.2% |
| Mar 2020 | Oct 2020 | 30 | 45.3% | +24.0% | +74.6% |
| Oct 2020 | Nov 2020 | 1 | 1.1% | +22.2% | +62.8% |
| Mar 2022 | May 2022 | 11 | 4.2% | -0.3% | +55.9% |
| Jun 2022 | Aug 2022 | 8 | 12.1% | +16.7% | +54.2% |
| Aug 2022 | Jan 2023 | 22 | 16.6% | +26.4% | +54.0% |
| Mar 2023 | Apr 2023 | 5 | 11.1% | +38.4% | +56.5% |
| Average | 11 | — | +28.5% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ESNT below its 200-week moving average?
No. Essent Group Ltd. (ESNT) is currently 12.8% above its 200-week moving average of $51.81. It would need to fall to $51.81 to cross below the line.
What is ESNT's 200-week moving average price?
Essent Group Ltd.'s 200-week moving average is $51.81 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when ESNT drops below its 200-week moving average?
ESNT has crossed below its 200-week moving average 10 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +28.5%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 11 weeks on average.
Is ESNT a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about ESNT as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 52. Free cash flow yield is 10.9%. Return on equity is 12.1%. Price-to-book is 0.9x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does ESNT compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 11.8 years, $100 invested in ESNT would have grown to $272, compared to $451 for the S&P 500. That's 8.9% annualized vs 13.7% for the index. ESNT has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does ESNT pay a dividend?
Yes. Essent Group Ltd. currently pays a dividend yield of 235.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19