ES
Eversource Energy Utilities - Electric Investor Relations →
Eversource Energy (ES) closed at $69.59 as of 2026-06-19, trading 13.6% above its 200-week moving average of $61.24. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 12.1% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 45, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.5x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.97 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2734 weeks of data, ES has crossed below its 200-week moving average 23 times. On average, these episodes lasted 29 weeks. Historically, investors who bought ES at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +1.4%.
With a market cap of $26.2 billion, ES is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 2.2%. Return on equity stands at 10.9%. The stock trades at 1.6x book value.
Share count has increased 7.7% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 33.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in ES would have grown to $859, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. ES has returned 6.6% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: ES vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After ES Crosses Below the Line?
Across 16 historical episodes, buying ES when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +3.2% after 12 months (median +6.0%), compared to +17.3% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 57% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +19.4% vs +38.9% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment ES crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices ES would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where ES's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-07-30.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $66.16 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $67.18 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $68.23 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $69.31 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $70.43 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from ES's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
ES has crossed below its 200-week MA 23 times with an average 1-year return of +1.4% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 1974 | Dec 1975 | 100 | 51.6% | -27.7% | +3840.5% |
| Feb 1976 | Mar 1976 | 1 | 0.4% | +9.9% | +4472.9% |
| May 1976 | Jul 1976 | 6 | 1.8% | +8.6% | +4472.9% |
| May 1978 | Jul 1978 | 9 | 3.1% | -10.1% | +4588.7% |
| Sep 1978 | Aug 1979 | 48 | 15.8% | N/A | +4530.1% |
| Aug 1979 | Nov 1981 | 115 | 23.4% | -14.5% | +4362.7% |
| Nov 1981 | Jan 1982 | 9 | 2.5% | +27.4% | +4974.0% |
| Sep 1994 | Sep 1994 | 2 | 1.2% | +23.8% | +903.5% |
| Mar 1996 | May 1998 | 112 | 55.5% | -48.5% | +852.1% |
| Aug 1998 | Sep 1998 | 4 | 2.1% | +18.5% | +1034.9% |
| Mar 1999 | Apr 1999 | 5 | 2.9% | +38.5% | +1064.2% |
| Oct 2001 | Jan 2002 | 14 | 5.5% | -17.3% | +811.1% |
| Jan 2002 | Feb 2002 | 1 | 0.2% | -18.3% | +789.8% |
| Jul 2002 | Sep 2003 | 61 | 24.7% | -6.7% | +765.9% |
| Oct 2008 | Dec 2008 | 11 | 16.7% | +27.9% | +578.3% |
| Feb 2009 | Aug 2009 | 24 | 14.2% | +26.1% | +483.4% |
| Sep 2009 | Oct 2009 | 1 | 1.4% | +34.4% | +440.5% |
| Oct 2009 | Nov 2009 | 3 | 2.0% | +38.9% | +440.0% |
| Sep 2022 | Nov 2022 | 7 | 8.3% | -22.7% | +5.1% |
| Jan 2023 | Jan 2023 | 1 | 0.2% | -30.3% | +2.0% |
| Feb 2023 | Jul 2025 | 126 | 31.6% | -28.6% | +1.5% |
| Aug 2025 | Aug 2025 | 1 | 0.3% | N/A | +11.9% |
| Aug 2025 | Sep 2025 | 2 | 2.4% | N/A | +13.6% |
| Average | 29 | — | +1.4% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ES below its 200-week moving average?
No. Eversource Energy (ES) is currently 13.6% above its 200-week moving average of $61.24. It would need to fall to $61.24 to cross below the line.
What is ES's 200-week moving average price?
Eversource Energy's 200-week moving average is $61.24 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when ES drops below its 200-week moving average?
ES has crossed below its 200-week moving average 23 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +1.4%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 29 weeks on average.
Is ES a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about ES as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 45. Free cash flow yield is 2.2%. Return on equity is 10.9%. Price-to-book is 1.6x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does ES compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.5 years, $100 invested in ES would have grown to $859, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That's 6.6% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. ES has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does ES pay a dividend?
Yes. Eversource Energy currently pays a dividend yield of 451.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19