ERIE
Erie Indemnity Company Financial Services - Insurance Investor Relations →
Erie Indemnity Company (ERIE) closed at $242.04 as of 2026-07-31, trading 22.2% below its 200-week moving average of $310.96. This places ERIE in the extreme value zone. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from -28.1% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 53, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 2.0x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.08 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1560 weeks of data, ERIE has crossed below its 200-week moving average 21 times. On average, these episodes lasted 14 weeks. Historically, investors who bought ERIE at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +7.8%.
With a market cap of $12.7 billion, ERIE is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 4.1%. Return on equity stands at 24.8%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 5.1x book value.
ERIE passes our Buffett quality screen: high return on equity, low debt, and positive free cash flow.
Over the past 29.9 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in ERIE would have grown to $1498, compared to $1815 for the S&P 500. ERIE has returned 9.5% annualized vs 10.2% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 24.1% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation. A business generating more cash every year while trading below its 200-week moving average is exactly the kind of disconnect value investors look for.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: ERIE vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After ERIE Crosses Below the Line?
Across 21 historical episodes, buying ERIE when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +9.2% after 12 months (median +3.0%), compared to +2.2% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 50% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +34.5% vs +11.2% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment ERIE crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices ERIE would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where ERIE's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-08-06.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $206.66 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $219.38 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $233.76 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $250.15 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $269.02 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from ERIE's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
ERIE has crossed below its 200-week MA 21 times with an average 1-year return of +7.8% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 1996 | Jan 1997 | 8 | 10.5% | +5.7% | +1773.0% |
| Mar 1997 | Jun 1997 | 11 | 3.9% | +13.7% | +1728.5% |
| Nov 1997 | Mar 1998 | 20 | 5.1% | -8.7% | +1642.5% |
| Apr 1998 | Apr 1998 | 1 | 0.2% | -6.5% | +1637.4% |
| May 1998 | Jun 1998 | 2 | 4.1% | -6.6% | +1644.8% |
| Jun 1998 | Jul 1998 | 2 | 2.1% | -5.8% | +1667.2% |
| Aug 1998 | Dec 1998 | 19 | 15.4% | -5.4% | +1668.2% |
| Feb 1999 | Sep 1999 | 32 | 7.6% | +4.4% | +1685.2% |
| Jan 2000 | Jan 2000 | 1 | 2.6% | -2.1% | +1625.1% |
| Jan 2000 | Feb 2000 | 4 | 3.1% | -8.8% | +1574.6% |
| Apr 2000 | Jun 2000 | 10 | 5.7% | -2.8% | +1603.3% |
| Oct 2000 | Feb 2001 | 18 | 13.8% | +42.1% | +1636.4% |
| Mar 2001 | Mar 2001 | 2 | 3.8% | +45.2% | +1650.6% |
| Apr 2001 | Apr 2001 | 1 | 1.7% | +48.5% | +1651.7% |
| Jan 2008 | Jan 2008 | 2 | 2.9% | -20.0% | +751.2% |
| Feb 2008 | Mar 2008 | 2 | 1.1% | -30.7% | +752.6% |
| Jun 2008 | Mar 2010 | 95 | 38.1% | -23.0% | +738.9% |
| Jan 2022 | Jan 2022 | 1 | 0.5% | +42.4% | +50.2% |
| Feb 2022 | Mar 2022 | 4 | 4.3% | +40.6% | +53.2% |
| Apr 2022 | Jun 2022 | 9 | 10.7% | +34.3% | +50.3% |
| Oct 2025 | Ongoing | 40+ | 31.6% | Ongoing | -15.9% |
| Average | 14 | — | +7.8% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ERIE below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-07-31, Erie Indemnity Company (ERIE) is trading 22.2% below its 200-week moving average of $310.96. The current price is $242.04.
What is ERIE's 200-week moving average price?
Erie Indemnity Company's 200-week moving average is $310.96 as of 2026-07-31. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when ERIE drops below its 200-week moving average?
ERIE has crossed below its 200-week moving average 21 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +7.8%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 14 weeks on average.
Is ERIE a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about ERIE as of 2026-07-31: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 53. Free cash flow yield is 4.1%. Return on equity is 24.8%. Price-to-book is 5.1x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does ERIE compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 29.9 years, $100 invested in ERIE would have grown to $1498, compared to $1815 for the S&P 500. That's 9.5% annualized vs 10.2% for the index. ERIE has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does ERIE pay a dividend?
Yes. Erie Indemnity Company currently pays a dividend yield of 241.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-31