ERIE
Erie Indemnity Company Financial Services - Insurance Investor Relations →
Erie Indemnity Company (ERIE) closed at $287.71 as of 2026-02-02, trading 6.3% below its 200-week moving average of $307.17. This places ERIE in the deep value zone. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from -7.7% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 47, indicating neutral momentum.
Over the past 1535 weeks of data, ERIE has crossed below its 200-week moving average 21 times. On average, these episodes lasted 12 weeks. Historically, investors who bought ERIE at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +7.8%.
With a market cap of $15.0 billion, ERIE is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 2.7%. Return on equity stands at 30.4%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 6.5x book value.
ERIE passes our Buffett quality screen: high return on equity, low debt, and positive free cash flow.
Over the past 29.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in ERIE would have grown to $1765, compared to $1678 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 10.2% vs 10.0% for the index — confirming ERIE as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 24.2% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation. A business generating more cash every year while trading below its 200-week moving average is exactly the kind of disconnect value investors look for.
Growth of $100: ERIE vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After ERIE Crosses Below the Line?
Across 21 historical episodes, buying ERIE when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +9.2% after 12 months (median +3.0%), compared to +2.3% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 50% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +34.5% vs +11.2% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment ERIE crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
ERIE has crossed below its 200-week MA 21 times with an average 1-year return of +7.8% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 1996 | Jan 1997 | 8 | 10.5% | +5.7% | +2101.1% |
| Mar 1997 | Jun 1997 | 11 | 3.9% | +13.7% | +2055.8% |
| Nov 1997 | Mar 1998 | 17 | 5.1% | -8.7% | +1947.7% |
| Apr 1998 | Apr 1998 | 1 | 0.2% | -6.5% | +1941.7% |
| May 1998 | Jun 1998 | 2 | 4.1% | -6.6% | +1950.3% |
| Jun 1998 | Jul 1998 | 2 | 2.4% | -5.8% | +1976.7% |
| Aug 1998 | Dec 1998 | 19 | 15.4% | -5.4% | +1977.9% |
| Feb 1999 | Sep 1999 | 32 | 7.5% | +4.4% | +1997.8% |
| Jan 2000 | Jan 2000 | 1 | 3.0% | -2.2% | +1936.1% |
| Jan 2000 | Feb 2000 | 4 | 3.0% | -8.8% | +1867.8% |
| Apr 2000 | Jun 2000 | 10 | 5.7% | -2.8% | +1901.5% |
| Oct 2000 | Feb 2001 | 18 | 13.8% | +42.1% | +1940.5% |
| Mar 2001 | Mar 2001 | 2 | 3.7% | +45.2% | +1957.2% |
| Apr 2001 | Apr 2001 | 1 | 1.7% | +48.5% | +1958.5% |
| Jan 2008 | Jan 2008 | 2 | 2.9% | -20.0% | +900.3% |
| Feb 2008 | Mar 2008 | 2 | 1.0% | -30.7% | +901.9% |
| Jun 2008 | Mar 2010 | 95 | 38.1% | -23.0% | +885.9% |
| Jan 2022 | Jan 2022 | 1 | 0.4% | +42.4% | +76.5% |
| Feb 2022 | Mar 2022 | 4 | 4.2% | +40.6% | +80.1% |
| Apr 2022 | Jun 2022 | 9 | 10.7% | +34.3% | +76.7% |
| Oct 2025 | Ongoing | 15+ | 9.9% | Ongoing | -1.2% |
| Average | 12 | — | +7.8% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02