ERIE
Erie Indemnity Company Financial Services - Insurance Investor Relations →
Erie Indemnity Company (ERIE) closed at $240.37 as of 2026-03-20, trading 22.5% below its 200-week moving average of $310.23. This places ERIE in the extreme value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -20.3% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 23, ERIE is in oversold territory.
A big spike in selling this week — 3.2x the usual volume, and the price dropped. Sometimes this kind of heavy selling marks the end of a decline. The idea is that the last reluctant holders have finally sold, leaving fewer sellers left to push the price lower.
Over the past 1541 weeks of data, ERIE has crossed below its 200-week moving average 21 times. On average, these episodes lasted 12 weeks. Historically, investors who bought ERIE at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +7.8%.
With a market cap of $12.6 billion, ERIE is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 4.0%. Return on equity stands at 26.2%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 5.5x book value.
ERIE passes our Buffett quality screen: high return on equity, low debt, and positive free cash flow.
Over the past 29.6 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in ERIE would have grown to $1475, compared to $1580 for the S&P 500. ERIE has returned 9.5% annualized vs 9.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 24.1% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation. A business generating more cash every year while trading below its 200-week moving average is exactly the kind of disconnect value investors look for.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: ERIE vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After ERIE Crosses Below the Line?
Across 21 historical episodes, buying ERIE when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +9.2% after 12 months (median +3.0%), compared to +2.3% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 50% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +34.5% vs +11.2% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment ERIE crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
ERIE has crossed below its 200-week MA 21 times with an average 1-year return of +7.8% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 1996 | Jan 1997 | 8 | 10.5% | +5.7% | +1738.9% |
| Mar 1997 | Jun 1997 | 11 | 3.9% | +13.7% | +1701.1% |
| Nov 1997 | Mar 1998 | 17 | 5.1% | -8.7% | +1610.8% |
| Apr 1998 | Apr 1998 | 1 | 0.2% | -6.5% | +1605.7% |
| May 1998 | Jun 1998 | 2 | 4.1% | -6.6% | +1613.0% |
| Jun 1998 | Jul 1998 | 2 | 2.4% | -5.8% | +1635.0% |
| Aug 1998 | Dec 1998 | 19 | 15.4% | -5.4% | +1636.0% |
| Feb 1999 | Sep 1999 | 32 | 7.5% | +4.4% | +1652.6% |
| Jan 2000 | Jan 2000 | 1 | 3.0% | -2.2% | +1601.1% |
| Jan 2000 | Feb 2000 | 4 | 3.0% | -8.8% | +1544.1% |
| Apr 2000 | Jun 2000 | 10 | 5.7% | -2.8% | +1572.2% |
| Oct 2000 | Feb 2001 | 18 | 13.8% | +42.1% | +1604.7% |
| Mar 2001 | Mar 2001 | 2 | 3.7% | +45.2% | +1618.7% |
| Apr 2001 | Apr 2001 | 1 | 1.7% | +48.5% | +1619.8% |
| Jan 2008 | Jan 2008 | 2 | 2.9% | -20.0% | +735.7% |
| Feb 2008 | Mar 2008 | 2 | 1.0% | -30.7% | +737.1% |
| Jun 2008 | Mar 2010 | 95 | 38.1% | -23.0% | +723.6% |
| Jan 2022 | Jan 2022 | 1 | 0.4% | +42.4% | +47.5% |
| Feb 2022 | Mar 2022 | 4 | 4.2% | +40.6% | +50.4% |
| Apr 2022 | Jun 2022 | 9 | 10.7% | +34.3% | +47.6% |
| Oct 2025 | Ongoing | 21+ | 22.5% | Ongoing | -17.4% |
| Average | 12 | — | +7.8% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ERIE below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-03-20, Erie Indemnity Company (ERIE) is trading 22.5% below its 200-week moving average of $310.23. The current price is $240.37.
What is ERIE's 200-week moving average price?
Erie Indemnity Company's 200-week moving average is $310.23 as of 2026-03-20. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when ERIE drops below its 200-week moving average?
ERIE has crossed below its 200-week moving average 21 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +7.8%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 12 weeks on average.
Is ERIE a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about ERIE as of 2026-03-20: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 23 (oversold). Free cash flow yield is 4.0%. Return on equity is 26.2%. Price-to-book is 5.5x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does ERIE compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 29.6 years, $100 invested in ERIE would have grown to $1475, compared to $1580 for the S&P 500. That's 9.5% annualized vs 9.8% for the index. ERIE has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does ERIE pay a dividend?
Yes. Erie Indemnity Company currently pays a dividend yield of 243.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-03-20