EQNR
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Equinor ASA (EQNR) closed at $41.10 as of 2026-07-31, trading 63.9% above its 200-week moving average of $25.07. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 61.5% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 56, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.1x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.90 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1262 weeks of data, EQNR has crossed below its 200-week moving average 24 times. On average, these episodes lasted 15 weeks. Historically, investors who bought EQNR at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +22.5%.
With a market cap of $97.7 billion, EQNR is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 30.1%, which is notably high. Return on equity stands at 21.3%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 4.7x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 19.9% over the past three years.
Over the past 24.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in EQNR would have grown to $1637, compared to $1083 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 12.2% vs 10.3% for the index — confirming EQNR as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -39% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: EQNR vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After EQNR Crosses Below the Line?
Across 24 historical episodes, buying EQNR when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +22.5% after 12 months (median +19.0%), compared to +17.4% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 81% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +30.9% vs +30.9% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment EQNR crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices EQNR would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where EQNR's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $19.19 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $30.16 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $70.48 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | N/A | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | N/A | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from EQNR's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
EQNR has crossed below its 200-week MA 24 times with an average 1-year return of +22.5% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2002 | Oct 2002 | 1 | 2.0% | +40.0% | +1855.0% |
| Nov 2002 | Nov 2002 | 1 | 0.9% | +46.5% | +1833.2% |
| Sep 2008 | Oct 2009 | 54 | 43.5% | +7.7% | +398.7% |
| Oct 2009 | Nov 2009 | 1 | 1.1% | -2.8% | +325.1% |
| Jan 2010 | Apr 2010 | 11 | 10.1% | +10.8% | +334.1% |
| May 2010 | Dec 2010 | 32 | 14.8% | +28.0% | +370.2% |
| Aug 2011 | Aug 2011 | 1 | 0.5% | +21.4% | +320.1% |
| Sep 2011 | Oct 2011 | 2 | 4.0% | +34.6% | +338.4% |
| Jun 2013 | Jul 2013 | 4 | 5.4% | +57.4% | +295.9% |
| Jul 2013 | Aug 2013 | 1 | 1.0% | +38.6% | +287.0% |
| Aug 2013 | Aug 2013 | 1 | 0.5% | +37.1% | +284.7% |
| Oct 2014 | Jan 2017 | 114 | 43.6% | -26.9% | +245.0% |
| Feb 2017 | Jul 2017 | 24 | 10.5% | +25.7% | +302.4% |
| Jul 2019 | Sep 2019 | 7 | 10.6% | -8.9% | +258.0% |
| Oct 2019 | Oct 2019 | 1 | 2.2% | -17.2% | +257.1% |
| Jan 2020 | Jan 2021 | 49 | 48.7% | +2.2% | +250.2% |
| Jan 2021 | Feb 2021 | 4 | 2.2% | +59.0% | +242.7% |
| Oct 2024 | Nov 2024 | 3 | 6.2% | +11.0% | +97.9% |
| Dec 2024 | Dec 2024 | 4 | 6.7% | +5.2% | +92.6% |
| Jan 2025 | Mar 2025 | 7 | 3.6% | +14.3% | +87.7% |
| Mar 2025 | Jun 2025 | 9 | 6.8% | +89.3% | +88.3% |
| Aug 2025 | Aug 2025 | 2 | 0.5% | N/A | +77.1% |
| Sep 2025 | Sep 2025 | 3 | 2.2% | N/A | +79.4% |
| Oct 2025 | Jan 2026 | 14 | 6.0% | N/A | +84.1% |
| Average | 15 | — | +22.5% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is EQNR below its 200-week moving average?
No. Equinor ASA (EQNR) is currently 63.9% above its 200-week moving average of $25.07. It would need to fall to $25.07 to cross below the line.
What is EQNR's 200-week moving average price?
Equinor ASA's 200-week moving average is $25.07 as of 2026-07-31. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when EQNR drops below its 200-week moving average?
EQNR has crossed below its 200-week moving average 24 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +22.5%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 15 weeks on average.
Is EQNR a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about EQNR as of 2026-07-31: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 56. Free cash flow yield is 30.1%. Return on equity is 21.3%. Price-to-book is 4.7x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does EQNR compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 24.2 years, $100 invested in EQNR would have grown to $1637, compared to $1083 for the S&P 500. That's 12.2% annualized vs 10.3% for the index. EQNR has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does EQNR pay a dividend?
Yes. Equinor ASA currently pays a dividend yield of 373.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-31