EPRT
Essential Properties Realty Trust, Inc. Real Estate - REIT - Retail Investor Relations →
Essential Properties Realty Trust, Inc. (EPRT) closed at $31.29 as of 2026-07-31, trading 19.4% above its 200-week moving average of $26.20. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 23.8% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 51, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 0.9x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.05 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 375 weeks of data, EPRT has crossed below its 200-week moving average 5 times. On average, these episodes lasted 6 weeks. Historically, investors who bought EPRT at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +61.7%.
With a market cap of $6.8 billion, EPRT is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 4.5%. Return on equity stands at 6.5%. The stock trades at 1.5x book value.
Share count has increased 47.3% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 7.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in EPRT would have grown to $202, compared to $302 for the S&P 500. EPRT has returned 10.2% annualized vs 16.5% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 21.8% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: EPRT vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After EPRT Crosses Below the Line?
Across 5 historical episodes, buying EPRT when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +75.6% after 12 months (median +87.0%), compared to +38.0% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 100% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +74.6% vs +50.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment EPRT crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices EPRT would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where EPRT's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $28.93 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $30.13 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $31.43 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $32.84 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $34.39 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from EPRT's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
EPRT has crossed below its 200-week MA 5 times with an average 1-year return of +61.7% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2020 | Aug 2020 | 21 | 44.7% | +42.8% | +132.7% |
| Aug 2020 | Aug 2020 | 2 | 3.4% | +90.8% | +140.3% |
| Oct 2020 | Nov 2020 | 2 | 4.5% | +87.7% | +141.7% |
| Sep 2022 | Oct 2022 | 4 | 6.4% | +16.7% | +88.6% |
| Oct 2023 | Oct 2023 | 2 | 1.6% | +70.7% | +67.6% |
| Average | 6 | — | +61.7% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is EPRT below its 200-week moving average?
No. Essential Properties Realty Trust, Inc. (EPRT) is currently 19.4% above its 200-week moving average of $26.20. It would need to fall to $26.20 to cross below the line.
What is EPRT's 200-week moving average price?
Essential Properties Realty Trust, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $26.20 as of 2026-07-31. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when EPRT drops below its 200-week moving average?
EPRT has crossed below its 200-week moving average 5 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +61.7%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 6 weeks on average.
Is EPRT a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about EPRT as of 2026-07-31: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 51. Free cash flow yield is 4.5%. Return on equity is 6.5%. Price-to-book is 1.5x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does EPRT compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 7.2 years, $100 invested in EPRT would have grown to $202, compared to $302 for the S&P 500. That's 10.2% annualized vs 16.5% for the index. EPRT has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does EPRT pay a dividend?
Yes. Essential Properties Realty Trust, Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 409.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-31