EPM
Evolution Petroleum Corporation Energy - Oil & Gas E&P Investor Relations →
Evolution Petroleum Corporation (EPM) closed at $3.86 as of 2026-09-18, trading 15.5% below its 200-week moving average of $4.57. This places EPM in the extreme value zone. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from -18.8% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 44, indicating neutral momentum.
A big jump in activity this week — 2.3x the usual volume, and the price went up. Significantly more people than usual decided to buy. This kind of surge, especially on a stock already below its 200-week average, can be an early sign that sentiment is shifting.
Over the past 1540 weeks of data, EPM has crossed below its 200-week moving average 24 times. On average, these episodes lasted 36 weeks. Historically, investors who bought EPM at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +4.2%.
With a market cap of $155 million, EPM is a small-cap stock. Free cash flow yield is currently negative, meaning the company is burning cash. Return on equity stands at -3.7%. The stock trades at 2.3x book value.
Share count has increased 8.1% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 29.6 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in EPM would have grown to $0, compared to $1674 for the S&P 500. EPM has returned -17.9% annualized vs 10.0% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -100% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: EPM vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After EPM Crosses Below the Line?
Across 24 historical episodes, buying EPM when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +3.3% after 12 months (median +1.0%), compared to +7.8% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 50% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +1.5% vs +23.7% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment EPM crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. EPM currently has negative free cash flow, so price-based dislocation levels are not available. The score still tracks yield deviation from baseline.
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | $0.01 | $-0.02 | -350.0% |
| 2025-09-16 | $0.01 | $0.03 | +125.1% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
the write-ups I read Simply Wall St · Visual company reports and write-ups. Free tier covers five reports a month. referral
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from EPM's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
EPM has crossed below its 200-week MA 24 times with an average 1-year return of +4.2% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1997 | Sep 2000 | 182 | 96.7% | -37.5% | -99.8% |
| Sep 2000 | Feb 2006 | 282 | 99.9% | -85.7% | -99.4% |
| Aug 2007 | Sep 2007 | 2 | 4.8% | +69.3% | +278.5% |
| Sep 2008 | Jul 2009 | 43 | 58.3% | +13.5% | +213.0% |
| Aug 2009 | Sep 2009 | 3 | 9.3% | +54.4% | +185.6% |
| Sep 2009 | Oct 2009 | 1 | 1.3% | +111.5% | +175.9% |
| Sep 2014 | Oct 2014 | 4 | 6.6% | -32.9% | -13.2% |
| Nov 2014 | Nov 2016 | 104 | 53.9% | -31.1% | -12.8% |
| Mar 2017 | Mar 2017 | 1 | 1.6% | +9.3% | -5.6% |
| May 2017 | May 2017 | 1 | 5.5% | +35.5% | -1.1% |
| May 2017 | Jun 2017 | 1 | 2.2% | +39.5% | -3.7% |
| Aug 2017 | Oct 2017 | 10 | 9.9% | +43.6% | -1.9% |
| Nov 2017 | Nov 2017 | 1 | 3.8% | +47.4% | +2.7% |
| Dec 2017 | Jan 2018 | 4 | 3.6% | +26.3% | +3.4% |
| Dec 2018 | Dec 2018 | 1 | 4.0% | -7.1% | +1.9% |
| Mar 2019 | Mar 2019 | 1 | 0.6% | -23.9% | -3.0% |
| Mar 2019 | Apr 2019 | 3 | 0.9% | -59.9% | -3.0% |
| May 2019 | Jun 2019 | 5 | 11.1% | -60.4% | -1.5% |
| Jul 2019 | Sep 2021 | 116 | 65.8% | -52.9% | -2.1% |
| Nov 2021 | Dec 2021 | 5 | 5.0% | +62.6% | +13.8% |
| Jul 2024 | Sep 2024 | 6 | 9.4% | +1.2% | -6.5% |
| Oct 2024 | Nov 2024 | 1 | 1.7% | -6.8% | -10.5% |
| Dec 2024 | Dec 2024 | 2 | 6.8% | -20.0% | -7.6% |
| Feb 2025 | Ongoing | 85+ | 32.7% | Ongoing | -12.1% |
| Average | 36 | — | +4.2% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is EPM below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-09-18, Evolution Petroleum Corporation (EPM) is trading 15.5% below its 200-week moving average of $4.57. The current price is $3.86.
What is EPM's 200-week moving average price?
Evolution Petroleum Corporation's 200-week moving average is $4.57 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when EPM drops below its 200-week moving average?
EPM has crossed below its 200-week moving average 24 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +4.2%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 36 weeks on average.
Is EPM a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about EPM as of 2026-09-18: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 44. Free cash flow is currently negative. Return on equity is -3.7%. Price-to-book is 2.3x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does EPM compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 29.6 years, $100 invested in EPM would have grown to $0, compared to $1674 for the S&P 500. That's -17.9% annualized vs 10.0% for the index. EPM has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does EPM pay a dividend?
Yes. Evolution Petroleum Corporation currently pays a dividend yield of 1244.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18