EPM
Evolution Petroleum Corporation Energy - Oil & Gas E&P Investor Relations →
Evolution Petroleum Corporation (EPM) closed at $4.10 as of 2026-02-02, trading 17.3% below its 200-week moving average of $4.96. This places EPM in the extreme value zone. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from -20.6% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 47, indicating neutral momentum.
Over the past 1508 weeks of data, EPM has crossed below its 200-week moving average 23 times. On average, these episodes lasted 36 weeks. Historically, investors who bought EPM at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +7.0%.
With a market cap of $144 million, EPM is a small-cap stock. Free cash flow yield is currently negative, meaning the company is burning cash. Return on equity stands at 0.3%. The stock trades at 2.0x book value.
Share count has increased 2.6% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 29 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in EPM would have grown to $0, compared to $1512 for the S&P 500. EPM has returned -18.2% annualized vs 9.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Growth of $100: EPM vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After EPM Crosses Below the Line?
Across 23 historical episodes, buying EPM when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +5.9% after 12 months (median +1.0%), compared to +8.5% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 52% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +4.4% vs +21.9% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment EPM crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
EPM has crossed below its 200-week MA 23 times with an average 1-year return of +7.0% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1997 | Sep 2000 | 182 | 96.7% | -37.5% | -99.8% |
| Sep 2000 | Feb 2006 | 282 | 99.9% | -85.7% | -99.4% |
| Aug 2007 | Sep 2007 | 2 | 4.8% | +69.3% | +280.5% |
| Sep 2008 | Jul 2009 | 43 | 58.3% | +13.5% | +214.6% |
| Aug 2009 | Sep 2009 | 3 | 9.3% | +54.4% | +187.0% |
| Sep 2009 | Oct 2009 | 1 | 1.3% | +111.5% | +177.3% |
| Sep 2014 | Oct 2014 | 4 | 6.5% | -32.9% | -12.7% |
| Nov 2014 | Nov 2016 | 104 | 53.9% | -31.1% | -12.3% |
| Mar 2017 | Mar 2017 | 1 | 1.5% | +9.3% | -5.1% |
| May 2017 | May 2017 | 1 | 5.5% | +35.5% | -0.6% |
| May 2017 | Jun 2017 | 1 | 2.1% | +39.5% | -3.2% |
| Aug 2017 | Oct 2017 | 10 | 9.8% | +43.6% | -1.4% |
| Nov 2017 | Nov 2017 | 1 | 3.7% | +47.4% | +3.2% |
| Dec 2017 | Jan 2018 | 4 | 4.0% | +26.3% | +3.9% |
| Dec 2018 | Dec 2018 | 1 | 3.9% | -7.1% | +2.4% |
| Mar 2019 | Apr 2019 | 6 | 0.8% | -23.9% | -2.5% |
| May 2019 | Jun 2019 | 5 | 11.0% | -60.4% | -1.0% |
| Jul 2019 | Sep 2021 | 116 | 65.7% | -52.9% | -1.6% |
| Nov 2021 | Dec 2021 | 5 | 6.4% | +62.6% | +14.3% |
| Jul 2024 | Sep 2024 | 6 | 9.3% | +1.2% | -6.0% |
| Oct 2024 | Nov 2024 | 1 | 1.6% | -6.8% | -10.1% |
| Dec 2024 | Dec 2024 | 2 | 6.6% | -22.4% | -7.1% |
| Feb 2025 | Ongoing | 53+ | 32.6% | Ongoing | -11.6% |
| Average | 36 | — | +7.0% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02