EPM

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YES
17.3% BELOW
↑ Moving away Was -20.6% last week
-15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15%+
Buy Threshold $4.96
14-Week RSI 47

Evolution Petroleum Corporation (EPM) closed at $4.10 as of 2026-02-02, trading 17.3% below its 200-week moving average of $4.96. This places EPM in the extreme value zone. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from -20.6% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 47, indicating neutral momentum.

Over the past 1508 weeks of data, EPM has crossed below its 200-week moving average 23 times. On average, these episodes lasted 36 weeks. Historically, investors who bought EPM at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +7.0%.

With a market cap of $144 million, EPM is a small-cap stock. Free cash flow yield is currently negative, meaning the company is burning cash. Return on equity stands at 0.3%. The stock trades at 2.0x book value.

Share count has increased 2.6% over three years, indicating dilution.

Over the past 29 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in EPM would have grown to $0, compared to $1512 for the S&P 500. EPM has returned -18.2% annualized vs 9.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.

Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.

Growth of $100: EPM vs S&P 500

Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.

What Happens After EPM Crosses Below the Line?

Across 23 historical episodes, buying EPM when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +5.9% after 12 months (median +1.0%), compared to +8.5% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 52% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +4.4% vs +21.9% for the index.

Each line shows $100 invested at the moment EPM crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.

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Historical Touches

EPM has crossed below its 200-week MA 23 times with an average 1-year return of +7.0% after recovery.

Crossed BelowRecoveredWeeksMax Depth1-Year ReturnReturn Since Touch
Mar 1997Sep 200018296.7%-37.5%-99.8%
Sep 2000Feb 200628299.9%-85.7%-99.4%
Aug 2007Sep 200724.8%+69.3%+280.5%
Sep 2008Jul 20094358.3%+13.5%+214.6%
Aug 2009Sep 200939.3%+54.4%+187.0%
Sep 2009Oct 200911.3%+111.5%+177.3%
Sep 2014Oct 201446.5%-32.9%-12.7%
Nov 2014Nov 201610453.9%-31.1%-12.3%
Mar 2017Mar 201711.5%+9.3%-5.1%
May 2017May 201715.5%+35.5%-0.6%
May 2017Jun 201712.1%+39.5%-3.2%
Aug 2017Oct 2017109.8%+43.6%-1.4%
Nov 2017Nov 201713.7%+47.4%+3.2%
Dec 2017Jan 201844.0%+26.3%+3.9%
Dec 2018Dec 201813.9%-7.1%+2.4%
Mar 2019Apr 201960.8%-23.9%-2.5%
May 2019Jun 2019511.0%-60.4%-1.0%
Jul 2019Sep 202111665.7%-52.9%-1.6%
Nov 2021Dec 202156.4%+62.6%+14.3%
Jul 2024Sep 202469.3%+1.2%-6.0%
Oct 2024Nov 202411.6%-6.8%-10.1%
Dec 2024Dec 202426.6%-22.4%-7.1%
Feb 2025Ongoing53+32.6%Ongoing-11.6%
Average36+7.0%

Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02