EOG
EOG Resources Inc. Energy - Oil & Gas E&P Investor Relations →
EOG Resources Inc. (EOG) closed at $129.98 as of 2026-06-19, trading 13.1% above its 200-week moving average of $114.97. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 19.0% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 48, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.5x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.90 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1867 weeks of data, EOG has crossed below its 200-week moving average 27 times. On average, these episodes lasted 16 weeks. Historically, investors who bought EOG at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +17.5%.
With a market cap of $69.2 billion, EOG is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 4.1%. Return on equity stands at 18.2%, a solid level. The stock trades at 2.2x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 8.5% over the past three years. EOG passes our Buffett quality screen: high return on equity, low debt, and positive free cash flow.
Over the past 33.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in EOG would have grown to $5119, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 12.5% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming EOG as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -17.3% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: EOG vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After EOG Crosses Below the Line?
Across 26 historical episodes, buying EOG when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +13.9% after 12 months (median +15.0%), compared to +16.2% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 75% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +29.4% vs +36.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment EOG crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices EOG would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where EOG's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $118.06 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $132.92 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $152.06 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $177.63 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $213.55 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from EOG's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
EOG has crossed below its 200-week MA 27 times with an average 1-year return of +17.5% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1990 | Aug 1991 | 38 | 23.8% | -4.6% | +7256.7% |
| Nov 1991 | Apr 1992 | 20 | 18.6% | +31.4% | +7346.6% |
| Feb 1997 | Aug 1997 | 26 | 22.2% | -0.6% | +3643.6% |
| Oct 1997 | Mar 1998 | 21 | 14.6% | -21.6% | +3561.7% |
| May 1998 | Jul 1999 | 62 | 38.7% | -7.8% | +3660.1% |
| Sep 1999 | Mar 2000 | 27 | 31.8% | +82.5% | +3631.3% |
| Oct 2008 | Oct 2008 | 3 | 20.3% | +51.6% | +531.6% |
| Nov 2008 | Sep 2009 | 43 | 35.2% | +16.7% | +402.8% |
| Aug 2011 | Oct 2011 | 10 | 22.7% | +27.9% | +320.9% |
| Nov 2011 | Nov 2011 | 1 | 1.2% | +31.8% | +304.8% |
| Jun 2012 | Jun 2012 | 1 | 2.8% | +49.8% | +318.5% |
| Aug 2015 | Aug 2015 | 3 | 1.8% | +23.3% | +143.7% |
| Sep 2015 | Sep 2015 | 1 | 4.5% | +24.4% | +147.0% |
| Dec 2015 | Apr 2016 | 19 | 19.4% | +43.4% | +139.6% |
| May 2016 | May 2016 | 2 | 1.5% | +16.3% | +126.9% |
| May 2016 | Jun 2016 | 1 | 0.7% | +13.3% | +124.0% |
| Jul 2016 | Jul 2016 | 1 | 0.2% | +15.5% | +120.0% |
| Jun 2017 | Jul 2017 | 4 | 0.9% | +29.9% | +100.3% |
| Aug 2017 | Sep 2017 | 5 | 5.2% | +39.6% | +99.9% |
| Dec 2018 | Dec 2018 | 2 | 6.6% | -4.2% | +101.1% |
| Feb 2019 | Feb 2019 | 1 | 1.1% | -18.6% | +89.3% |
| Mar 2019 | Mar 2019 | 2 | 7.6% | -35.2% | +102.6% |
| Apr 2019 | May 2021 | 105 | 62.8% | -50.0% | +92.3% |
| Jul 2021 | Sep 2021 | 10 | 16.6% | +42.7% | +125.1% |
| Apr 2025 | Apr 2025 | 1 | 0.1% | +30.1% | +25.2% |
| May 2025 | Jun 2025 | 1 | 0.7% | +27.2% | +24.0% |
| Sep 2025 | Feb 2026 | 18 | 10.1% | N/A | +20.5% |
| Average | 16 | — | +17.5% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is EOG below its 200-week moving average?
No. EOG Resources Inc. (EOG) is currently 13.1% above its 200-week moving average of $114.97. It would need to fall to $114.97 to cross below the line.
What is EOG's 200-week moving average price?
EOG Resources Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $114.97 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when EOG drops below its 200-week moving average?
EOG has crossed below its 200-week moving average 27 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +17.5%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 16 weeks on average.
Is EOG a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about EOG as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 48. Free cash flow yield is 4.1%. Return on equity is 18.2%. Price-to-book is 2.2x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does EOG compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.5 years, $100 invested in EOG would have grown to $5119, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That's 12.5% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. EOG has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does EOG pay a dividend?
Yes. EOG Resources Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 309.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19