EMN
Eastman Chemical Company Materials - Chemicals Investor Relations →
Eastman Chemical Company (EMN) closed at $69.95 as of 2026-07-31, trading 8.6% below its 200-week moving average of $76.50. This places EMN in the deep value zone. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from -10.8% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 48, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.5x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.07 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1654 weeks of data, EMN has crossed below its 200-week moving average 33 times. On average, these episodes lasted 16 weeks. Historically, investors who bought EMN at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +9.4%.
Over the past 31.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in EMN would have grown to $818, compared to $2859 for the S&P 500. EMN has returned 6.8% annualized vs 11.1% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
In the past 12 months, corporate insiders have made 10 open-market purchases totaling $1,825,337. Multiple insiders purchased within a 30-day window — a cluster buy pattern that historically signals management confidence in the company's prospects. Notably, these purchases occurred while EMN is trading below its 200-week moving average — insiders are buying when the market is most pessimistic.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 5.2% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation. A business generating more cash every year while trading below its 200-week moving average is exactly the kind of disconnect value investors look for.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: EMN vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After EMN Crosses Below the Line?
Across 33 historical episodes, buying EMN when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +10.9% after 12 months (median +10.0%), compared to +15.7% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 79% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +27.6% vs +34.3% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment EMN crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices EMN would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where EMN's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $66.58 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $71.66 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $77.57 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $84.55 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $92.92 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from EMN's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
EMN has crossed below its 200-week MA 33 times with an average 1-year return of +9.4% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1994 | Nov 1994 | 1 | 1.3% | +47.8% | +771.9% |
| Jul 1996 | Aug 1996 | 6 | 5.1% | +11.3% | +612.9% |
| Oct 1996 | Nov 1996 | 3 | 2.7% | +24.7% | +622.5% |
| Mar 1997 | May 1997 | 7 | 3.4% | +33.6% | +602.8% |
| Aug 1998 | Oct 1998 | 9 | 12.1% | -5.0% | +547.0% |
| Dec 1998 | Apr 1999 | 19 | 28.1% | +4.2% | +668.7% |
| May 1999 | Apr 2000 | 49 | 30.6% | +6.3% | +576.9% |
| May 2000 | Dec 2000 | 30 | 27.2% | +8.9% | +587.0% |
| Jan 2001 | Feb 2001 | 5 | 10.4% | -5.3% | +595.7% |
| Mar 2001 | Mar 2001 | 1 | 0.9% | +8.5% | +582.9% |
| Jun 2001 | Feb 2002 | 36 | 32.8% | +1.6% | +578.9% |
| Jul 2002 | Jul 2002 | 1 | 4.3% | -11.7% | +656.9% |
| Sep 2002 | Dec 2003 | 63 | 27.3% | -11.7% | +659.5% |
| Sep 2008 | Aug 2009 | 44 | 65.6% | +4.6% | +372.6% |
| Aug 2009 | Sep 2009 | 1 | 0.8% | +35.2% | +355.4% |
| Sep 2009 | Oct 2009 | 1 | 0.2% | +52.9% | +352.0% |
| Sep 2015 | Oct 2015 | 2 | 2.4% | +0.8% | +49.7% |
| Nov 2015 | Nov 2015 | 1 | 0.5% | +12.6% | +45.3% |
| Dec 2015 | Mar 2016 | 13 | 13.2% | +16.7% | +46.8% |
| Jun 2016 | Nov 2016 | 20 | 11.1% | +24.5% | +42.9% |
| Nov 2018 | Jan 2019 | 8 | 10.5% | +3.3% | +19.2% |
| Mar 2019 | Apr 2019 | 2 | 3.0% | -43.4% | +21.2% |
| May 2019 | Jun 2019 | 7 | 16.5% | -14.1% | +20.2% |
| Jul 2019 | Oct 2019 | 13 | 20.4% | +10.6% | +28.2% |
| Nov 2019 | Dec 2019 | 3 | 0.7% | +29.8% | +15.4% |
| Dec 2019 | Aug 2020 | 35 | 46.7% | +37.5% | +16.9% |
| Sep 2022 | Nov 2022 | 10 | 16.9% | +3.8% | +2.7% |
| Dec 2022 | Jan 2023 | 4 | 4.8% | +3.6% | -4.6% |
| Feb 2023 | Jul 2023 | 20 | 8.8% | +7.4% | -4.0% |
| Jul 2023 | Dec 2023 | 20 | 17.5% | +20.9% | -8.6% |
| Jan 2024 | Mar 2024 | 8 | 6.2% | +3.8% | -10.9% |
| Dec 2024 | Jan 2025 | 2 | 3.6% | -24.1% | -15.5% |
| Mar 2025 | Ongoing | 72+ | 31.9% | Ongoing | -16.3% |
| Average | 16 | — | +9.4% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is EMN below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-07-31, Eastman Chemical Company (EMN) is trading 8.6% below its 200-week moving average of $76.50. The current price is $69.95.
What is EMN's 200-week moving average price?
Eastman Chemical Company's 200-week moving average is $76.50 as of 2026-07-31. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when EMN drops below its 200-week moving average?
EMN has crossed below its 200-week moving average 33 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +9.4%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 16 weeks on average.
Is EMN a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about EMN as of 2026-07-31: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 48. Price-to-book is 1.3x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does EMN compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 31.8 years, $100 invested in EMN would have grown to $818, compared to $2859 for the S&P 500. That's 6.8% annualized vs 11.1% for the index. EMN has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does EMN pay a dividend?
Yes. Eastman Chemical Company currently pays a dividend yield of 480.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-31