EME
EMCOR Group, Inc. Industrials - Construction & Engineering Investor Relations →
EMCOR Group, Inc. (EME) closed at $780.66 as of 2026-09-11, trading 80.5% above its 200-week moving average of $432.43. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 75.7% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 45, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 0.6x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.85 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1604 weeks of data, EME has crossed below its 200-week moving average 18 times. On average, these episodes lasted 12 weeks. Historically, investors who bought EME at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +36.7%.
With a market cap of $34.4 billion, EME is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 2.8%. Return on equity stands at 40.3%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 8.5x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 6.6% over the past three years. EME passes our Buffett quality screen: high return on equity, low debt, and positive free cash flow.
Over the past 30.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in EME would have grown to $35197, compared to $2104 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 20.9% vs 10.4% for the index — confirming EME as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 38.4% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: EME vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After EME Crosses Below the Line?
Across 18 historical episodes, buying EME when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +36.1% after 12 months (median +32.0%), compared to +16.5% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 89% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +73.6% vs +28.8% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment EME crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices EME would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where EME's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-10-29.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $723.64 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $768.11 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $818.42 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $875.77 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $941.77 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30 | $7.23 | $9.06 | +25.3% |
| 2026-04-29 | $5.90 | $6.84 | +15.8% |
| 2026-02-26 | $6.68 | $7.19 | +7.6% |
| 2025-10-30 | $6.53 | $6.57 | +0.7% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from EME's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
EME has crossed below its 200-week MA 18 times with an average 1-year return of +36.7% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 1998 | Sep 1998 | 3 | 6.1% | +64.3% | +25711.0% |
| Oct 1998 | Oct 1998 | 1 | 4.4% | +41.1% | +25228.6% |
| Sep 2003 | Nov 2003 | 8 | 15.2% | +11.2% | +9637.6% |
| Jan 2004 | May 2004 | 17 | 13.9% | +4.0% | +8201.1% |
| Jul 2004 | Nov 2004 | 20 | 14.2% | +18.3% | +7954.4% |
| Dec 2004 | Dec 2004 | 1 | 1.7% | +60.1% | +7616.9% |
| Jan 2005 | Feb 2005 | 7 | 6.2% | +74.1% | +7937.2% |
| Apr 2005 | May 2005 | 5 | 3.0% | +130.2% | +7564.5% |
| Jan 2008 | Feb 2008 | 5 | 3.8% | -2.0% | +4047.5% |
| Sep 2008 | Sep 2009 | 49 | 47.7% | +5.1% | +3617.8% |
| Sep 2009 | Dec 2009 | 12 | 7.7% | -0.6% | +3349.8% |
| Jan 2010 | Apr 2010 | 12 | 11.0% | +16.6% | +3182.7% |
| May 2010 | Jul 2010 | 11 | 10.7% | +21.9% | +3226.5% |
| Aug 2010 | Oct 2010 | 9 | 10.4% | -0.3% | +3476.5% |
| Aug 2011 | Nov 2011 | 17 | 24.0% | +10.1% | +3335.8% |
| Dec 2018 | Jan 2019 | 3 | 5.2% | +53.5% | +1281.9% |
| Mar 2020 | Aug 2020 | 21 | 31.2% | +84.4% | +1171.4% |
| Aug 2020 | Nov 2020 | 9 | 9.4% | +69.1% | +999.3% |
| Average | 12 | — | +36.7% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is EME below its 200-week moving average?
No. EMCOR Group, Inc. (EME) is currently 80.5% above its 200-week moving average of $432.43. It would need to fall to $432.43 to cross below the line.
What is EME's 200-week moving average price?
EMCOR Group, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $432.43 as of 2026-09-11. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when EME drops below its 200-week moving average?
EME has crossed below its 200-week moving average 18 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +36.7%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 12 weeks on average.
Is EME a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about EME as of 2026-09-11: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 45. Free cash flow yield is 2.8%. Return on equity is 40.3%. Price-to-book is 8.5x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does EME compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 30.8 years, $100 invested in EME would have grown to $35197, compared to $2104 for the S&P 500. That's 20.9% annualized vs 10.4% for the index. EME has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does EME pay a dividend?
Yes. EMCOR Group, Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 20.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-11