ELV
Elevance Health Inc. Healthcare - Insurance Investor Relations →
Elevance Health Inc. (ELV) closed at $410.95 as of 2026-09-18, trading 0.5% below its 200-week moving average of $412.79. This places ELV in the below line zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 1.4% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 53, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.4x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.82 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1250 weeks of data, ELV has crossed below its 200-week moving average 10 times. On average, these episodes lasted 26 weeks. Historically, investors who bought ELV at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +27.7%.
With a market cap of $89.1 billion, ELV is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 4.8%. Return on equity stands at 11.1%. The stock trades at 2.0x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 7.2% over the past three years.
Over the past 24 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in ELV would have grown to $1645, compared to $1331 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 12.4% vs 11.4% for the index — confirming ELV as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
In the past 12 months, corporate insiders have made 3 open-market purchases totaling $2,237,800. Notably, these purchases occurred while ELV is trading below its 200-week moving average — insiders are buying when the market is most pessimistic.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -24.1% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: ELV vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After ELV Crosses Below the Line?
Across 10 historical episodes, buying ELV when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +31.8% after 12 months (median +43.0%), compared to +22.1% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 80% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +85.2% vs +38.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment ELV crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices ELV would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where ELV's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-10-21.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $333.63 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $393.48 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $479.51 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $613.68 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $852.11 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-15 | $6.21 | $7.45 | +20.0% |
| 2026-04-22 | $10.81 | $12.58 | +16.4% |
| 2026-01-28 | $3.09 | $3.33 | +7.7% |
| 2025-10-21 | $4.94 | $6.03 | +22.0% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from ELV's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
ELV has crossed below its 200-week MA 10 times with an average 1-year return of +27.7% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2002 | Dec 2002 | 2 | 2.0% | +14.7% | +1655.8% |
| Jan 2003 | Jan 2003 | 1 | 0.3% | +21.8% | +1629.1% |
| Feb 2003 | Mar 2003 | 6 | 10.1% | +44.1% | +1705.0% |
| Mar 2008 | Jan 2010 | 96 | 57.2% | -53.2% | +677.5% |
| Feb 2010 | Mar 2010 | 6 | 6.9% | +5.5% | +745.9% |
| Apr 2010 | Jan 2011 | 39 | 22.5% | +13.0% | +751.8% |
| Jul 2012 | Aug 2012 | 2 | 2.9% | +57.1% | +824.7% |
| Nov 2012 | Dec 2012 | 5 | 4.9% | +58.6% | +803.2% |
| Mar 2020 | Apr 2020 | 3 | 12.5% | +87.3% | +135.2% |
| Oct 2024 | Ongoing | 101+ | 39.0% | Ongoing | -0.9% |
| Average | 26 | — | +27.7% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ELV below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-09-18, Elevance Health Inc. (ELV) is trading 0.5% below its 200-week moving average of $412.79. The current price is $410.95.
What is ELV's 200-week moving average price?
Elevance Health Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $412.79 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when ELV drops below its 200-week moving average?
ELV has crossed below its 200-week moving average 10 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +27.7%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 26 weeks on average.
Is ELV a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about ELV as of 2026-09-18: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 53. Free cash flow yield is 4.8%. Return on equity is 11.1%. Price-to-book is 2.0x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does ELV compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 24 years, $100 invested in ELV would have grown to $1645, compared to $1331 for the S&P 500. That's 12.4% annualized vs 11.4% for the index. ELV has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does ELV pay a dividend?
Yes. Elevance Health Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 167.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18