ELV
Elevance Health Inc. Healthcare - Insurance Investor Relations →
Elevance Health Inc. (ELV) closed at $388.50 as of 2026-06-19, trading 7.2% below its 200-week moving average of $418.50. This places ELV in the deep value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -3.9% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 80, ELV is in overbought territory.
Trading volume is running at 1.0x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.07 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1237 weeks of data, ELV has crossed below its 200-week moving average 10 times. On average, these episodes lasted 25 weeks. Historically, investors who bought ELV at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +27.7%.
With a market cap of $84.4 billion, ELV is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 5.1%, which is healthy. Return on equity stands at 12.1%. The stock trades at 1.9x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 7.2% over the past three years.
Over the past 23.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in ELV would have grown to $1548, compared to $1301 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 12.2% vs 11.4% for the index — confirming ELV as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
In the past 12 months, corporate insiders have made 3 open-market purchases totaling $3,683,051. Notably, these purchases occurred while ELV is trading below its 200-week moving average — insiders are buying when the market is most pessimistic.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -24.1% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: ELV vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After ELV Crosses Below the Line?
Across 10 historical episodes, buying ELV when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +31.8% after 12 months (median +43.0%), compared to +22.2% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 80% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +85.2% vs +38.1% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment ELV crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices ELV would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where ELV's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-07-16.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $252.16 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $280.95 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $317.16 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $364.08 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $427.31 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from ELV's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
ELV has crossed below its 200-week MA 10 times with an average 1-year return of +27.7% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2002 | Dec 2002 | 2 | 2.0% | +14.7% | +1552.7% |
| Jan 2003 | Jan 2003 | 1 | 0.3% | +21.8% | +1527.5% |
| Feb 2003 | Mar 2003 | 6 | 10.1% | +44.1% | +1599.0% |
| Mar 2008 | Jan 2010 | 96 | 57.2% | -53.2% | +631.8% |
| Feb 2010 | Mar 2010 | 6 | 6.9% | +5.5% | +696.2% |
| Apr 2010 | Jan 2011 | 39 | 22.5% | +13.0% | +701.8% |
| Jul 2012 | Aug 2012 | 2 | 2.8% | +57.1% | +770.4% |
| Nov 2012 | Dec 2012 | 5 | 4.9% | +58.6% | +750.1% |
| Mar 2020 | Apr 2020 | 3 | 12.5% | +87.3% | +121.4% |
| Oct 2024 | Ongoing | 88+ | 39.0% | Ongoing | -6.7% |
| Average | 25 | — | +27.7% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ELV below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-06-19, Elevance Health Inc. (ELV) is trading 7.2% below its 200-week moving average of $418.50. The current price is $388.50.
What is ELV's 200-week moving average price?
Elevance Health Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $418.50 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when ELV drops below its 200-week moving average?
ELV has crossed below its 200-week moving average 10 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +27.7%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 25 weeks on average.
Is ELV a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about ELV as of 2026-06-19: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 80 (overbought). Free cash flow yield is 5.1%. Return on equity is 12.1%. Price-to-book is 1.9x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does ELV compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 23.8 years, $100 invested in ELV would have grown to $1548, compared to $1301 for the S&P 500. That's 12.2% annualized vs 11.4% for the index. ELV has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does ELV pay a dividend?
Yes. Elevance Health Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 173.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19