ELME
Elme Communities Real Estate - Residential Investor Relations →
Elme Communities (ELME) closed at $1.61 as of 2026-07-31, trading 29.8% below its 200-week moving average of $2.29. This places ELME in the extreme value zone. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from -35.1% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 26, ELME is in oversold territory.
Trading volume is running at 0.9x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.74 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2371 weeks of data, ELME has crossed below its 200-week moving average 31 times. On average, these episodes lasted 19 weeks. Historically, investors who bought ELME at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +5.9%.
With a market cap of $143 million, ELME is a small-cap stock. The stock trades at 0.2x book value.
Over the past 33.6 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in ELME would have grown to $275, compared to $3098 for the S&P 500. ELME has returned 3.1% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 2.2% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation. A business generating more cash every year while trading below its 200-week moving average is exactly the kind of disconnect value investors look for.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: ELME vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After ELME Crosses Below the Line?
Across 26 historical episodes, buying ELME when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +4.2% after 12 months (median +0.0%), compared to +6.6% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 48% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +7.9% vs +25.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment ELME crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from ELME's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
ELME has crossed below its 200-week MA 31 times with an average 1-year return of +5.9% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 1981 | Oct 1981 | 3 | 16.2% | -7.6% | +1945.8% |
| Oct 1981 | Oct 1981 | 1 | 1.5% | +18.7% | +1907.6% |
| Dec 1981 | Dec 1981 | 1 | 1.7% | +17.8% | +1907.6% |
| Dec 1981 | Sep 1982 | 39 | 11.1% | +21.0% | +1945.8% |
| Sep 1990 | Nov 1990 | 10 | 12.8% | +38.4% | +517.4% |
| Nov 1994 | Oct 1996 | 103 | 14.8% | +5.6% | +243.0% |
| Dec 1999 | Dec 1999 | 1 | 1.3% | +65.7% | +162.4% |
| Jul 2007 | Aug 2007 | 2 | 3.0% | +18.0% | -15.0% |
| Dec 2007 | Dec 2007 | 1 | 0.4% | -11.0% | -18.9% |
| Dec 2007 | Jan 2008 | 4 | 12.2% | -0.1% | -15.1% |
| Jun 2008 | Jul 2008 | 3 | 4.1% | -21.6% | -20.9% |
| Oct 2008 | Mar 2010 | 72 | 48.9% | +4.5% | -17.3% |
| May 2010 | Jun 2010 | 1 | 0.7% | +28.6% | -22.5% |
| Nov 2011 | Nov 2011 | 1 | 1.4% | +5.1% | -23.8% |
| Nov 2012 | Nov 2012 | 2 | 2.9% | +2.0% | -26.5% |
| Jun 2013 | Jun 2013 | 1 | 1.3% | +7.5% | -30.6% |
| Aug 2013 | Oct 2013 | 9 | 7.3% | +14.9% | -27.3% |
| Nov 2013 | May 2014 | 29 | 12.5% | +18.7% | -28.0% |
| Apr 2015 | May 2015 | 1 | 0.0% | +21.4% | -33.6% |
| Aug 2015 | Sep 2015 | 2 | 2.6% | +43.1% | -32.2% |
| Feb 2018 | Mar 2018 | 7 | 6.0% | +1.7% | -44.5% |
| Nov 2018 | Mar 2019 | 14 | 14.9% | +20.5% | -47.2% |
| May 2019 | Jun 2019 | 3 | 2.5% | -27.3% | -48.6% |
| Jun 2019 | Jul 2019 | 1 | 1.4% | -14.7% | -48.5% |
| Jul 2019 | Sep 2019 | 8 | 4.4% | -15.0% | -49.3% |
| Feb 2020 | May 2021 | 66 | 32.1% | -11.6% | -49.8% |
| Jun 2021 | Jul 2021 | 3 | 6.4% | -1.0% | -44.7% |
| Feb 2022 | Feb 2022 | 2 | 1.0% | -15.9% | -47.6% |
| May 2022 | May 2022 | 3 | 3.2% | -24.5% | -46.4% |
| Jun 2022 | Aug 2025 | 165 | 35.5% | -25.1% | -44.2% |
| Jan 2026 | Ongoing | 27+ | 36.2% | Ongoing | -26.8% |
| Average | 19 | — | +5.9% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ELME below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-07-31, Elme Communities (ELME) is trading 29.8% below its 200-week moving average of $2.29. The current price is $1.61.
What is ELME's 200-week moving average price?
Elme Communities's 200-week moving average is $2.29 as of 2026-07-31. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when ELME drops below its 200-week moving average?
ELME has crossed below its 200-week moving average 31 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +5.9%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 19 weeks on average.
Is ELME a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about ELME as of 2026-07-31: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 26 (oversold). Price-to-book is 0.2x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does ELME compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.6 years, $100 invested in ELME would have grown to $275, compared to $3098 for the S&P 500. That's 3.1% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. ELME has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does ELME pay a dividend?
Yes. Elme Communities currently pays a dividend yield of 4444.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-31