EL
The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. Consumer Staples - Personal Care Investor Relations →
The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. (EL) closed at $83.90 as of 2026-07-31, trading 31.8% below its 200-week moving average of $123.06. This places EL in the extreme value zone. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from -35.1% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 56, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 0.8x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.15 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1554 weeks of data, EL has crossed below its 200-week moving average 17 times. On average, these episodes lasted 24 weeks. Historically, investors who bought EL at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +7.8%.
Return on equity stands at -5.9%. The stock trades at 7.6x book value.
Over the past 29.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in EL would have grown to $1061, compared to $1758 for the S&P 500. EL has returned 8.2% annualized vs 10.1% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -30.5% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: EL vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After EL Crosses Below the Line?
Across 17 historical episodes, buying EL when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +0.9% after 12 months (median +10.0%), compared to +3.0% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 53% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +9.0% vs +9.5% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment EL crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices EL would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where EL's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $55.27 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $62.70 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $72.43 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $85.74 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $105.05 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from EL's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
EL has crossed below its 200-week MA 17 times with an average 1-year return of +7.8% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1997 | Oct 1997 | 1 | 1.1% | +43.8% | +988.1% |
| Oct 2000 | Oct 2000 | 1 | 2.1% | -5.0% | +546.6% |
| Mar 2001 | Apr 2001 | 6 | 9.3% | -10.2% | +516.5% |
| Jul 2001 | Aug 2001 | 3 | 2.4% | -26.5% | +476.6% |
| Aug 2001 | Oct 2003 | 113 | 34.5% | -22.5% | +482.5% |
| Sep 2005 | Jan 2006 | 19 | 11.8% | +12.8% | +520.8% |
| Apr 2006 | Apr 2006 | 2 | 1.7% | +40.2% | +503.4% |
| Jul 2006 | Jul 2006 | 2 | 2.4% | +29.7% | +490.8% |
| Aug 2006 | Sep 2006 | 5 | 6.8% | +19.3% | +490.6% |
| Aug 2007 | Aug 2007 | 1 | 0.5% | +30.6% | +432.3% |
| Sep 2007 | Sep 2007 | 1 | 1.3% | +34.9% | +435.3% |
| Jan 2008 | Jan 2008 | 3 | 4.3% | -19.5% | +446.7% |
| Oct 2008 | Oct 2009 | 52 | 47.0% | +1.9% | +433.1% |
| Nov 2016 | Jan 2017 | 5 | 1.3% | +66.8% | +24.8% |
| Sep 2022 | Nov 2022 | 10 | 14.0% | -34.7% | -60.9% |
| Feb 2023 | Apr 2023 | 7 | 3.6% | -37.2% | -63.2% |
| May 2023 | Ongoing | 170+ | 72.4% | Ongoing | -56.3% |
| Average | 24 | — | +7.8% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is EL below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-07-31, The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. (EL) is trading 31.8% below its 200-week moving average of $123.06. The current price is $83.90.
What is EL's 200-week moving average price?
The Estée Lauder Companies Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $123.06 as of 2026-07-31. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when EL drops below its 200-week moving average?
EL has crossed below its 200-week moving average 17 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +7.8%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 24 weeks on average.
Is EL a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about EL as of 2026-07-31: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 56. Return on equity is -5.9%. Price-to-book is 7.6x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does EL compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 29.8 years, $100 invested in EL would have grown to $1061, compared to $1758 for the S&P 500. That's 8.2% annualized vs 10.1% for the index. EL has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does EL pay a dividend?
Yes. The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 165.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-31