EL

The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. Consumer Staples - Personal Care Investor Relations →

YES
40.6% BELOW
↑ Moving away Was -42.1% last week
-15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15%+
Buy Threshold $133.49
14-Week RSI 29 📉
Rel. Volume (14w) This week's trading vs. the 14-week average 1.2x
Buyers vs. Sellers (14w) Are up-weeks or down-weeks getting more volume? 0.80

The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. (EL) closed at $79.30 as of 2026-05-01, trading 40.6% below its 200-week moving average of $133.49. This places EL in the extreme value zone. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from -42.1% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 29, EL is in oversold territory.

Trading volume is running at 1.2x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.80 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.

Over the past 1541 weeks of data, EL has crossed below its 200-week moving average 18 times. On average, these episodes lasted 21 weeks. Historically, investors who bought EL at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +8.4%.

With a market cap of $28.7 billion, EL is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 5.9%, which is healthy. Return on equity stands at -4.3%. The stock trades at 7.1x book value.

Over the past 29.6 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in EL would have grown to $999, compared to $1687 for the S&P 500. EL has returned 8.1% annualized vs 10.0% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.

Free cash flow has been declining at a -30.5% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.

Business Health

Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.

Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)

Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy

Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)

ROIC Return on invested capital (%)

FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal

Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)

Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)

Growth of $100: EL vs S&P 500

Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.

What Happens After EL Crosses Below the Line?

Across 18 historical episodes, buying EL when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +1.8% after 12 months (median +12.0%), compared to +3.3% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 56% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +7.9% vs +10.0% for the index.

Each line shows $100 invested at the moment EL crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.

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Historical Touches

EL has crossed below its 200-week MA 18 times with an average 1-year return of +8.4% after recovery.

Crossed BelowRecoveredWeeksMax Depth1-Year ReturnReturn Since Touch
Oct 1997Oct 199711.1%+43.8%+924.5%
Oct 2000Oct 200012.1%-5.0%+508.8%
Mar 2001Apr 200169.3%-10.2%+481.2%
Jul 2001Aug 200132.4%-26.5%+442.8%
Aug 2001Oct 200311034.5%-22.5%+448.4%
Oct 2003Oct 200310.8%+18.9%+480.0%
Sep 2005Jan 20061911.8%+12.8%+484.5%
Apr 2006Apr 200621.7%+40.2%+468.1%
Jul 2006Jul 200622.4%+29.7%+456.2%
Aug 2006Sep 200656.7%+19.3%+456.1%
Aug 2007Aug 200710.5%+30.6%+401.2%
Sep 2007Sep 200711.3%+34.9%+404.0%
Jan 2008Jan 200834.3%-19.5%+414.7%
Oct 2008Oct 20095247.0%+1.9%+401.9%
Nov 2016Jan 201751.7%+67.0%+18.0%
Sep 2022Nov 20221014.0%-34.7%-63.2%
Feb 2023Apr 202373.6%-37.2%-65.4%
May 2023Ongoing157+72.4%Ongoing-58.8%
Average21+8.4%

Frequently Asked Questions

Is EL below its 200-week moving average?

Yes. As of 2026-05-01, The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. (EL) is trading 40.6% below its 200-week moving average of $133.49. The current price is $79.30.

What is EL's 200-week moving average price?

The Estée Lauder Companies Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $133.49 as of 2026-05-01. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.

What happens when EL drops below its 200-week moving average?

EL has crossed below its 200-week moving average 18 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +8.4%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 21 weeks on average.

Is EL a good value right now?

Here's what our data says about EL as of 2026-05-01: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 29 (oversold). Free cash flow yield is 5.9%. Return on equity is -4.3%. Price-to-book is 7.1x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.

How does EL compare to the S&P 500?

Over the past 29.6 years, $100 invested in EL would have grown to $999, compared to $1687 for the S&P 500. That's 8.1% annualized vs 10.0% for the index. EL has underperformed the broader market over this period.

Does EL pay a dividend?

Yes. The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 183.00%.

Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Data as of week of 2026-05-01