EL
The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. Consumer Staples - Personal Care Investor Relations →
The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. (EL) closed at $84.81 as of 2026-06-19, trading 33.4% below its 200-week moving average of $127.33. This places EL in the extreme value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -30.0% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 48, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.0x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.81 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1548 weeks of data, EL has crossed below its 200-week moving average 18 times. On average, these episodes lasted 22 weeks. Historically, investors who bought EL at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +8.4%.
With a market cap of $30.7 billion, EL is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 5.9%, which is healthy. Return on equity stands at -5.9%. The stock trades at 7.7x book value.
Over the past 29.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in EL would have grown to $1073, compared to $1758 for the S&P 500. EL has returned 8.3% annualized vs 10.1% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -30.5% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: EL vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After EL Crosses Below the Line?
Across 18 historical episodes, buying EL when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +1.8% after 12 months (median +12.0%), compared to +3.3% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 56% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +7.9% vs +10.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment EL crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices EL would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where EL's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $54.26 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $61.35 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $70.57 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $83.06 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $100.92 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from EL's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
EL has crossed below its 200-week MA 18 times with an average 1-year return of +8.4% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1997 | Oct 1997 | 1 | 1.1% | +43.8% | +999.9% |
| Oct 2000 | Oct 2000 | 1 | 2.1% | -5.0% | +553.6% |
| Mar 2001 | Apr 2001 | 6 | 9.3% | -10.2% | +524.0% |
| Jul 2001 | Aug 2001 | 3 | 2.4% | -26.5% | +482.8% |
| Aug 2001 | Oct 2003 | 110 | 34.5% | -22.5% | +488.8% |
| Oct 2003 | Oct 2003 | 1 | 0.8% | +18.9% | +522.7% |
| Sep 2005 | Jan 2006 | 19 | 11.8% | +12.8% | +527.5% |
| Apr 2006 | Apr 2006 | 2 | 1.7% | +40.2% | +510.0% |
| Jul 2006 | Jul 2006 | 2 | 2.4% | +29.7% | +497.2% |
| Aug 2006 | Sep 2006 | 5 | 6.7% | +19.3% | +497.0% |
| Aug 2007 | Aug 2007 | 1 | 0.5% | +30.6% | +438.1% |
| Sep 2007 | Sep 2007 | 1 | 1.3% | +34.9% | +441.1% |
| Jan 2008 | Jan 2008 | 3 | 4.3% | -19.5% | +452.6% |
| Oct 2008 | Oct 2009 | 52 | 47.0% | +1.9% | +438.8% |
| Nov 2016 | Jan 2017 | 5 | 1.7% | +67.0% | +26.7% |
| Sep 2022 | Nov 2022 | 10 | 14.0% | -34.7% | -60.5% |
| Feb 2023 | Apr 2023 | 7 | 3.6% | -37.2% | -62.8% |
| May 2023 | Ongoing | 164+ | 72.4% | Ongoing | -55.8% |
| Average | 22 | — | +8.4% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is EL below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-06-19, The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. (EL) is trading 33.4% below its 200-week moving average of $127.33. The current price is $84.81.
What is EL's 200-week moving average price?
The Estée Lauder Companies Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $127.33 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when EL drops below its 200-week moving average?
EL has crossed below its 200-week moving average 18 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +8.4%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 22 weeks on average.
Is EL a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about EL as of 2026-06-19: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 48. Free cash flow yield is 5.9%. Return on equity is -5.9%. Price-to-book is 7.7x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does EL compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 29.8 years, $100 invested in EL would have grown to $1073, compared to $1758 for the S&P 500. That's 8.3% annualized vs 10.1% for the index. EL has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19