EL
The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. Consumer Staples - Personal Care Investor Relations →
The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. (EL) closed at $99.47 as of 2026-02-02, trading 30.4% below its 200-week moving average of $142.98. This places EL in the extreme value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -19.8% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 52, indicating neutral momentum.
Over the past 1529 weeks of data, EL has crossed below its 200-week moving average 18 times. On average, these episodes lasted 21 weeks. Historically, investors who bought EL at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +8.4%.
With a market cap of $36.0 billion, EL is a large-cap stock. Return on equity stands at -4.3%. The stock trades at 8.9x book value.
Over the past 29.4 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in EL would have grown to $1249, compared to $1617 for the S&P 500. EL has returned 9.0% annualized vs 9.9% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -30.5% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Growth of $100: EL vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After EL Crosses Below the Line?
Across 18 historical episodes, buying EL when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +1.8% after 12 months (median +12.0%), compared to +3.3% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 56% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +7.9% vs +10.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment EL crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
EL has crossed below its 200-week MA 18 times with an average 1-year return of +8.4% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1997 | Oct 1997 | 1 | 1.1% | +43.8% | +1181.1% |
| Oct 2000 | Oct 2000 | 1 | 2.1% | -5.0% | +661.3% |
| Mar 2001 | Apr 2001 | 6 | 9.3% | -10.2% | +626.8% |
| Jul 2001 | Aug 2001 | 3 | 2.4% | -26.5% | +578.8% |
| Aug 2001 | Oct 2003 | 110 | 34.5% | -22.5% | +585.8% |
| Oct 2003 | Oct 2003 | 1 | 0.8% | +18.9% | +625.2% |
| Sep 2005 | Jan 2006 | 19 | 11.8% | +12.8% | +630.8% |
| Apr 2006 | Apr 2006 | 2 | 1.7% | +40.2% | +610.4% |
| Jul 2006 | Jul 2006 | 2 | 2.4% | +29.7% | +595.5% |
| Aug 2006 | Sep 2006 | 5 | 6.7% | +19.3% | +595.4% |
| Aug 2007 | Aug 2007 | 1 | 0.5% | +30.6% | +526.7% |
| Sep 2007 | Sep 2007 | 1 | 1.3% | +34.9% | +530.2% |
| Jan 2008 | Jan 2008 | 3 | 4.3% | -19.5% | +543.6% |
| Oct 2008 | Oct 2009 | 52 | 47.0% | +1.9% | +527.6% |
| Nov 2016 | Jan 2017 | 5 | 1.7% | +67.0% | +47.6% |
| Sep 2022 | Nov 2022 | 10 | 14.0% | -34.7% | -54.0% |
| Feb 2023 | Apr 2023 | 7 | 3.6% | -37.2% | -56.7% |
| May 2023 | Ongoing | 145+ | 72.4% | Ongoing | -48.5% |
| Average | 21 | — | +8.4% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02