EGBN
Eagle Bancorp, Inc. Financial Services - Banks - Regional Investor Relations →
Eagle Bancorp, Inc. (EGBN) closed at $28.32 as of 2026-09-18, trading 20.0% above its 200-week moving average of $23.61. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 16.7% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 49, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.9x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.46 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1370 weeks of data, EGBN has crossed below its 200-week moving average 15 times. On average, these episodes lasted 28 weeks. Historically, investors who bought EGBN at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +22.0%.
With a market cap of $863 million, EGBN is a small-cap stock. Return on equity stands at -4.1%. The stock trades at 0.8x book value.
Over the past 26.3 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in EGBN would have grown to $1389, compared to $835 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 10.5% vs 8.4% for the index — confirming EGBN as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -52.4% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: EGBN vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After EGBN Crosses Below the Line?
Across 15 historical episodes, buying EGBN when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +18.6% after 12 months (median -17.0%), compared to -0.5% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 46% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +39.5% vs +10.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment EGBN crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices EGBN would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where EGBN's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-10-21.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $26.69 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $27.13 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $27.59 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $28.06 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $28.55 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-22 | $0.34 | $0.23 | -33.1% |
| 2026-04-22 | $0.29 | $0.48 | +65.5% |
| 2026-01-21 | $-0.01 | $0.25 | +2600.0% |
| 2025-10-22 | $-0.79 | $-2.22 | -181.0% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from EGBN's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
EGBN has crossed below its 200-week MA 15 times with an average 1-year return of +22.0% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 2000 | Jul 2000 | 2 | 19.7% | +119.7% | +1582.8% |
| Aug 2000 | Aug 2000 | 1 | 1.7% | +114.2% | +1267.3% |
| Sep 2000 | Oct 2000 | 5 | 5.0% | +124.0% | +1267.3% |
| Oct 2000 | Nov 2000 | 1 | 4.1% | +80.3% | +1300.1% |
| Nov 2000 | Dec 2000 | 2 | 1.8% | +83.8% | +1267.3% |
| Aug 2007 | Feb 2010 | 133 | 58.2% | -47.4% | +205.7% |
| Jul 2010 | Jul 2010 | 1 | 2.4% | +33.5% | +274.9% |
| Sep 2018 | Jan 2019 | 16 | 12.6% | -11.1% | -28.3% |
| Mar 2019 | Apr 2019 | 5 | 10.0% | -48.1% | -26.3% |
| May 2019 | Feb 2021 | 93 | 53.2% | -46.9% | -33.1% |
| Sep 2022 | Oct 2022 | 5 | 6.3% | -50.1% | -26.0% |
| Dec 2022 | Jan 2023 | 3 | 4.6% | -23.7% | -22.2% |
| Feb 2023 | Jan 2026 | 152 | 59.9% | -41.6% | -24.6% |
| Feb 2026 | Mar 2026 | 5 | 4.9% | N/A | +11.4% |
| May 2026 | May 2026 | 1 | 0.9% | N/A | +15.8% |
| Average | 28 | — | +22.0% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is EGBN below its 200-week moving average?
No. Eagle Bancorp, Inc. (EGBN) is currently 20.0% above its 200-week moving average of $23.61. It would need to fall to $23.61 to cross below the line.
What is EGBN's 200-week moving average price?
Eagle Bancorp, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $23.61 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when EGBN drops below its 200-week moving average?
EGBN has crossed below its 200-week moving average 15 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +22.0%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 28 weeks on average.
Is EGBN a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about EGBN as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 49. Return on equity is -4.1%. Price-to-book is 0.8x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does EGBN compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 26.3 years, $100 invested in EGBN would have grown to $1389, compared to $835 for the S&P 500. That's 10.5% annualized vs 8.4% for the index. EGBN has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does EGBN pay a dividend?
Yes. Eagle Bancorp, Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 14.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18