EFX
Equifax Inc. Industrials - Consulting Services Investor Relations →
Equifax Inc. (EFX) closed at $158.87 as of 2026-09-18, trading 28.3% below its 200-week moving average of $221.66. This places EFX in the extreme value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -23.8% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 48, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.6x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.80 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2378 weeks of data, EFX has crossed below its 200-week moving average 28 times. On average, these episodes lasted 12 weeks. Historically, investors who bought EFX at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +27.9%.
With a market cap of $18.7 billion, EFX is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 5.1%, which is healthy. Return on equity stands at 14.3%. The stock trades at 4.3x book value.
Over the past 33.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in EFX would have grown to $4198, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 11.7% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming EFX as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 104.5% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation. A business generating more cash every year while trading below its 200-week moving average is exactly the kind of disconnect value investors look for.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: EFX vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After EFX Crosses Below the Line?
Across 25 historical episodes, buying EFX when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +18.0% after 12 months (median +25.0%), compared to +6.8% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 68% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +32.9% vs +14.2% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment EFX crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices EFX would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where EFX's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-10-20.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $144.97 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $155.03 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $166.59 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $180.02 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $195.79 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-21 | $2.20 | $2.25 | +2.3% |
| 2026-04-21 | $1.70 | $1.86 | +9.7% |
| 2026-02-04 | $2.05 | $2.09 | +1.8% |
| 2025-10-21 | $1.94 | $2.04 | +5.3% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from EFX's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
EFX has crossed below its 200-week MA 28 times with an average 1-year return of +27.9% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 1981 | Apr 1981 | 8 | 4.6% | +45.8% | +57583.0% |
| Dec 1981 | Dec 1981 | 1 | 1.5% | +121.6% | +54305.6% |
| Nov 1990 | Nov 1990 | 1 | 4.2% | +10.6% | +6627.7% |
| Oct 1991 | Oct 1991 | 1 | 8.9% | +21.7% | +6252.8% |
| Nov 1991 | Jan 1992 | 8 | 10.4% | +22.2% | +5829.3% |
| Jun 1992 | Aug 1992 | 9 | 6.8% | +30.9% | +5457.7% |
| Sep 1992 | Oct 1992 | 4 | 6.3% | +62.2% | +5368.8% |
| Aug 1999 | Oct 2000 | 61 | 32.9% | -8.2% | +1128.7% |
| Dec 2000 | Feb 2001 | 8 | 10.9% | +37.3% | +1074.0% |
| Feb 2001 | Feb 2001 | 1 | 1.8% | +52.2% | +1011.1% |
| Mar 2001 | Apr 2001 | 5 | 3.4% | +64.4% | +1017.0% |
| Feb 2003 | Mar 2003 | 5 | 6.2% | +35.5% | +898.7% |
| Apr 2003 | Apr 2003 | 1 | 1.3% | +37.8% | +901.2% |
| Jan 2008 | Jan 2008 | 2 | 4.6% | -16.1% | +496.6% |
| Feb 2008 | Feb 2008 | 1 | 0.9% | -27.2% | +471.1% |
| Feb 2008 | Apr 2008 | 7 | 2.1% | -36.8% | +464.8% |
| Jun 2008 | Aug 2008 | 7 | 5.3% | -24.1% | +457.6% |
| Aug 2008 | Mar 2010 | 80 | 42.6% | -19.6% | +451.0% |
| May 2010 | Oct 2010 | 24 | 14.8% | +23.2% | +505.1% |
| Aug 2011 | Oct 2011 | 8 | 7.9% | +51.0% | +507.6% |
| Sep 2017 | Sep 2017 | 1 | 8.2% | +48.9% | +85.8% |
| Oct 2018 | Mar 2019 | 22 | 20.7% | +43.8% | +75.5% |
| Mar 2020 | Apr 2020 | 3 | 14.4% | +66.4% | +58.4% |
| Sep 2022 | Nov 2022 | 7 | 14.4% | +6.9% | -6.2% |
| Aug 2023 | Aug 2023 | 1 | 1.3% | +53.1% | -15.1% |
| Sep 2023 | Nov 2023 | 8 | 17.4% | +62.2% | -12.2% |
| Mar 2025 | Apr 2025 | 3 | 8.1% | -12.4% | -23.2% |
| Oct 2025 | Ongoing | 49+ | 30.7% | Ongoing | -29.2% |
| Average | 12 | — | +27.9% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is EFX below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-09-18, Equifax Inc. (EFX) is trading 28.3% below its 200-week moving average of $221.66. The current price is $158.87.
What is EFX's 200-week moving average price?
Equifax Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $221.66 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when EFX drops below its 200-week moving average?
EFX has crossed below its 200-week moving average 28 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +27.9%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 12 weeks on average.
Is EFX a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about EFX as of 2026-09-18: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 48. Free cash flow yield is 5.1%. Return on equity is 14.3%. Price-to-book is 4.3x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does EFX compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.8 years, $100 invested in EFX would have grown to $4198, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. That's 11.7% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. EFX has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does EFX pay a dividend?
Yes. Equifax Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 141.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18