EFSC
Enterprise Financial Services Corp Financial Services - Banks - Regional Investor Relations →
Enterprise Financial Services Corp (EFSC) closed at $66.31 as of 2026-07-31, trading 37.6% above its 200-week moving average of $48.17. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 37.4% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 69, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.0x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.13 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1154 weeks of data, EFSC has crossed below its 200-week moving average 16 times. On average, these episodes lasted 19 weeks. The average one-year return after crossing below was -4.8%, suggesting these dips have not historically been reliable buying opportunities for this stock.
With a market cap of $2.4 billion, EFSC is a mid-cap stock. Return on equity stands at 9.6%. The stock trades at 1.2x book value.
Over the past 22.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in EFSC would have grown to $618, compared to $978 for the S&P 500. EFSC has returned 8.6% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -5.4% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: EFSC vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After EFSC Crosses Below the Line?
Across 16 historical episodes, buying EFSC when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of -7.2% after 12 months (median -7.0%), compared to +0.5% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 38% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +4.2% vs +18.4% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment EFSC crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices EFSC would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where EFSC's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $52.52 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $55.34 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $58.49 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $62.02 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $66.01 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from EFSC's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
EFSC has crossed below its 200-week MA 16 times with an average 1-year return of +-4.8% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 2007 | Aug 2007 | 2 | 6.4% | -2.2% | +333.0% |
| Sep 2007 | Sep 2007 | 1 | 1.0% | -10.2% | +324.9% |
| Oct 2007 | Nov 2007 | 2 | 3.2% | -13.6% | +319.2% |
| Jan 2008 | Mar 2008 | 10 | 20.0% | -40.1% | +319.6% |
| Apr 2008 | Apr 2008 | 1 | 7.7% | -46.9% | +328.1% |
| Apr 2008 | Mar 2011 | 152 | 64.2% | -58.0% | +317.6% |
| Apr 2011 | Apr 2011 | 1 | 2.3% | -13.2% | +532.9% |
| May 2011 | Jun 2011 | 8 | 6.2% | -12.1% | +540.9% |
| Feb 2012 | Mar 2012 | 5 | 6.4% | +18.5% | +630.5% |
| Mar 2012 | Jul 2012 | 14 | 10.1% | +24.2% | +614.8% |
| Aug 2019 | Sep 2019 | 5 | 3.4% | -18.4% | +95.3% |
| Feb 2020 | Feb 2021 | 51 | 41.8% | +15.1% | +99.2% |
| May 2023 | May 2023 | 3 | 7.5% | +2.6% | +81.5% |
| Jun 2023 | Jul 2023 | 3 | 5.2% | +1.2% | +82.3% |
| Jul 2023 | Nov 2023 | 17 | 15.0% | +25.6% | +73.1% |
| Jan 2024 | Jul 2024 | 23 | 9.2% | +51.5% | +73.6% |
| Average | 19 | — | +-4.8% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is EFSC below its 200-week moving average?
No. Enterprise Financial Services Corp (EFSC) is currently 37.6% above its 200-week moving average of $48.17. It would need to fall to $48.17 to cross below the line.
What is EFSC's 200-week moving average price?
Enterprise Financial Services Corp's 200-week moving average is $48.17 as of 2026-07-31. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when EFSC drops below its 200-week moving average?
EFSC has crossed below its 200-week moving average 16 times in our data. The average one-year return after these crossings was -4.8%, meaning the dips were not reliable buying signals for this particular stock. These episodes lasted 19 weeks on average.
Is EFSC a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about EFSC as of 2026-07-31: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 69. Return on equity is 9.6%. Price-to-book is 1.2x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does EFSC compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 22.2 years, $100 invested in EFSC would have grown to $618, compared to $978 for the S&P 500. That's 8.6% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. EFSC has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does EFSC pay a dividend?
Yes. Enterprise Financial Services Corp currently pays a dividend yield of 202.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-31