ECPG
Encore Capital Group, Inc. Financial Services - Credit Services Investor Relations →
Encore Capital Group, Inc. (ECPG) closed at $83.05 as of 2026-06-19, trading 68.2% above its 200-week moving average of $49.38. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 65.2% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 82, ECPG is in overbought territory.
Trading volume is running at 1.1x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.09 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1358 weeks of data, ECPG has crossed below its 200-week moving average 18 times. On average, these episodes lasted 30 weeks. Historically, investors who bought ECPG at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +12.5%.
With a market cap of $1781 million, ECPG is a small-cap stock. Free cash flow yield is currently negative, meaning the company is burning cash. Return on equity stands at 32.0%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 1.7x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 7.0% over the past three years.
Over the past 26.1 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in ECPG would have grown to $10222, compared to $818 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 19.4% vs 8.4% for the index — confirming ECPG as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -1.8% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: ECPG vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After ECPG Crosses Below the Line?
Across 18 historical episodes, buying ECPG when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +16.7% after 12 months (median +6.0%), compared to +20.0% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 56% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +47.2% vs +30.8% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment ECPG crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices ECPG would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where ECPG's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-08-05.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $68.41 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $73.48 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $79.37 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $86.27 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $94.50 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from ECPG's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
ECPG has crossed below its 200-week MA 18 times with an average 1-year return of +12.5% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 2000 | Mar 2003 | 142 | 90.4% | -33.7% | +9391.4% |
| May 2006 | Sep 2008 | 122 | 54.4% | +20.9% | +717.4% |
| Sep 2008 | May 2009 | 31 | 75.4% | +5.3% | +607.4% |
| Sep 2015 | Oct 2015 | 1 | 4.0% | -36.6% | +134.1% |
| Nov 2015 | May 2017 | 79 | 55.1% | -19.8% | +161.1% |
| Jul 2018 | Aug 2018 | 1 | 0.4% | -1.8% | +133.6% |
| Oct 2018 | May 2019 | 31 | 36.8% | -0.8% | +151.4% |
| Sep 2019 | Oct 2019 | 3 | 2.6% | +12.9% | +153.4% |
| Jan 2020 | Feb 2020 | 1 | 0.2% | -12.5% | +144.6% |
| Mar 2020 | Jun 2020 | 11 | 50.5% | +99.3% | +314.0% |
| Jun 2020 | Jul 2020 | 5 | 7.9% | +48.8% | +155.9% |
| Oct 2020 | Nov 2020 | 5 | 15.4% | +69.2% | +160.1% |
| Jan 2021 | Mar 2021 | 8 | 18.0% | +78.2% | +146.9% |
| May 2023 | May 2023 | 1 | 2.4% | +6.6% | +87.9% |
| Aug 2023 | Sep 2023 | 5 | 1.9% | +9.7% | +80.1% |
| Oct 2023 | Dec 2023 | 8 | 15.6% | +10.5% | +94.6% |
| Mar 2024 | Aug 2024 | 22 | 17.4% | -25.7% | +80.1% |
| Sep 2024 | Nov 2025 | 62 | 41.9% | -5.7% | +76.2% |
| Average | 30 | — | +12.5% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ECPG below its 200-week moving average?
No. Encore Capital Group, Inc. (ECPG) is currently 68.2% above its 200-week moving average of $49.38. It would need to fall to $49.38 to cross below the line.
What is ECPG's 200-week moving average price?
Encore Capital Group, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $49.38 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when ECPG drops below its 200-week moving average?
ECPG has crossed below its 200-week moving average 18 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +12.5%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 30 weeks on average.
Is ECPG a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about ECPG as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 82 (overbought). Free cash flow is currently negative. Return on equity is 32.0%. Price-to-book is 1.7x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does ECPG compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 26.1 years, $100 invested in ECPG would have grown to $10222, compared to $818 for the S&P 500. That's 19.4% annualized vs 8.4% for the index. ECPG has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19