ECL
Ecolab Inc. Materials - Specialty Chemicals Investor Relations →
Ecolab Inc. (ECL) closed at $269.12 as of 2026-06-19, trading 23.5% above its 200-week moving average of $217.88. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 21.8% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 48, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.3x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.04 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2734 weeks of data, ECL has crossed below its 200-week moving average 22 times. On average, these episodes lasted 28 weeks. Historically, investors who bought ECL at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +11.8%.
With a market cap of $75.7 billion, ECL is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 2.1%. Return on equity stands at 22.4%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 7.6x book value.
ECL is a Dividend Aristocrat, having increased its dividend for 25 or more consecutive years. The current yield is 107.00%.
Over the past 33.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in ECL would have grown to $8886, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 14.3% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming ECL as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
In the past 12 months, corporate insiders have made 6 open-market purchases totaling $3,079,817. Multiple insiders purchased within a 30-day window — a cluster buy pattern that historically signals management confidence in the company's prospects.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 21% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: ECL vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After ECL Crosses Below the Line?
Across 7 historical episodes, buying ECL when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +21.7% after 12 months (median +20.0%), compared to +8.0% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 86% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +36.7% vs +27.1% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment ECL crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices ECL would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where ECL's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-07-28.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $242.83 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $257.09 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $273.12 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $291.28 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $312.02 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from ECL's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
ECL has crossed below its 200-week MA 22 times with an average 1-year return of +11.8% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 1974 | Aug 1978 | 239 | 52.0% | -29.1% | +20519.2% |
| Oct 1978 | Sep 1979 | 49 | 19.5% | -7.6% | +33225.1% |
| Oct 1979 | Dec 1979 | 9 | 10.5% | +1.1% | +32868.7% |
| Dec 1979 | Jan 1980 | 1 | 0.7% | -8.7% | +33406.2% |
| Feb 1980 | Aug 1980 | 28 | 27.4% | -18.6% | +33589.3% |
| Oct 1980 | Apr 1981 | 25 | 17.7% | -12.7% | +37039.5% |
| May 1981 | Jun 1981 | 3 | 3.6% | -6.4% | +35536.7% |
| Jun 1981 | Jul 1982 | 56 | 25.6% | -12.6% | +35129.4% |
| Aug 1982 | Aug 1982 | 2 | 3.3% | +28.3% | +37039.5% |
| Mar 1984 | May 1984 | 11 | 6.4% | +26.2% | +33589.3% |
| Jun 1984 | Jul 1984 | 5 | 4.1% | +47.0% | +33961.6% |
| Nov 1987 | Dec 1987 | 2 | 3.9% | +38.4% | +19754.8% |
| Jan 1990 | Jan 1990 | 1 | 0.1% | -5.8% | +14104.0% |
| Feb 1990 | Jun 1990 | 16 | 12.1% | +11.7% | +14175.0% |
| Jul 1990 | Feb 1991 | 28 | 30.1% | +20.2% | +14206.8% |
| Sep 2001 | Sep 2001 | 1 | 11.8% | +38.3% | +2217.6% |
| Oct 2001 | Oct 2001 | 1 | 2.0% | +34.8% | +1972.9% |
| Jul 2002 | Jul 2002 | 1 | 1.3% | +32.0% | +1803.7% |
| Oct 2008 | Jul 2009 | 42 | 25.2% | +18.1% | +737.8% |
| Mar 2020 | Apr 2020 | 3 | 3.7% | +47.7% | +103.3% |
| Jan 2022 | Jul 2023 | 76 | 29.1% | -17.0% | +52.2% |
| Jul 2023 | Nov 2023 | 16 | 14.6% | +35.0% | +51.2% |
| Average | 28 | — | +11.8% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ECL below its 200-week moving average?
No. Ecolab Inc. (ECL) is currently 23.5% above its 200-week moving average of $217.88. It would need to fall to $217.88 to cross below the line.
What is ECL's 200-week moving average price?
Ecolab Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $217.88 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when ECL drops below its 200-week moving average?
ECL has crossed below its 200-week moving average 22 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +11.8%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 28 weeks on average.
Is ECL a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about ECL as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 48. Free cash flow yield is 2.1%. Return on equity is 22.4%. Price-to-book is 7.6x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does ECL compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.5 years, $100 invested in ECL would have grown to $8886, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That's 14.3% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. ECL has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does ECL pay a dividend?
Yes. Ecolab Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 107.00%. It is also a Dividend Aristocrat, meaning it has raised its dividend for 25 or more consecutive years.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19