EBAY
eBay Inc. Consumer Discretionary - E-Commerce Investor Relations →
eBay Inc. (EBAY) closed at $111.84 as of 2026-09-18, trading 72.1% above its 200-week moving average of $65.00. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 66.7% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 54, indicating neutral momentum.
A big jump in activity this week — 2.7x the usual volume, and the price went up. Significantly more people than usual decided to buy. This kind of surge, especially on a stock already below its 200-week average, can be an early sign that sentiment is shifting.
Over the past 1412 weeks of data, EBAY has crossed below its 200-week moving average 17 times. On average, these episodes lasted 25 weeks. Historically, investors who bought EBAY at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +23.0%.
With a market cap of $49.8 billion, EBAY is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 3.2%. Return on equity stands at 46.6%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 10.7x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 16.7% over the past three years.
Over the past 27.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in EBAY would have grown to $1806, compared to $928 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 11.2% vs 8.5% for the index — confirming EBAY as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -7.4% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: EBAY vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After EBAY Crosses Below the Line?
Across 17 historical episodes, buying EBAY when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +26.2% after 12 months (median +26.0%), compared to +5.6% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 71% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +58.6% vs +17.8% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment EBAY crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices EBAY would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where EBAY's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-11-04.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $99.85 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $108.32 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $118.38 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $130.48 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $145.35 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | $1.51 | $1.60 | +6.2% |
| 2026-04-29 | $1.58 | $1.66 | +5.0% |
| 2026-02-18 | $1.35 | $1.41 | +4.4% |
| 2025-10-29 | $1.33 | $1.36 | +1.9% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from EBAY's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
EBAY has crossed below its 200-week MA 17 times with an average 1-year return of +23.0% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 2000 | May 2000 | 3 | 6.8% | -12.2% | +1887.1% |
| Jun 2000 | Aug 2000 | 11 | 25.7% | +6.5% | +1871.9% |
| Oct 2000 | May 2001 | 32 | 49.7% | -10.2% | +1927.9% |
| Aug 2001 | Nov 2001 | 11 | 25.5% | +0.5% | +2043.6% |
| Jan 2002 | Jun 2002 | 19 | 15.4% | +29.5% | +1976.3% |
| Jul 2002 | Oct 2002 | 14 | 14.1% | +93.4% | +2017.6% |
| May 2006 | Sep 2007 | 71 | 29.9% | +5.4% | +830.3% |
| Oct 2007 | Mar 2010 | 126 | 66.5% | -58.2% | +720.6% |
| Apr 2010 | Oct 2010 | 25 | 25.0% | +30.1% | +1127.4% |
| Feb 2016 | Feb 2016 | 1 | 1.6% | +49.5% | +463.9% |
| Jun 2016 | Jun 2016 | 1 | 1.4% | +53.8% | +448.3% |
| Oct 2018 | Jan 2019 | 14 | 15.1% | +36.5% | +341.1% |
| Jan 2020 | Feb 2020 | 1 | 1.5% | +70.8% | +272.3% |
| Mar 2020 | Apr 2020 | 5 | 19.6% | +66.3% | +265.9% |
| May 2022 | Jan 2023 | 37 | 23.5% | -1.8% | +160.0% |
| Feb 2023 | Mar 2024 | 56 | 23.6% | -9.7% | +148.7% |
| Apr 2024 | May 2024 | 1 | 1.3% | +40.7% | +134.0% |
| Average | 25 | — | +23.0% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is EBAY below its 200-week moving average?
No. eBay Inc. (EBAY) is currently 72.1% above its 200-week moving average of $65.00. It would need to fall to $65.00 to cross below the line.
What is EBAY's 200-week moving average price?
eBay Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $65.00 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when EBAY drops below its 200-week moving average?
EBAY has crossed below its 200-week moving average 17 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +23.0%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 25 weeks on average.
Is EBAY a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about EBAY as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 54. Free cash flow yield is 3.2%. Return on equity is 46.6%. Price-to-book is 10.7x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does EBAY compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 27.2 years, $100 invested in EBAY would have grown to $1806, compared to $928 for the S&P 500. That's 11.2% annualized vs 8.5% for the index. EBAY has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does EBAY pay a dividend?
Yes. eBay Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 111.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18