EAT
Brinker International, Inc. Consumer Cyclical - Restaurants Investor Relations →
Brinker International, Inc. (EAT) closed at $196.71 as of 2026-09-18, trading 96.7% above its 200-week moving average of $100.00. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 114.2% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 63, indicating neutral momentum.
A big spike in selling this week — 3.6x the usual volume, and the price dropped. Sometimes this kind of heavy selling marks the end of a decline. The idea is that the last reluctant holders have finally sold, leaving fewer sellers left to push the price lower.
Over the past 2180 weeks of data, EAT has crossed below its 200-week moving average 29 times. On average, these episodes lasted 21 weeks. Historically, investors who bought EAT at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +31.1%.
With a market cap of $8.2 billion, EAT is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 4.5%. Return on equity stands at 119.6%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 18.7x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 5.4% over the past three years.
Over the past 33.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in EAT would have grown to $3188, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 10.8% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming EAT as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 98.4% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: EAT vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After EAT Crosses Below the Line?
Across 20 historical episodes, buying EAT when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +16.9% after 12 months (median -2.0%), compared to +14.0% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 45% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +24.5% vs +30.9% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment EAT crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices EAT would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where EAT's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-10-28.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $159.54 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $176.21 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $196.76 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $222.73 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $256.61 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-12 | $3.09 | $3.07 | -0.5% |
| 2026-04-29 | $2.86 | $2.90 | +1.3% |
| 2026-01-28 | $2.63 | $2.87 | +9.2% |
| 2025-10-29 | $1.77 | $1.93 | +8.8% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from EAT's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
EAT has crossed below its 200-week MA 29 times with an average 1-year return of +31.1% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1985 | Oct 1985 | 1 | 1.4% | -0.6% | +23606.0% |
| Dec 1985 | Apr 1986 | 16 | 16.2% | +15.6% | +23606.0% |
| May 1986 | May 1986 | 1 | 0.2% | +53.0% | +23464.9% |
| Sep 1986 | Oct 1986 | 6 | 10.4% | +52.2% | +25116.0% |
| Oct 1987 | Apr 1988 | 27 | 22.3% | +31.6% | +23051.5% |
| May 1988 | Jun 1988 | 3 | 5.2% | +79.0% | +21184.4% |
| Jun 1988 | Jun 1988 | 1 | 0.7% | +74.5% | +20098.5% |
| Jul 1988 | Jul 1988 | 1 | 0.4% | +96.4% | +19996.0% |
| Aug 1988 | Sep 1988 | 2 | 5.9% | +106.5% | +20627.3% |
| Nov 1994 | Feb 1995 | 11 | 14.7% | -12.5% | +3520.4% |
| Feb 1995 | Feb 1998 | 154 | 45.4% | -30.2% | +3178.9% |
| Oct 1998 | Oct 1998 | 1 | 3.5% | +64.8% | +3972.9% |
| Aug 2004 | Sep 2004 | 5 | 4.1% | +34.2% | +1372.7% |
| Oct 2004 | Oct 2004 | 1 | 0.7% | +21.5% | +1313.3% |
| Jul 2006 | Aug 2006 | 4 | 8.2% | +25.7% | +1157.1% |
| Oct 2007 | Mar 2010 | 123 | 83.4% | -61.4% | +1049.4% |
| Mar 2010 | Apr 2010 | 2 | 1.7% | +28.9% | +1235.0% |
| Apr 2010 | Sep 2010 | 22 | 25.8% | +33.8% | +1312.1% |
| May 2016 | May 2016 | 1 | 0.9% | -4.9% | +410.6% |
| Jan 2017 | Apr 2018 | 66 | 34.2% | -14.5% | +376.8% |
| May 2018 | Jun 2018 | 3 | 4.5% | -2.4% | +386.8% |
| Aug 2018 | Aug 2018 | 1 | 0.2% | -8.8% | +377.8% |
| Oct 2018 | Oct 2018 | 1 | 0.5% | +6.9% | +381.3% |
| Jan 2019 | Feb 2019 | 1 | 3.1% | +7.1% | +398.8% |
| May 2019 | Sep 2019 | 17 | 9.8% | -50.0% | +398.8% |
| Oct 2019 | Oct 2019 | 1 | 0.6% | +19.5% | +398.8% |
| Feb 2020 | Aug 2020 | 25 | 76.4% | +101.9% | +478.9% |
| Oct 2021 | Dec 2023 | 111 | 47.3% | -19.4% | +368.8% |
| Jan 2024 | Jan 2024 | 4 | 4.6% | +254.6% | +394.2% |
| Average | 21 | — | +31.1% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is EAT below its 200-week moving average?
No. Brinker International, Inc. (EAT) is currently 96.7% above its 200-week moving average of $100.00. It would need to fall to $100.00 to cross below the line.
What is EAT's 200-week moving average price?
Brinker International, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $100.00 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when EAT drops below its 200-week moving average?
EAT has crossed below its 200-week moving average 29 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +31.1%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 21 weeks on average.
Is EAT a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about EAT as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 63. Free cash flow yield is 4.5%. Return on equity is 119.6%. Price-to-book is 18.7x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does EAT compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.8 years, $100 invested in EAT would have grown to $3188, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. That's 10.8% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. EAT has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18