DXCM
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DexCom Inc. (DXCM) closed at $69.97 as of 2026-02-02, trading 26.5% below its 200-week moving average of $95.22. This places DXCM in the extreme value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -23.5% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 71, DXCM is in overbought territory.
Over the past 1038 weeks of data, DXCM has crossed below its 200-week moving average 8 times. On average, these episodes lasted 40 weeks. Historically, investors who bought DXCM at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +32.2%.
With a market cap of $27.4 billion, DXCM is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 2.9%. Return on equity stands at 30.6%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 10.0x book value.
Over the past 20 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in DXCM would have grown to $1381, compared to $771 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 14.0% vs 10.7% for the index — confirming DXCM as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 127.9% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation. A business generating more cash every year while trading below its 200-week moving average is exactly the kind of disconnect value investors look for.
Growth of $100: DXCM vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After DXCM Crosses Below the Line?
Across 8 historical episodes, buying DXCM when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +31.9% after 12 months (median +16.0%), compared to +19.6% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 62% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +62.1% vs +39.7% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment DXCM crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
DXCM has crossed below its 200-week MA 8 times with an average 1-year return of +32.2% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 2006 | Jan 2010 | 186 | 85.4% | -49.6% | +1970.1% |
| Oct 2011 | Jan 2012 | 10 | 23.0% | +69.2% | +3568.2% |
| Sep 2017 | Mar 2018 | 25 | 31.9% | +192.3% | +472.0% |
| May 2022 | Jul 2022 | 8 | 12.2% | +59.2% | -3.2% |
| Sep 2022 | Oct 2022 | 2 | 1.9% | +8.5% | -13.3% |
| Aug 2023 | Aug 2023 | 1 | 0.4% | -26.5% | -30.6% |
| Sep 2023 | Nov 2023 | 9 | 25.7% | -27.9% | -27.4% |
| Jul 2024 | Ongoing | 81+ | 43.9% | Ongoing | +9.3% |
| Average | 40 | — | +32.2% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02