DX
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Dynex Capital, Inc. (DX) closed at $12.71 as of 2026-07-31, trading 31.2% above its 200-week moving average of $9.69. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 30.5% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 41, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.2x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.99 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1959 weeks of data, DX has crossed below its 200-week moving average 18 times. On average, these episodes lasted 27 weeks. Historically, investors who bought DX at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +19.3%.
With a market cap of $3.2 billion, DX is a mid-cap stock. Return on equity stands at 18.2%, a solid level. The stock trades at 1.0x book value.
Share count has increased 225.9% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 33.6 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in DX would have grown to $126, compared to $3098 for the S&P 500. DX has returned 0.7% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -1.5% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: DX vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After DX Crosses Below the Line?
Across 17 historical episodes, buying DX when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +29.9% after 12 months (median +23.0%), compared to +27.4% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 94% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +57.1% vs +55.8% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment DX crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices DX would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where DX's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $11.71 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $12.13 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $12.58 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $13.06 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $13.58 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from DX's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
DX has crossed below its 200-week MA 18 times with an average 1-year return of +19.3% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 1989 | Nov 1990 | 95 | 65.0% | -46.1% | +749.8% |
| Nov 1994 | May 1995 | 25 | 37.2% | +37.9% | +76.6% |
| Jul 1995 | Jul 1995 | 1 | 3.2% | +55.5% | +50.3% |
| Sep 1998 | Dec 2002 | 224 | 98.0% | -60.9% | +9.1% |
| Oct 2008 | Jan 2009 | 14 | 19.3% | +41.0% | +418.9% |
| Feb 2009 | Feb 2009 | 1 | 0.0% | +42.8% | +380.4% |
| Feb 2009 | Mar 2009 | 2 | 10.0% | +56.7% | +433.7% |
| Aug 2015 | Mar 2016 | 34 | 15.9% | +31.3% | +149.4% |
| Apr 2016 | May 2016 | 1 | 1.2% | +19.5% | +122.7% |
| May 2016 | May 2016 | 1 | 1.3% | +16.2% | +122.7% |
| Aug 2019 | Oct 2019 | 12 | 9.5% | +10.4% | +90.6% |
| Mar 2020 | Jul 2020 | 18 | 39.0% | +70.9% | +130.4% |
| Sep 2022 | Jan 2023 | 16 | 17.5% | +2.9% | +59.4% |
| Feb 2023 | Jul 2023 | 21 | 16.5% | +7.9% | +57.9% |
| Aug 2023 | Aug 2023 | 2 | 4.0% | +14.0% | +59.2% |
| Sep 2023 | Dec 2023 | 12 | 22.7% | +17.4% | +54.9% |
| Apr 2024 | Apr 2024 | 3 | 2.8% | +10.3% | +52.1% |
| Jun 2024 | Jun 2024 | 2 | 1.6% | +19.6% | +50.1% |
| Average | 27 | — | +19.3% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is DX below its 200-week moving average?
No. Dynex Capital, Inc. (DX) is currently 31.2% above its 200-week moving average of $9.69. It would need to fall to $9.69 to cross below the line.
What is DX's 200-week moving average price?
Dynex Capital, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $9.69 as of 2026-07-31. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when DX drops below its 200-week moving average?
DX has crossed below its 200-week moving average 18 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +19.3%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 27 weeks on average.
Is DX a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about DX as of 2026-07-31: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 41. Return on equity is 18.2%. Price-to-book is 1.0x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does DX compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.6 years, $100 invested in DX would have grown to $126, compared to $3098 for the S&P 500. That's 0.7% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. DX has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does DX pay a dividend?
Yes. Dynex Capital, Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 1591.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-31