DX
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Dynex Capital, Inc. (DX) closed at $14.07 as of 2026-02-02, trading 41.4% above its 200-week moving average of $9.95. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 39.8% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 68, indicating neutral momentum.
Over the past 1934 weeks of data, DX has crossed below its 200-week moving average 17 times. On average, these episodes lasted 28 weeks. Historically, investors who bought DX at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +18.1%.
With a market cap of $2.8 billion, DX is a mid-cap stock. Return on equity stands at 17.5%, a solid level. The stock trades at 1.0x book value.
Share count has increased 130.4% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 33.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in DX would have grown to $130, compared to $2849 for the S&P 500. DX has returned 0.8% annualized vs 10.6% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -53.9% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Growth of $100: DX vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After DX Crosses Below the Line?
Across 16 historical episodes, buying DX when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +28.3% after 12 months (median +23.0%), compared to +25.8% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 94% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +54.8% vs +55.4% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment DX crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
DX has crossed below its 200-week MA 17 times with an average 1-year return of +18.1% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 1989 | Nov 1990 | 95 | 64.9% | -46.1% | +770.2% |
| Nov 1994 | May 1995 | 25 | 38.0% | +40.0% | +83.5% |
| Jul 1995 | Jul 1995 | 1 | 3.0% | +55.5% | +53.9% |
| Sep 1998 | Dec 2002 | 224 | 98.0% | -60.9% | +11.7% |
| Oct 2008 | Jan 2009 | 14 | 19.3% | +41.0% | +431.4% |
| Feb 2009 | Mar 2009 | 2 | 10.0% | +56.7% | +446.5% |
| Aug 2015 | Apr 2016 | 35 | 15.7% | +31.3% | +155.4% |
| Apr 2016 | May 2016 | 1 | 1.0% | +19.5% | +128.0% |
| May 2016 | May 2016 | 1 | 1.0% | +16.2% | +128.0% |
| Aug 2019 | Oct 2019 | 12 | 9.3% | +10.4% | +95.1% |
| Mar 2020 | Jul 2020 | 18 | 38.9% | +70.9% | +135.9% |
| Sep 2022 | Jan 2023 | 16 | 17.3% | +2.8% | +64.7% |
| Feb 2023 | Jul 2023 | 21 | 16.9% | +7.9% | +61.7% |
| Aug 2023 | Aug 2023 | 2 | 3.9% | +14.0% | +63.0% |
| Sep 2023 | Dec 2023 | 12 | 23.6% | +18.6% | +60.2% |
| Apr 2024 | Apr 2024 | 3 | 2.6% | +10.3% | +55.8% |
| Jun 2024 | Jun 2024 | 1 | 1.4% | +19.6% | +53.7% |
| Average | 28 | — | +18.1% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02