DVN
Devon Energy Corporation Energy - Oil & Gas Investor Relations →
Devon Energy Corporation (DVN) closed at $48.61 as of 2026-09-18, trading 18.3% above its 200-week moving average of $41.09. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 21.3% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 58, indicating neutral momentum.
A big spike in selling this week — 2.1x the usual volume, and the price dropped. Sometimes this kind of heavy selling marks the end of a decline. The idea is that the last reluctant holders have finally sold, leaving fewer sellers left to push the price lower.
Over the past 2099 weeks of data, DVN has crossed below its 200-week moving average 28 times. On average, these episodes lasted 30 weeks. Historically, investors who bought DVN at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +8.1%.
With a market cap of $53.5 billion, DVN is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 1.5%. Return on equity stands at 11.5%. The stock trades at 1.3x book value.
Over the past 33.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in DVN would have grown to $1040, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. DVN has returned 7.2% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -6.3% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: DVN vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After DVN Crosses Below the Line?
Across 27 historical episodes, buying DVN when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +8.0% after 12 months (median +8.0%), compared to +11.0% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 50% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +26.7% vs +21.8% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment DVN crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices DVN would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where DVN's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-11-04.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $31.09 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $34.92 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $39.83 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $46.35 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $55.42 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-04 | $1.41 | $1.57 | +11.3% |
| 2026-05-05 | $1.09 | $1.04 | -4.9% |
| 2026-02-17 | $0.83 | $0.82 | -0.8% |
| 2025-11-05 | $0.94 | $1.04 | +10.6% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from DVN's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
DVN has crossed below its 200-week MA 28 times with an average 1-year return of +8.1% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 1986 | Feb 1989 | 136 | 67.8% | -18.9% | +2489.4% |
| Jan 1992 | May 1992 | 18 | 13.2% | +68.1% | +1888.9% |
| Aug 1998 | Sep 1998 | 4 | 7.2% | +47.4% | +489.7% |
| Nov 1998 | Dec 1998 | 4 | 4.9% | +22.0% | +476.0% |
| Jan 1999 | Apr 1999 | 15 | 29.8% | +17.6% | +461.7% |
| Dec 1999 | Dec 1999 | 1 | 7.2% | +66.0% | +440.8% |
| Dec 1999 | Jan 2000 | 1 | 0.5% | +86.2% | +402.0% |
| Sep 2001 | Feb 2002 | 22 | 19.9% | +26.5% | +338.1% |
| Jul 2002 | Aug 2002 | 4 | 8.2% | +26.6% | +306.1% |
| Nov 2002 | Nov 2002 | 1 | 0.4% | +13.2% | +265.4% |
| Jan 2003 | Feb 2003 | 4 | 3.5% | +31.9% | +260.4% |
| Sep 2003 | Oct 2003 | 5 | 3.6% | +55.8% | +240.5% |
| Nov 2003 | Nov 2003 | 1 | 0.8% | +61.6% | +236.7% |
| Oct 2008 | Oct 2008 | 3 | 15.2% | +15.3% | +30.6% |
| Nov 2008 | Dec 2009 | 58 | 45.2% | -2.3% | +11.8% |
| Jan 2010 | Dec 2010 | 49 | 17.8% | +14.4% | +5.9% |
| Aug 2011 | Feb 2012 | 28 | 25.3% | -18.5% | +9.2% |
| Apr 2012 | Feb 2014 | 97 | 21.4% | -17.7% | +11.6% |
| Mar 2014 | Mar 2014 | 1 | 0.8% | -6.6% | +17.2% |
| Oct 2014 | Nov 2014 | 4 | 9.4% | -22.5% | +22.9% |
| Nov 2014 | Feb 2015 | 10 | 16.2% | -22.5% | +23.9% |
| Feb 2015 | Mar 2015 | 5 | 6.1% | -66.4% | +18.1% |
| Jun 2015 | Jun 2018 | 156 | 66.7% | -39.2% | +19.4% |
| Aug 2018 | Aug 2018 | 1 | 2.8% | -43.9% | +71.1% |
| Sep 2018 | May 2021 | 139 | 81.6% | -41.7% | +71.6% |
| Sep 2024 | Sep 2024 | 4 | 7.4% | -13.2% | +25.3% |
| Oct 2024 | Feb 2026 | 68 | 36.0% | -19.8% | +26.0% |
| Jun 2026 | Jul 2026 | 3 | 3.8% | N/A | +16.2% |
| Average | 30 | — | +8.1% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is DVN below its 200-week moving average?
No. Devon Energy Corporation (DVN) is currently 18.3% above its 200-week moving average of $41.09. It would need to fall to $41.09 to cross below the line.
What is DVN's 200-week moving average price?
Devon Energy Corporation's 200-week moving average is $41.09 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when DVN drops below its 200-week moving average?
DVN has crossed below its 200-week moving average 28 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +8.1%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 30 weeks on average.
Is DVN a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about DVN as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 58. Free cash flow yield is 1.5%. Return on equity is 11.5%. Price-to-book is 1.3x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does DVN compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.8 years, $100 invested in DVN would have grown to $1040, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. That's 7.2% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. DVN has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does DVN pay a dividend?
Yes. Devon Energy Corporation currently pays a dividend yield of 263.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18