DRI
Darden Restaurants, Inc. Consumer Cyclical - Restaurants Investor Relations →
Darden Restaurants, Inc. (DRI) closed at $203.58 as of 2026-07-31, trading 24.5% above its 200-week moving average of $163.47. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 20.4% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 53, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.4x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.14 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1581 weeks of data, DRI has crossed below its 200-week moving average 13 times. On average, these episodes lasted 14 weeks. Historically, investors who bought DRI at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +33.5%.
With a market cap of $23.3 billion, DRI is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 3.4%. Return on equity stands at 53.7%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 10.5x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 5.4% over the past three years.
Over the past 30.3 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in DRI would have grown to $4892, compared to $1925 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 13.7% vs 10.2% for the index — confirming DRI as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 4.6% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: DRI vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After DRI Crosses Below the Line?
Across 13 historical episodes, buying DRI when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +45.7% after 12 months (median +33.0%), compared to +11.1% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 92% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +77.5% vs +23.5% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment DRI crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices DRI would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where DRI's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-09-17.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $178.49 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $195.54 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $216.18 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $241.70 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $274.04 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from DRI's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
DRI has crossed below its 200-week MA 13 times with an average 1-year return of +33.5% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 1996 | Aug 1997 | 62 | 32.5% | -15.8% | +5716.0% |
| Feb 2000 | Mar 2000 | 4 | 7.4% | +55.5% | +4621.5% |
| Feb 2003 | Feb 2003 | 1 | 1.8% | +29.7% | +2379.1% |
| Aug 2004 | Aug 2004 | 3 | 5.4% | +65.0% | +1989.4% |
| Dec 2007 | Mar 2008 | 15 | 33.9% | +6.6% | +1384.8% |
| May 2008 | Aug 2008 | 11 | 15.4% | +6.9% | +1170.8% |
| Aug 2008 | Mar 2009 | 31 | 58.5% | +1.9% | +1093.9% |
| May 2009 | May 2009 | 2 | 3.3% | +31.1% | +1051.6% |
| Jun 2009 | Aug 2009 | 12 | 7.1% | +31.7% | +1061.8% |
| Sep 2009 | Dec 2009 | 11 | 10.6% | +33.3% | +1073.6% |
| Jul 2014 | Jul 2014 | 3 | 2.1% | +68.4% | +631.1% |
| Mar 2020 | Sep 2020 | 29 | 57.0% | +60.5% | +177.6% |
| Oct 2020 | Nov 2020 | 1 | 1.7% | +60.5% | +165.4% |
| Average | 14 | — | +33.5% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is DRI below its 200-week moving average?
No. Darden Restaurants, Inc. (DRI) is currently 24.5% above its 200-week moving average of $163.47. It would need to fall to $163.47 to cross below the line.
What is DRI's 200-week moving average price?
Darden Restaurants, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $163.47 as of 2026-07-31. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when DRI drops below its 200-week moving average?
DRI has crossed below its 200-week moving average 13 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +33.5%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 14 weeks on average.
Is DRI a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about DRI as of 2026-07-31: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 53. Free cash flow yield is 3.4%. Return on equity is 53.7%. Price-to-book is 10.5x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does DRI compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 30.3 years, $100 invested in DRI would have grown to $4892, compared to $1925 for the S&P 500. That's 13.7% annualized vs 10.2% for the index. DRI has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does DRI pay a dividend?
Yes. Darden Restaurants, Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 296.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-31