DOX
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Amdocs Limited (DOX) closed at $59.30 as of 2026-09-18, trading 24.8% below its 200-week moving average of $78.86. This places DOX in the extreme value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -22.2% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 58, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 0.9x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.18 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1426 weeks of data, DOX has crossed below its 200-week moving average 18 times. On average, these episodes lasted 23 weeks. Historically, investors who bought DOX at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +2.7%.
With a market cap of $6.2 billion, DOX is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 11.1%, which is notably high. Return on equity stands at 13.3%. The stock trades at 1.9x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 10.3% over the past three years.
Over the past 27.4 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in DOX would have grown to $346, compared to $944 for the S&P 500. DOX has returned 4.6% annualized vs 8.5% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 6.8% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation. A business generating more cash every year while trading below its 200-week moving average is exactly the kind of disconnect value investors look for.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: DOX vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After DOX Crosses Below the Line?
Across 18 historical episodes, buying DOX when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of -0.3% after 12 months (median +20.0%), compared to +12.2% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 69% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +15.8% vs +23.8% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment DOX crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices DOX would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where DOX's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-11-10.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $41.35 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $45.88 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $51.52 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $58.74 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $68.32 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-04 | $1.84 | $1.84 | -0.1% |
| 2026-05-12 | $1.76 | $1.78 | +0.9% |
| 2026-02-02 | $1.76 | $1.81 | +3.0% |
| 2025-11-10 | $1.82 | $1.83 | +0.4% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from DOX's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
DOX has crossed below its 200-week MA 18 times with an average 1-year return of +2.7% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 2001 | Jul 2001 | 2 | 8.9% | -79.8% | +80.3% |
| Aug 2001 | Nov 2004 | 173 | 84.5% | -80.6% | +82.3% |
| Dec 2004 | Dec 2004 | 1 | 2.7% | +12.4% | +207.7% |
| Feb 2008 | May 2008 | 16 | 13.3% | -40.6% | +143.2% |
| Jun 2008 | Mar 2010 | 93 | 48.8% | -31.5% | +139.7% |
| May 2010 | Oct 2010 | 23 | 10.6% | -0.3% | +156.5% |
| Nov 2010 | Jan 2011 | 10 | 8.5% | +12.1% | +183.5% |
| Aug 2011 | Sep 2011 | 4 | 4.4% | +24.3% | +194.4% |
| Dec 2018 | Jan 2019 | 3 | 2.6% | +27.8% | +21.2% |
| Jan 2019 | May 2019 | 16 | 9.6% | +36.2% | +26.0% |
| Mar 2020 | Apr 2020 | 5 | 23.9% | +39.5% | +17.2% |
| May 2020 | May 2020 | 1 | 1.4% | +31.8% | +13.0% |
| Jun 2020 | Jul 2020 | 6 | 3.3% | +32.0% | +13.3% |
| Aug 2020 | Nov 2020 | 12 | 7.6% | +33.3% | +13.7% |
| Jun 2024 | Jul 2024 | 5 | 5.0% | +23.5% | -17.5% |
| Sep 2025 | Oct 2025 | 3 | 2.4% | N/A | -24.9% |
| Nov 2025 | Jan 2026 | 8 | 8.4% | N/A | -21.7% |
| Jan 2026 | Ongoing | 35+ | 36.4% | Ongoing | -26.8% |
| Average | 23 | — | +2.7% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is DOX below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-09-18, Amdocs Limited (DOX) is trading 24.8% below its 200-week moving average of $78.86. The current price is $59.30.
What is DOX's 200-week moving average price?
Amdocs Limited's 200-week moving average is $78.86 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when DOX drops below its 200-week moving average?
DOX has crossed below its 200-week moving average 18 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +2.7%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 23 weeks on average.
Is DOX a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about DOX as of 2026-09-18: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 58. Free cash flow yield is 11.1%. Return on equity is 13.3%. Price-to-book is 1.9x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does DOX compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 27.4 years, $100 invested in DOX would have grown to $346, compared to $944 for the S&P 500. That's 4.6% annualized vs 8.5% for the index. DOX has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does DOX pay a dividend?
Yes. Amdocs Limited currently pays a dividend yield of 384.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18