DOW
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Dow Inc. (DOW) closed at $31.73 as of 2026-06-19, trading 18.1% below its 200-week moving average of $38.77. This places DOW in the extreme value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -12.8% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 42, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.1x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.93 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 330 weeks of data, DOW has crossed below its 200-week moving average 6 times. On average, these episodes lasted 21 weeks. The average one-year return after crossing below was -1.2%, suggesting these dips have not historically been reliable buying opportunities for this stock.
With a market cap of $22.9 billion, DOW is a large-cap stock. Free cash flow yield is currently negative, meaning the company is burning cash. Return on equity stands at -15.3%. The stock trades at 1.5x book value.
Over the past 6.4 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in DOW would have grown to $112, compared to $276 for the S&P 500. DOW has returned 1.8% annualized vs 17.2% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -100% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: DOW vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After DOW Crosses Below the Line?
Across 6 historical episodes, buying DOW when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of -4.8% after 12 months (median +4.0%), compared to +24.8% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 60% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +13.0% vs +55.3% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment DOW crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. DOW currently has negative free cash flow, so price-based dislocation levels are not available. The score still tracks yield deviation from baseline.
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from DOW's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
DOW has crossed below its 200-week MA 6 times with an average 1-year return of +-1.2% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2020 | Aug 2020 | 26 | 46.1% | +56.1% | +12.1% |
| Aug 2022 | Oct 2022 | 9 | 10.3% | +18.3% | -19.2% |
| Oct 2023 | Oct 2023 | 2 | 1.9% | +14.1% | -23.9% |
| Sep 2024 | Sep 2024 | 2 | 1.5% | -48.0% | -30.1% |
| Oct 2024 | Mar 2026 | 74 | 52.8% | -46.3% | -28.7% |
| Apr 2026 | Ongoing | 11+ | 18.2% | Ongoing | -17.8% |
| Average | 21 | — | +-1.2% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is DOW below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-06-19, Dow Inc. (DOW) is trading 18.1% below its 200-week moving average of $38.77. The current price is $31.73.
What is DOW's 200-week moving average price?
Dow Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $38.77 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when DOW drops below its 200-week moving average?
DOW has crossed below its 200-week moving average 6 times in our data. The average one-year return after these crossings was -1.2%, meaning the dips were not reliable buying signals for this particular stock. These episodes lasted 21 weeks on average.
Is DOW a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about DOW as of 2026-06-19: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 42. Free cash flow is currently negative. Return on equity is -15.3%. Price-to-book is 1.5x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does DOW compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 6.4 years, $100 invested in DOW would have grown to $112, compared to $276 for the S&P 500. That's 1.8% annualized vs 17.2% for the index. DOW has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does DOW pay a dividend?
Yes. Dow Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 425.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19