DOW
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Dow Inc. (DOW) closed at $28.73 as of 2026-09-18, trading 24.0% below its 200-week moving average of $37.79. This places DOW in the extreme value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -23.3% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 35, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.3x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.91 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 343 weeks of data, DOW has crossed below its 200-week moving average 7 times. On average, these episodes lasted 19 weeks. Historically, investors who bought DOW at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +1.7%.
With a market cap of $20.8 billion, DOW is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 1.1%. Return on equity stands at -5.5%. The stock trades at 1.3x book value.
Over the past 6.7 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in DOW would have grown to $101, compared to $283 for the S&P 500. DOW has returned 0.1% annualized vs 16.9% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -100% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: DOW vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After DOW Crosses Below the Line?
Across 7 historical episodes, buying DOW when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of -1.8% after 12 months (median +8.0%), compared to +23.8% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 67% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +4.6% vs +51.6% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment DOW crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices DOW would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where DOW's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-10-22.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $26.69 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $27.66 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $28.70 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $29.82 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $31.03 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-23 | $1.28 | $1.44 | +12.6% |
| 2026-04-23 | $-0.29 | $-0.14 | +51.7% |
| 2026-01-29 | $-0.51 | $-0.34 | +33.7% |
| 2025-10-23 | $-0.30 | $-0.19 | +36.8% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from DOW's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
DOW has crossed below its 200-week MA 7 times with an average 1-year return of +1.7% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2020 | Aug 2020 | 26 | 46.1% | +55.3% | +1.0% |
| Jul 2022 | Jul 2022 | 1 | 0.0% | +12.7% | -26.4% |
| Sep 2022 | Oct 2022 | 7 | 10.4% | +22.3% | -22.4% |
| Oct 2023 | Oct 2023 | 2 | 2.0% | +14.1% | -30.3% |
| Sep 2024 | Sep 2024 | 2 | 1.6% | -48.0% | -36.0% |
| Oct 2024 | Mar 2026 | 74 | 52.9% | -46.3% | -34.7% |
| Apr 2026 | Ongoing | 24+ | 28.4% | Ongoing | -24.7% |
| Average | 19 | — | +1.7% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is DOW below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-09-18, Dow Inc. (DOW) is trading 24.0% below its 200-week moving average of $37.79. The current price is $28.73.
What is DOW's 200-week moving average price?
Dow Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $37.79 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when DOW drops below its 200-week moving average?
DOW has crossed below its 200-week moving average 7 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +1.7%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 19 weeks on average.
Is DOW a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about DOW as of 2026-09-18: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 35. Free cash flow yield is 1.1%. Return on equity is -5.5%. Price-to-book is 1.3x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does DOW compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 6.7 years, $100 invested in DOW would have grown to $101, compared to $283 for the S&P 500. That's 0.1% annualized vs 16.9% for the index. DOW has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does DOW pay a dividend?
Yes. Dow Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 475.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18