DOW
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Dow Inc. (DOW) closed at $40.29 as of 2026-05-01, trading 2.2% above its 200-week moving average of $39.41. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from -1.9% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 71, DOW is in overbought territory.
Trading volume is running at 0.9x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.04 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 323 weeks of data, DOW has crossed below its 200-week moving average 6 times. On average, these episodes lasted 20 weeks. The average one-year return after crossing below was -1.2%, suggesting these dips have not historically been reliable buying opportunities for this stock.
With a market cap of $29.0 billion, DOW is a large-cap stock. Free cash flow yield is currently negative, meaning the company is burning cash. Return on equity stands at -15.3%. The stock trades at 1.9x book value.
Over the past 6.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in DOW would have grown to $141, compared to $265 for the S&P 500. DOW has returned 5.6% annualized vs 16.9% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -100% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: DOW vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After DOW Crosses Below the Line?
Across 5 historical episodes, buying DOW when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of -4.8% after 12 months (median +4.0%), compared to +24.8% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 60% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +13.0% vs +55.3% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment DOW crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
DOW has crossed below its 200-week MA 6 times with an average 1-year return of +-1.2% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2020 | Aug 2020 | 26 | 46.1% | +56.1% | +40.9% |
| Aug 2022 | Oct 2022 | 9 | 10.3% | +18.3% | +1.5% |
| Oct 2023 | Oct 2023 | 2 | 1.9% | +14.1% | -4.3% |
| Sep 2024 | Sep 2024 | 2 | 1.5% | -48.0% | -12.2% |
| Oct 2024 | Mar 2026 | 74 | 52.8% | -46.3% | -10.4% |
| Apr 2026 | Ongoing | 4+ | 9.7% | Ongoing | +3.3% |
| Average | 20 | — | +-1.2% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is DOW below its 200-week moving average?
No. Dow Inc. (DOW) is currently 2.2% above its 200-week moving average of $39.41. It would need to fall to $39.41 to cross below the line.
What is DOW's 200-week moving average price?
Dow Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $39.41 as of 2026-05-01. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when DOW drops below its 200-week moving average?
DOW has crossed below its 200-week moving average 6 times in our data. The average one-year return after these crossings was -1.2%, meaning the dips were not reliable buying signals for this particular stock. These episodes lasted 20 weeks on average.
Is DOW a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about DOW as of 2026-05-01: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 71 (overbought). Free cash flow is currently negative. Return on equity is -15.3%. Price-to-book is 1.9x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does DOW compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 6.2 years, $100 invested in DOW would have grown to $141, compared to $265 for the S&P 500. That's 5.6% annualized vs 16.9% for the index. DOW has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does DOW pay a dividend?
Yes. Dow Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 347.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-05-01