DOW
Dow Inc. Materials - Chemicals Investor Relations →
Dow Inc. (DOW) closed at $30.29 as of 2026-07-31, trading 21.4% below its 200-week moving average of $38.53. This places DOW in the extreme value zone. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from -22.6% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 31, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.1x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.87 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 336 weeks of data, DOW has crossed below its 200-week moving average 7 times. On average, these episodes lasted 18 weeks. Historically, investors who bought DOW at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +1.7%.
With a market cap of $21.9 billion, DOW is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 1.3%. Return on equity stands at -5.5%. The stock trades at 1.4x book value.
Over the past 6.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in DOW would have grown to $105, compared to $277 for the S&P 500. DOW has returned 0.8% annualized vs 16.9% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -100% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: DOW vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After DOW Crosses Below the Line?
Across 7 historical episodes, buying DOW when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of -1.8% after 12 months (median +8.0%), compared to +23.8% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 67% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +16.0% vs +55.5% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment DOW crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. DOW currently has negative free cash flow, so price-based dislocation levels are not available. The score still tracks yield deviation from baseline.
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from DOW's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
DOW has crossed below its 200-week MA 7 times with an average 1-year return of +1.7% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2020 | Aug 2020 | 26 | 46.1% | +55.3% | +5.3% |
| Jul 2022 | Jul 2022 | 1 | 0.0% | +12.7% | -23.3% |
| Sep 2022 | Oct 2022 | 7 | 10.4% | +22.3% | -19.2% |
| Oct 2023 | Oct 2023 | 2 | 2.0% | +14.1% | -27.3% |
| Sep 2024 | Sep 2024 | 2 | 1.6% | -48.0% | -33.3% |
| Oct 2024 | Mar 2026 | 74 | 52.9% | -46.3% | -32.0% |
| Apr 2026 | Ongoing | 17+ | 28.4% | Ongoing | -21.6% |
| Average | 18 | — | +1.7% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is DOW below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-07-31, Dow Inc. (DOW) is trading 21.4% below its 200-week moving average of $38.53. The current price is $30.29.
What is DOW's 200-week moving average price?
Dow Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $38.53 as of 2026-07-31. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when DOW drops below its 200-week moving average?
DOW has crossed below its 200-week moving average 7 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +1.7%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 18 weeks on average.
Is DOW a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about DOW as of 2026-07-31: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 31. Free cash flow yield is 1.3%. Return on equity is -5.5%. Price-to-book is 1.4x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does DOW compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 6.5 years, $100 invested in DOW would have grown to $105, compared to $277 for the S&P 500. That's 0.8% annualized vs 16.9% for the index. DOW has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does DOW pay a dividend?
Yes. Dow Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 465.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-31