DOW
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Dow Inc. (DOW) closed at $31.78 as of 2026-02-02, trading 22.0% below its 200-week moving average of $40.76. This places DOW in the extreme value zone. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from -32.6% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 75, DOW is in overbought territory.
Over the past 311 weeks of data, DOW has crossed below its 200-week moving average 5 times. On average, these episodes lasted 21 weeks. Historically, investors who bought DOW at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +10.1%.
With a market cap of $22.8 billion, DOW is a large-cap stock. Free cash flow yield is currently negative, meaning the company is burning cash. Return on equity stands at -13.8%. The stock trades at 1.4x book value.
Over the past 6.1 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in DOW would have grown to $110, compared to $254 for the S&P 500. DOW has returned 1.6% annualized vs 16.6% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -100% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Growth of $100: DOW vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After DOW Crosses Below the Line?
Across 5 historical episodes, buying DOW when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of -4.8% after 12 months (median +4.0%), compared to +24.8% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 60% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +13.0% vs +55.3% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment DOW crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
DOW has crossed below its 200-week MA 5 times with an average 1-year return of +10.1% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2020 | Aug 2020 | 26 | 46.1% | +56.1% | +9.8% |
| Aug 2022 | Oct 2022 | 9 | 10.3% | +18.3% | -20.8% |
| Oct 2023 | Oct 2023 | 2 | 1.9% | +14.1% | -25.4% |
| Sep 2024 | Sep 2024 | 2 | 1.5% | -48.0% | -31.5% |
| Oct 2024 | Ongoing | 68+ | 52.8% | Ongoing | -30.2% |
| Average | 21 | — | +10.1% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02