DORM
Dorman Products, Inc. Consumer Cyclical - Auto Parts Investor Relations →
Dorman Products, Inc. (DORM) closed at $125.66 as of 2026-06-19, trading 19.0% above its 200-week moving average of $105.56. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 21.2% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 72, DORM is in overbought territory.
Trading volume is running at 1.4x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.81 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1792 weeks of data, DORM has crossed below its 200-week moving average 29 times. On average, these episodes lasted 16 weeks. Historically, investors who bought DORM at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +13.8%.
With a market cap of $3.8 billion, DORM is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 0.2%. Return on equity stands at 13.6%. The stock trades at 2.6x book value.
Over the past 33.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in DORM would have grown to $8241, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 14.1% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming DORM as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 170.9% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: DORM vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After DORM Crosses Below the Line?
Across 29 historical episodes, buying DORM when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +16.6% after 12 months (median +19.0%), compared to +20.7% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 68% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +30.6% vs +43.4% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment DORM crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices DORM would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where DORM's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-08-04.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $82.52 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $91.70 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $103.18 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $117.94 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $137.63 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from DORM's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
DORM has crossed below its 200-week MA 29 times with an average 1-year return of +13.8% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1992 | Mar 1993 | 43 | 41.8% | +9.1% | +7541.5% |
| May 1993 | May 1993 | 1 | 0.4% | -3.6% | +7405.1% |
| Mar 1994 | Apr 1994 | 2 | 9.4% | -10.7% | +7405.1% |
| Apr 1994 | Jun 1995 | 59 | 26.5% | -14.3% | +7405.1% |
| Oct 1995 | Aug 1996 | 40 | 19.8% | +14.3% | +7405.1% |
| Sep 1996 | Sep 1996 | 1 | 1.4% | +16.9% | +7023.5% |
| Sep 1996 | Oct 1996 | 1 | 3.4% | +19.0% | +7146.3% |
| Dec 1996 | Dec 1996 | 3 | 6.9% | +28.0% | +7023.5% |
| Mar 1997 | Mar 1997 | 2 | 3.0% | +40.0% | +6904.8% |
| Apr 1997 | Apr 1997 | 2 | 4.5% | +83.1% | +7023.5% |
| May 1997 | Jun 1997 | 1 | 1.1% | +75.0% | +6904.8% |
| Sep 1998 | Oct 1998 | 6 | 23.4% | -29.2% | +6365.9% |
| Dec 1998 | Mar 1999 | 13 | 10.3% | -42.3% | +6365.9% |
| Apr 1999 | Jun 1999 | 12 | 18.1% | -55.2% | +7146.3% |
| Aug 1999 | Dec 2001 | 123 | 76.7% | -67.9% | +6172.9% |
| Jan 2008 | Jul 2008 | 26 | 34.8% | -20.3% | +2264.3% |
| Sep 2008 | Dec 2008 | 11 | 27.0% | +25.1% | +2152.8% |
| Jan 2009 | Mar 2009 | 11 | 41.1% | +48.4% | +2382.8% |
| Apr 2009 | Apr 2009 | 1 | 3.9% | +91.6% | +2296.7% |
| Jan 2016 | Feb 2016 | 5 | 6.4% | +67.9% | +200.5% |
| Jul 2019 | Aug 2019 | 1 | 1.2% | +18.2% | +81.7% |
| Aug 2019 | Aug 2019 | 1 | 0.0% | +15.5% | +78.6% |
| Nov 2019 | Nov 2019 | 1 | 0.8% | +31.6% | +75.0% |
| Jan 2020 | Jul 2020 | 26 | 36.5% | +30.1% | +80.0% |
| Aug 2022 | Nov 2022 | 11 | 11.0% | -3.5% | +43.8% |
| Dec 2022 | Jan 2023 | 5 | 9.5% | -13.5% | +45.3% |
| Mar 2023 | Mar 2024 | 54 | 25.3% | +8.8% | +50.6% |
| Apr 2024 | Jul 2024 | 13 | 3.7% | +24.2% | +39.5% |
| Mar 2026 | Apr 2026 | 4 | 3.8% | N/A | +22.2% |
| Average | 16 | — | +13.8% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is DORM below its 200-week moving average?
No. Dorman Products, Inc. (DORM) is currently 19.0% above its 200-week moving average of $105.56. It would need to fall to $105.56 to cross below the line.
What is DORM's 200-week moving average price?
Dorman Products, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $105.56 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when DORM drops below its 200-week moving average?
DORM has crossed below its 200-week moving average 29 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +13.8%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 16 weeks on average.
Is DORM a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about DORM as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 72 (overbought). Free cash flow yield is 0.2%. Return on equity is 13.6%. Price-to-book is 2.6x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does DORM compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.5 years, $100 invested in DORM would have grown to $8241, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That's 14.1% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. DORM has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19