DNLI
Denali Therapeutics Inc. Healthcare - Biotechnology Investor Relations →
Denali Therapeutics Inc. (DNLI) closed at $21.08 as of 2026-02-02, trading 6.8% below its 200-week moving average of $22.63. This places DNLI in the deep value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -4.1% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 65, indicating neutral momentum.
Over the past 378 weeks of data, DNLI has crossed below its 200-week moving average 8 times. On average, these episodes lasted 30 weeks. Historically, investors who bought DNLI at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +45.8%.
With a market cap of $3.3 billion, DNLI is a mid-cap stock. Free cash flow yield is currently negative, meaning the company is burning cash. Return on equity stands at -44.4%. The stock trades at 3.3x book value.
Share count has increased 17.9% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 7.3 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in DNLI would have grown to $110, compared to $280 for the S&P 500. DNLI has returned 1.3% annualized vs 15.1% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Growth of $100: DNLI vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After DNLI Crosses Below the Line?
Across 8 historical episodes, buying DNLI when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +33.4% after 12 months (median +23.0%), compared to +16.8% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 50% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +124.2% vs +46.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment DNLI crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
DNLI has crossed below its 200-week MA 8 times with an average 1-year return of +45.8% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 2018 | Dec 2018 | 1 | 0.5% | +8.2% | +14.5% |
| Jan 2019 | Feb 2019 | 2 | 3.0% | +24.1% | +13.0% |
| May 2019 | Jun 2019 | 3 | 4.2% | +45.9% | +10.5% |
| Jul 2019 | Jan 2020 | 24 | 25.5% | +23.1% | +10.8% |
| Mar 2020 | Apr 2020 | 5 | 16.1% | +235.8% | +16.0% |
| Jan 2022 | Jan 2022 | 2 | 3.5% | -10.2% | -34.9% |
| Feb 2022 | Aug 2022 | 24 | 34.9% | -6.3% | -35.3% |
| Aug 2022 | Ongoing | 182+ | 60.3% | Ongoing | -36.4% |
| Average | 30 | — | +45.8% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02