DLTR
Dollar Tree Inc. Consumer Discretionary - Discount Retail Investor Relations →
Dollar Tree Inc. (DLTR) closed at $123.83 as of 2026-02-02, trading 3.6% above its 200-week moving average of $119.55. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from -1.8% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 64, indicating neutral momentum.
Over the past 1565 weeks of data, DLTR has crossed below its 200-week moving average 24 times. On average, these episodes lasted 16 weeks. Historically, investors who bought DLTR at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +13.4%.
With a market cap of $25.3 billion, DLTR is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 6.5%, which is healthy. Return on equity stands at 20.1%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 7.2x book value.
Over the past 30.1 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in DLTR would have grown to $5049, compared to $1820 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 13.9% vs 10.1% for the index — confirming DLTR as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
In the past 12 months, corporate insiders have made 4 open-market purchases totaling $2,159,601.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 56.3% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Growth of $100: DLTR vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After DLTR Crosses Below the Line?
Across 23 historical episodes, buying DLTR when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +11.0% after 12 months (median +8.0%), compared to +7.3% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 65% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +23.6% vs +14.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment DLTR crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
DLTR has crossed below its 200-week MA 24 times with an average 1-year return of +13.4% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 2000 | Jan 2001 | 4 | 8.3% | +28.9% | +1416.3% |
| Mar 2001 | Jun 2001 | 15 | 34.5% | +85.3% | +1935.6% |
| Jul 2001 | Dec 2001 | 21 | 34.3% | +22.6% | +1345.5% |
| Jan 2002 | Jan 2002 | 1 | 1.2% | -2.5% | +1221.6% |
| Jul 2002 | Jun 2003 | 46 | 37.3% | +18.7% | +1183.7% |
| Dec 2003 | Jan 2004 | 5 | 3.5% | -4.9% | +1147.9% |
| Mar 2004 | Oct 2004 | 33 | 22.1% | -6.5% | +1153.8% |
| Nov 2004 | Dec 2004 | 2 | 0.8% | -17.2% | +1212.7% |
| Jan 2005 | Mar 2006 | 64 | 27.1% | -13.0% | +1233.9% |
| Apr 2006 | Jul 2006 | 16 | 7.6% | +47.7% | +1320.1% |
| Nov 2007 | Apr 2008 | 23 | 23.9% | +32.3% | +1197.1% |
| Jun 2017 | Jul 2017 | 6 | 6.1% | +25.6% | +76.7% |
| Aug 2018 | Sep 2018 | 2 | 2.3% | +26.1% | +53.8% |
| Sep 2018 | Oct 2018 | 3 | 2.7% | +40.2% | +51.8% |
| Nov 2018 | Dec 2018 | 5 | 0.4% | +31.4% | +49.2% |
| Jan 2020 | May 2020 | 18 | 22.8% | +23.0% | +41.2% |
| Jun 2020 | Jun 2020 | 2 | 2.9% | +15.3% | +41.1% |
| Aug 2020 | Oct 2020 | 5 | 3.6% | +1.7% | +35.7% |
| Oct 2020 | Nov 2020 | 1 | 1.4% | +19.3% | +37.1% |
| Aug 2021 | Sep 2021 | 5 | 13.1% | +52.6% | +36.2% |
| Aug 2023 | Nov 2023 | 13 | 13.6% | -28.8% | +4.3% |
| Mar 2024 | Mar 2024 | 1 | 0.7% | -46.9% | -1.5% |
| Apr 2024 | Dec 2025 | 86 | 51.5% | -42.4% | -1.1% |
| Jan 2026 | Ongoing | 2+ | 1.8% | Ongoing | +5.3% |
| Average | 16 | — | +13.4% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02