DIS
The Walt Disney Company Communication Services - Entertainment Investor Relations →
The Walt Disney Company (DIS) closed at $103.89 as of 2026-06-19, trading 3.8% above its 200-week moving average of $100.12. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from -0.2% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 55, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.4x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.22 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 3315 weeks of data, DIS has crossed below its 200-week moving average 32 times. On average, these episodes lasted 24 weeks. Historically, investors who bought DIS at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +30.0%.
With a market cap of $180.4 billion, DIS is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 2.1%. Return on equity stands at 11.0%. The stock trades at 1.7x book value.
Over the past 33.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in DIS would have grown to $949, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. DIS has returned 6.9% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
In the past 12 months, corporate insiders have made 2 open-market purchases totaling $2,112,734.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 111.4% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: DIS vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After DIS Crosses Below the Line?
Across 20 historical episodes, buying DIS when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +19.5% after 12 months (median +16.0%), compared to +9.7% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 63% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +9.3% vs +13.4% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment DIS crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices DIS would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where DIS's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-08-05.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $83.15 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $88.97 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $95.66 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $103.44 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $112.59 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from DIS's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
DIS has crossed below its 200-week MA 32 times with an average 1-year return of +30.0% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 1962 | Dec 1962 | 3 | 11.3% | +48.9% | +239917.5% |
| Aug 1966 | Sep 1966 | 3 | 4.2% | +114.5% | +145087.8% |
| Sep 1966 | Oct 1966 | 3 | 9.8% | +123.3% | +139922.3% |
| Oct 1973 | Jul 1978 | 248 | 71.9% | -64.4% | +11860.7% |
| Sep 1978 | Dec 1979 | 64 | 22.4% | -0.6% | +18978.4% |
| Sep 1981 | Sep 1981 | 1 | 0.4% | +31.1% | +17469.3% |
| Nov 1983 | Mar 1984 | 18 | 12.5% | +20.9% | +15156.3% |
| Jun 1984 | Aug 1984 | 9 | 17.8% | +80.2% | +14830.5% |
| Aug 1984 | Sep 1984 | 1 | 0.0% | +61.4% | +13009.7% |
| Oct 1984 | Oct 1984 | 1 | 3.4% | +59.4% | +13391.8% |
| Oct 1984 | Nov 1984 | 1 | 0.1% | +65.1% | +12885.5% |
| Oct 1998 | Oct 1998 | 1 | 2.7% | +7.1% | +487.7% |
| Jul 1999 | Aug 1999 | 4 | 6.2% | +41.1% | +418.1% |
| Sep 1999 | Nov 1999 | 9 | 12.3% | +43.8% | +428.0% |
| Nov 2000 | Feb 2001 | 12 | 16.3% | -30.8% | +355.3% |
| Feb 2001 | May 2001 | 12 | 13.8% | -21.1% | +350.5% |
| May 2001 | Jan 2004 | 136 | 49.6% | -27.0% | +330.3% |
| Jan 2004 | Feb 2004 | 3 | 4.3% | +18.1% | +449.4% |
| Apr 2004 | May 2004 | 4 | 4.6% | +15.7% | +473.8% |
| Aug 2004 | Aug 2004 | 3 | 7.4% | +16.9% | +500.9% |
| Sep 2008 | Oct 2009 | 53 | 44.7% | -6.5% | +324.3% |
| Oct 2009 | Nov 2009 | 2 | 4.7% | +33.5% | +351.2% |
| Sep 2011 | Oct 2011 | 2 | 3.3% | +79.8% | +304.8% |
| Mar 2018 | Mar 2018 | 1 | 0.3% | +11.6% | +11.0% |
| Apr 2018 | Apr 2018 | 1 | 0.1% | +43.2% | +10.2% |
| May 2018 | Jun 2018 | 1 | 0.5% | +35.0% | +10.0% |
| Mar 2020 | May 2020 | 10 | 22.2% | +92.3% | +3.7% |
| Jun 2020 | Jun 2020 | 1 | 2.2% | +63.5% | -2.5% |
| Mar 2022 | Mar 2022 | 1 | 4.7% | -29.0% | -19.3% |
| Mar 2022 | May 2025 | 163 | 38.4% | -26.9% | -22.4% |
| Mar 2026 | Apr 2026 | 5 | 7.6% | N/A | +4.6% |
| Jun 2026 | Ongoing | 3+ | 0.6% | Ongoing | +4.2% |
| Average | 24 | — | +30.0% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is DIS below its 200-week moving average?
No. The Walt Disney Company (DIS) is currently 3.8% above its 200-week moving average of $100.12. It would need to fall to $100.12 to cross below the line.
What is DIS's 200-week moving average price?
The Walt Disney Company's 200-week moving average is $100.12 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when DIS drops below its 200-week moving average?
DIS has crossed below its 200-week moving average 32 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +30.0%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 24 weeks on average.
Is DIS a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about DIS as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 55. Free cash flow yield is 2.1%. Return on equity is 11.0%. Price-to-book is 1.7x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does DIS compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.5 years, $100 invested in DIS would have grown to $949, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That's 6.9% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. DIS has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does DIS pay a dividend?
Yes. The Walt Disney Company currently pays a dividend yield of 148.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19