DIS
The Walt Disney Company Communication Services - Entertainment Investor Relations → Deep dive →
The Walt Disney Company (DIS) closed at $102.67 as of 2026-09-18, trading 3.1% above its 200-week moving average of $99.55. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 7.1% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 54, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.4x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.85 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 3328 weeks of data, DIS has crossed below its 200-week moving average 32 times. On average, these episodes lasted 25 weeks. Historically, investors who bought DIS at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +30.0%.
With a market cap of $177.3 billion, DIS is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 2.7%. Return on equity stands at 8.0%. The stock trades at 1.6x book value.
Over the past 33.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in DIS would have grown to $945, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. DIS has returned 6.9% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
In the past 12 months, corporate insiders have made 2 open-market purchases totaling $2,112,734.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 111.4% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: DIS vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After DIS Crosses Below the Line?
Across 21 historical episodes, buying DIS when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +19.5% after 12 months (median +16.0%), compared to +9.7% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 63% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +9.3% vs +13.4% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment DIS crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices DIS would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where DIS's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-11-12.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $95.83 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $99.50 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $103.46 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $107.74 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $112.40 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | $1.85 | $2.06 | +11.1% |
| 2026-05-06 | $1.50 | $1.57 | +5.0% |
| 2026-02-02 | $1.58 | $1.63 | +3.4% |
| 2025-11-13 | $1.02 | $1.11 | +8.4% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from DIS's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
DIS has crossed below its 200-week MA 32 times with an average 1-year return of +30.0% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 1962 | Dec 1962 | 3 | 11.3% | +49.2% | +238916.5% |
| Aug 1966 | Sep 1966 | 3 | 4.2% | +114.5% | +144482.3% |
| Sep 1966 | Oct 1966 | 3 | 9.8% | +123.3% | +139338.3% |
| Oct 1973 | Jul 1978 | 248 | 71.9% | -64.4% | +11810.8% |
| Sep 1978 | Dec 1979 | 64 | 22.4% | -0.6% | +18898.8% |
| Sep 1981 | Sep 1981 | 1 | 0.4% | +31.1% | +17396.0% |
| Nov 1983 | Mar 1984 | 18 | 12.5% | +20.9% | +15092.6% |
| Jun 1984 | Aug 1984 | 9 | 17.8% | +80.2% | +14768.3% |
| Aug 1984 | Sep 1984 | 1 | 0.1% | +61.4% | +12955.1% |
| Oct 1984 | Oct 1984 | 1 | 3.5% | +59.4% | +13335.5% |
| Oct 1984 | Nov 1984 | 1 | 0.1% | +65.1% | +12831.3% |
| Oct 1998 | Oct 1998 | 1 | 2.5% | +7.1% | +484.0% |
| Jul 1999 | Aug 1999 | 4 | 6.2% | +41.1% | +415.9% |
| Sep 1999 | Nov 1999 | 9 | 12.3% | +43.8% | +425.8% |
| Nov 2000 | Feb 2001 | 12 | 16.3% | -30.8% | +353.4% |
| Feb 2001 | May 2001 | 12 | 13.8% | -21.1% | +348.6% |
| May 2001 | Jan 2004 | 136 | 49.6% | -27.0% | +328.5% |
| Jan 2004 | Feb 2004 | 3 | 4.4% | +18.1% | +447.1% |
| Apr 2004 | May 2004 | 4 | 4.6% | +15.7% | +471.4% |
| Aug 2004 | Sep 2004 | 5 | 7.4% | +16.9% | +498.4% |
| Sep 2008 | Oct 2009 | 53 | 44.7% | -6.5% | +322.5% |
| Oct 2009 | Nov 2009 | 2 | 4.7% | +33.5% | +349.3% |
| Sep 2011 | Oct 2011 | 2 | 3.4% | +79.8% | +303.1% |
| Mar 2018 | Mar 2018 | 1 | 0.3% | +11.6% | +10.5% |
| Apr 2018 | Apr 2018 | 1 | 0.1% | +43.2% | +9.7% |
| May 2018 | Jun 2018 | 1 | 0.5% | +35.0% | +9.6% |
| Mar 2020 | May 2020 | 10 | 22.2% | +92.3% | +3.3% |
| Jun 2020 | Jun 2020 | 1 | 2.3% | +63.5% | -2.9% |
| Mar 2022 | Mar 2022 | 1 | 4.7% | -29.0% | -19.6% |
| Mar 2022 | May 2025 | 163 | 38.4% | -26.9% | -22.7% |
| Mar 2026 | Apr 2026 | 5 | 7.7% | N/A | +4.2% |
| Jun 2026 | Aug 2026 | 9 | 4.3% | N/A | +3.8% |
| Average | 25 | — | +30.0% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is DIS below its 200-week moving average?
No. The Walt Disney Company (DIS) is currently 3.1% above its 200-week moving average of $99.55. It would need to fall to $99.55 to cross below the line.
What is DIS's 200-week moving average price?
The Walt Disney Company's 200-week moving average is $99.55 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when DIS drops below its 200-week moving average?
DIS has crossed below its 200-week moving average 32 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +30.0%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 25 weeks on average.
Is DIS a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about DIS as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 54. Free cash flow yield is 2.7%. Return on equity is 8.0%. Price-to-book is 1.6x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does DIS compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.8 years, $100 invested in DIS would have grown to $945, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. That's 6.9% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. DIS has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does DIS pay a dividend?
Yes. The Walt Disney Company currently pays a dividend yield of 142.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18