DINO
HF Sinclair Corporation Energy - Refining Investor Relations →
HF Sinclair Corporation (DINO) closed at $64.50 as of 2026-06-19, trading 39.4% above its 200-week moving average of $46.26. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 54.4% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 61, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.2x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.23 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2365 weeks of data, DINO has crossed below its 200-week moving average 24 times. On average, these episodes lasted 32 weeks. Historically, investors who bought DINO at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +12.1%.
With a market cap of $11.6 billion, DINO is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 11.9%, which is notably high. Return on equity stands at 13.0%. The stock trades at 1.2x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 7.8% over the past three years.
Over the past 33.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in DINO would have grown to $11122, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 15.1% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming DINO as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -37.5% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: DINO vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After DINO Crosses Below the Line?
Across 19 historical episodes, buying DINO when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +7.6% after 12 months (median +7.0%), compared to +15.6% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 61% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was -0.9% vs +39.5% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment DINO crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices DINO would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where DINO's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-07-30.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $57.46 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $61.86 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $67.00 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $73.06 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $80.34 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from DINO's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
DINO has crossed below its 200-week MA 24 times with an average 1-year return of +12.1% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 1981 | Apr 1983 | 112 | 45.3% | -32.6% | +143705.4% |
| Sep 1983 | Oct 1983 | 1 | 5.2% | +3.8% | +175047.4% |
| Oct 1983 | Nov 1983 | 5 | 14.8% | +2.8% | +189643.3% |
| Jul 1984 | Aug 1984 | 2 | 9.4% | +57.1% | +177321.8% |
| Sep 1984 | Mar 1985 | 26 | 25.2% | +59.0% | +175047.4% |
| Apr 1992 | May 1992 | 3 | 4.8% | +29.3% | +12834.2% |
| Jul 1992 | Nov 1992 | 16 | 10.1% | +11.0% | +12002.2% |
| Mar 1993 | Mar 1993 | 1 | 0.0% | +12.7% | +11128.4% |
| Dec 1993 | Dec 1993 | 1 | 0.5% | -5.2% | +11008.6% |
| Aug 1994 | Apr 1995 | 36 | 13.1% | -10.3% | +11206.7% |
| May 1995 | Apr 1996 | 47 | 15.2% | +6.1% | +10804.5% |
| Jun 1996 | Jul 1996 | 2 | 1.1% | +2.5% | +11050.1% |
| Oct 1996 | Nov 1996 | 4 | 5.4% | +13.2% | +10890.6% |
| Mar 1997 | Apr 1997 | 6 | 7.5% | +12.4% | +10950.5% |
| May 1997 | Jun 1997 | 3 | 1.9% | +15.7% | +11066.5% |
| Jul 1998 | Dec 2000 | 125 | 48.5% | -35.2% | +10983.0% |
| Jan 2001 | Jan 2001 | 2 | 1.6% | +148.8% | +14273.2% |
| Jun 2008 | Nov 2010 | 126 | 66.0% | -50.9% | +613.4% |
| Jan 2015 | Jan 2015 | 2 | 13.7% | +13.5% | +208.9% |
| Jan 2016 | Sep 2017 | 89 | 42.4% | -10.8% | +146.4% |
| May 2019 | Jun 2019 | 3 | 6.0% | -14.4% | +115.3% |
| Feb 2020 | May 2022 | 114 | 57.3% | +17.1% | +137.4% |
| Oct 2024 | Jun 2025 | 36 | 35.5% | +33.6% | +62.2% |
| Jul 2025 | Aug 2025 | 1 | 1.3% | N/A | +58.0% |
| Average | 32 | — | +12.1% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is DINO below its 200-week moving average?
No. HF Sinclair Corporation (DINO) is currently 39.4% above its 200-week moving average of $46.26. It would need to fall to $46.26 to cross below the line.
What is DINO's 200-week moving average price?
HF Sinclair Corporation's 200-week moving average is $46.26 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when DINO drops below its 200-week moving average?
DINO has crossed below its 200-week moving average 24 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +12.1%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 32 weeks on average.
Is DINO a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about DINO as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 61. Free cash flow yield is 11.9%. Return on equity is 13.0%. Price-to-book is 1.2x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does DINO compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.5 years, $100 invested in DINO would have grown to $11122, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That's 15.1% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. DINO has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does DINO pay a dividend?
Yes. HF Sinclair Corporation currently pays a dividend yield of 300.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19