DINO
HF Sinclair Corporation Energy - Refining Investor Relations →
HF Sinclair Corporation (DINO) closed at $115.90 as of 2026-09-18, trading 137.6% above its 200-week moving average of $48.79. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 122.4% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 78, DINO is in overbought territory.
Trading volume is running at 1.6x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.97 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2378 weeks of data, DINO has crossed below its 200-week moving average 23 times. On average, these episodes lasted 33 weeks. Historically, investors who bought DINO at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +16.8%.
With a market cap of $20.6 billion, DINO is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 9.9%, which is notably high. Return on equity stands at 19.5%, a solid level. The stock trades at 2.0x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 7.8% over the past three years. DINO passes our Buffett quality screen: high return on equity, low debt, and positive free cash flow.
Over the past 33.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in DINO would have grown to $20109, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 17.0% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming DINO as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -37.5% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: DINO vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After DINO Crosses Below the Line?
Across 18 historical episodes, buying DINO when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +14.2% after 12 months (median +8.0%), compared to +16.6% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 61% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was -0.9% vs +41.1% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment DINO crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices DINO would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where DINO's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-10-29.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $54.75 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $62.62 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $73.13 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $87.89 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $110.10 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28 | $4.49 | $5.31 | +18.3% |
| 2026-05-01 | $-0.05 | $0.69 | +1411.0% |
| 2026-02-18 | $0.45 | $1.20 | +165.2% |
| 2025-10-30 | $1.86 | $2.44 | +30.9% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from DINO's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
DINO has crossed below its 200-week MA 23 times with an average 1-year return of +16.8% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 1981 | Apr 1983 | 112 | 45.3% | -32.6% | +259905.4% |
| Sep 1983 | Oct 1983 | 1 | 5.2% | +3.8% | +316573.0% |
| Oct 1983 | Nov 1983 | 5 | 14.8% | +2.8% | +342962.8% |
| Jul 1984 | Aug 1984 | 2 | 9.4% | +57.1% | +320685.4% |
| Sep 1984 | Mar 1985 | 26 | 25.2% | +59.0% | +316573.0% |
| Apr 1992 | May 1992 | 3 | 4.9% | +29.3% | +23285.6% |
| Jul 1992 | Nov 1992 | 16 | 10.2% | +11.0% | +21781.3% |
| Dec 1993 | Dec 1993 | 1 | 0.6% | -4.9% | +19984.8% |
| Aug 1994 | Apr 1995 | 36 | 13.2% | -10.3% | +20342.9% |
| May 1995 | Apr 1996 | 47 | 15.2% | +6.1% | +19615.8% |
| Jun 1996 | Jul 1996 | 2 | 1.1% | +2.5% | +20059.8% |
| Oct 1996 | Nov 1996 | 4 | 5.4% | +13.2% | +19771.5% |
| Mar 1997 | Apr 1997 | 6 | 7.6% | +12.5% | +19786.6% |
| May 1997 | Jun 1997 | 3 | 1.9% | +15.7% | +20089.5% |
| Jul 1998 | Dec 2000 | 125 | 48.6% | -35.2% | +19938.4% |
| Jan 2001 | Jan 2001 | 2 | 1.7% | +148.8% | +25887.3% |
| Jun 2008 | Nov 2010 | 126 | 66.0% | -50.9% | +1189.8% |
| Jan 2015 | Jan 2015 | 3 | 13.8% | +8.3% | +382.4% |
| Jan 2016 | Sep 2017 | 90 | 42.5% | -10.8% | +345.5% |
| May 2019 | Jun 2019 | 3 | 6.1% | -14.4% | +289.2% |
| Feb 2020 | May 2022 | 114 | 57.3% | +18.2% | +329.3% |
| Oct 2024 | Jun 2025 | 36 | 35.5% | +33.6% | +193.2% |
| Jul 2025 | Aug 2025 | 1 | 1.3% | +124.0% | +185.6% |
| Average | 33 | — | +16.8% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is DINO below its 200-week moving average?
No. HF Sinclair Corporation (DINO) is currently 137.6% above its 200-week moving average of $48.79. It would need to fall to $48.79 to cross below the line.
What is DINO's 200-week moving average price?
HF Sinclair Corporation's 200-week moving average is $48.79 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when DINO drops below its 200-week moving average?
DINO has crossed below its 200-week moving average 23 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +16.8%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 33 weeks on average.
Is DINO a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about DINO as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 78 (overbought). Free cash flow yield is 9.9%. Return on equity is 19.5%. Price-to-book is 2.0x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does DINO compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.8 years, $100 invested in DINO would have grown to $20109, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. That's 17.0% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. DINO has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does DINO pay a dividend?
Yes. HF Sinclair Corporation currently pays a dividend yield of 181.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18