DHI
D.R. Horton Inc. Consumer Discretionary - Homebuilders Investor Relations →
D.R. Horton Inc. (DHI) closed at $157.81 as of 2026-06-19, trading 20.1% above its 200-week moving average of $131.42. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 17.6% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 61, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.3x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.19 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1728 weeks of data, DHI has crossed below its 200-week moving average 13 times. On average, these episodes lasted 24 weeks. Historically, investors who bought DHI at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +47.4%.
With a market cap of $44.8 billion, DHI is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 6.4%, which is healthy. Return on equity stands at 13.1%. The stock trades at 1.9x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 14.4% over the past three years.
Over the past 33.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in DHI would have grown to $13181, compared to $2995 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 15.9% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming DHI as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 99.5% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: DHI vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After DHI Crosses Below the Line?
Across 13 historical episodes, buying DHI when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +50.5% after 12 months (median +49.0%), compared to +18.7% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 85% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +69.0% vs +31.2% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment DHI crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices DHI would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where DHI's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-07-21.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $128.88 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $136.21 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $144.43 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $153.70 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $164.24 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from DHI's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
DHI has crossed below its 200-week MA 13 times with an average 1-year return of +47.4% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 1994 | Aug 1994 | 2 | 3.7% | +47.4% | +12353.2% |
| Nov 1994 | May 1995 | 24 | 21.0% | +50.9% | +12140.9% |
| Sep 1999 | Jul 2000 | 45 | 25.4% | +47.2% | +5640.9% |
| Jul 2006 | Nov 2006 | 18 | 14.6% | -1.2% | +873.2% |
| Feb 2007 | Jan 2011 | 201 | 80.4% | -42.4% | +700.1% |
| Jan 2011 | Feb 2011 | 1 | 1.8% | +26.7% | +1488.8% |
| Feb 2011 | Mar 2011 | 1 | 2.3% | +23.2% | +1521.1% |
| Jun 2011 | Jun 2011 | 2 | 3.9% | +50.2% | +1621.1% |
| Aug 2011 | Oct 2011 | 12 | 18.9% | +68.6% | +1677.2% |
| Nov 2011 | Nov 2011 | 1 | 0.7% | +81.7% | +1598.5% |
| Dec 2018 | Dec 2018 | 1 | 0.9% | +61.9% | +409.1% |
| Mar 2020 | Apr 2020 | 6 | 21.1% | +107.7% | +328.4% |
| Jun 2022 | Jun 2022 | 1 | 4.8% | +94.3% | +171.5% |
| Average | 24 | — | +47.4% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is DHI below its 200-week moving average?
No. D.R. Horton Inc. (DHI) is currently 20.1% above its 200-week moving average of $131.42. It would need to fall to $131.42 to cross below the line.
What is DHI's 200-week moving average price?
D.R. Horton Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $131.42 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when DHI drops below its 200-week moving average?
DHI has crossed below its 200-week moving average 13 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +47.4%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 24 weeks on average.
Is DHI a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about DHI as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 61. Free cash flow yield is 6.4%. Return on equity is 13.1%. Price-to-book is 1.9x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does DHI compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.2 years, $100 invested in DHI would have grown to $13181, compared to $2995 for the S&P 500. That's 15.9% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. DHI has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does DHI pay a dividend?
Yes. D.R. Horton Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 115.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19