DEO
Diageo plc Consumer Staples - Beverages Investor Relations →
Diageo plc (DEO) closed at $85.59 as of 2026-09-18, trading 28.7% below its 200-week moving average of $120.06. This places DEO in the extreme value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -28.1% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 56, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.2x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.39 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1805 weeks of data, DEO has crossed below its 200-week moving average 22 times. On average, these episodes lasted 21 weeks. Historically, investors who bought DEO at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +21.4%.
With a market cap of $47.6 billion, DEO is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 5.4%, which is healthy. Return on equity stands at 15.0%, a solid level. The stock trades at 78.9x book value.
Over the past 33.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in DEO would have grown to $857, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. DEO has returned 6.6% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 12.9% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation. A business generating more cash every year while trading below its 200-week moving average is exactly the kind of disconnect value investors look for.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: DEO vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After DEO Crosses Below the Line?
Across 22 historical episodes, buying DEO when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +21.9% after 12 months (median +22.0%), compared to +23.9% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 82% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +36.6% vs +37.5% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment DEO crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from DEO's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
DEO has crossed below its 200-week MA 22 times with an average 1-year return of +21.4% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 1992 | Dec 1993 | 64 | 14.5% | +1.3% | +789.0% |
| Feb 1994 | Feb 1994 | 1 | 4.7% | N/A | +755.9% |
| May 1994 | Aug 1994 | 11 | 12.8% | -2.7% | +715.9% |
| Sep 1994 | Oct 1994 | 7 | 3.8% | +6.5% | +742.9% |
| Nov 1994 | Apr 1995 | 22 | 8.9% | +8.9% | +726.7% |
| May 1995 | Aug 1995 | 15 | 5.6% | +2.0% | +714.4% |
| Aug 1995 | Sep 1995 | 1 | 0.5% | +13.2% | +714.4% |
| Dec 1999 | Oct 2000 | 44 | 30.7% | +15.0% | +466.5% |
| Sep 2008 | Nov 2009 | 57 | 36.3% | -2.5% | +115.9% |
| Feb 2010 | Mar 2010 | 4 | 4.6% | +29.9% | +112.5% |
| May 2010 | Jul 2010 | 9 | 7.6% | +36.1% | +112.5% |
| Aug 2010 | Aug 2010 | 1 | 0.4% | +21.9% | +100.8% |
| Aug 2015 | Sep 2015 | 6 | 4.5% | +12.5% | +6.6% |
| Dec 2015 | Jun 2016 | 29 | 7.8% | -2.7% | +2.4% |
| Oct 2016 | Jan 2017 | 15 | 9.0% | +28.5% | +0.8% |
| Mar 2020 | Apr 2020 | 4 | 17.3% | +34.7% | -21.1% |
| Apr 2020 | Apr 2020 | 1 | 0.2% | +40.2% | -24.3% |
| Jun 2020 | Jun 2020 | 1 | 1.1% | +49.1% | -24.5% |
| Aug 2020 | Aug 2020 | 1 | 0.5% | +50.8% | -25.6% |
| Aug 2020 | Sep 2020 | 4 | 4.3% | +50.5% | -25.5% |
| Oct 2020 | Nov 2020 | 1 | 4.5% | +56.8% | -23.8% |
| Aug 2023 | Ongoing | 160+ | 43.6% | Ongoing | -43.3% |
| Average | 21 | — | +21.4% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is DEO below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-09-18, Diageo plc (DEO) is trading 28.7% below its 200-week moving average of $120.06. The current price is $85.59.
What is DEO's 200-week moving average price?
Diageo plc's 200-week moving average is $120.06 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when DEO drops below its 200-week moving average?
DEO has crossed below its 200-week moving average 22 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +21.4%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 21 weeks on average.
Is DEO a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about DEO as of 2026-09-18: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 56. Free cash flow yield is 5.4%. Return on equity is 15.0%. Price-to-book is 78.9x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does DEO compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.8 years, $100 invested in DEO would have grown to $857, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. That's 6.6% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. DEO has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does DEO pay a dividend?
Yes. Diageo plc currently pays a dividend yield of 231.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18