DEO
Diageo plc Consumer Staples - Beverages Investor Relations →
Diageo plc (DEO) closed at $73.87 as of 2026-03-20, trading 43.6% below its 200-week moving average of $130.91. This places DEO in the extreme value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -41.1% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 32, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.2x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.72 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1779 weeks of data, DEO has crossed below its 200-week moving average 22 times. On average, these episodes lasted 20 weeks. Historically, investors who bought DEO at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +21.4%.
With a market cap of $41.1 billion, DEO is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 2.3%. Return on equity stands at 19.7%, a solid level. The stock trades at 14.2x book value.
Over the past 33.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in DEO would have grown to $732, compared to $2683 for the S&P 500. DEO has returned 6.2% annualized vs 10.4% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: DEO vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After DEO Crosses Below the Line?
Across 22 historical episodes, buying DEO when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +21.7% after 12 months (median +22.0%), compared to +23.9% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 82% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +36.5% vs +37.5% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment DEO crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
DEO has crossed below its 200-week MA 22 times with an average 1-year return of +21.4% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 1992 | Dec 1993 | 64 | 14.4% | +1.3% | +659.6% |
| Feb 1994 | Feb 1994 | 1 | 4.7% | N/A | +631.3% |
| May 1994 | Aug 1994 | 11 | 12.7% | -2.7% | +597.1% |
| Sep 1994 | Oct 1994 | 7 | 3.7% | +6.5% | +620.2% |
| Nov 1994 | Apr 1995 | 22 | 10.6% | +8.9% | +606.3% |
| May 1995 | Aug 1995 | 15 | 5.5% | +2.0% | +595.8% |
| Aug 1995 | Sep 1995 | 1 | 0.4% | +13.2% | +595.8% |
| Dec 1999 | Oct 2000 | 45 | 32.1% | +15.0% | +384.1% |
| Sep 2008 | Nov 2009 | 57 | 36.3% | -2.5% | +84.5% |
| Feb 2010 | Mar 2010 | 5 | 4.6% | +29.9% | +81.6% |
| May 2010 | Jul 2010 | 9 | 7.5% | +36.1% | +81.6% |
| Aug 2010 | Aug 2010 | 1 | 0.3% | +21.9% | +71.6% |
| Aug 2015 | Sep 2015 | 6 | 4.4% | +12.5% | -8.9% |
| Dec 2015 | Jun 2016 | 29 | 7.7% | -2.7% | -12.5% |
| Oct 2016 | Jan 2017 | 15 | 9.0% | +28.5% | -13.9% |
| Mar 2020 | Apr 2020 | 4 | 17.3% | +34.7% | -32.6% |
| Apr 2020 | Apr 2020 | 1 | 0.2% | +40.2% | -35.3% |
| Jun 2020 | Jun 2020 | 1 | 1.0% | +49.1% | -35.5% |
| Aug 2020 | Aug 2020 | 1 | 0.5% | +50.8% | -36.4% |
| Aug 2020 | Sep 2020 | 4 | 4.2% | +50.5% | -36.4% |
| Oct 2020 | Nov 2020 | 1 | 4.5% | +56.8% | -34.9% |
| Aug 2023 | Ongoing | 135+ | 43.6% | Ongoing | -51.8% |
| Average | 20 | — | +21.4% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is DEO below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-03-20, Diageo plc (DEO) is trading 43.6% below its 200-week moving average of $130.91. The current price is $73.87.
What is DEO's 200-week moving average price?
Diageo plc's 200-week moving average is $130.91 as of 2026-03-20. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when DEO drops below its 200-week moving average?
DEO has crossed below its 200-week moving average 22 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +21.4%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 20 weeks on average.
Is DEO a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about DEO as of 2026-03-20: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 32. Free cash flow yield is 2.3%. Return on equity is 19.7%. Price-to-book is 14.2x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does DEO compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.2 years, $100 invested in DEO would have grown to $732, compared to $2683 for the S&P 500. That's 6.2% annualized vs 10.4% for the index. DEO has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does DEO pay a dividend?
Yes. Diageo plc currently pays a dividend yield of 449.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-03-20