DELL
Dell Technologies Inc. Technology - Computer Hardware Investor Relations →
Dell Technologies Inc. (DELL) closed at $568.06 as of 2026-09-18, trading 336.1% above its 200-week moving average of $130.27. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 344.5% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 70, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.7x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.25 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 478 weeks of data, DELL has crossed below its 200-week moving average 3 times. On average, these episodes lasted 7 weeks. Historically, investors who bought DELL at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +143.0%.
With a market cap of $361.2 billion, DELL is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 1.7%. The stock trades at -256.8x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 9.0% over the past three years.
Over the past 9.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in DELL would have grown to $3460, compared to $356 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 46.7% vs 14.7% for the index — confirming DELL as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 147.8% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: DELL vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After DELL Crosses Below the Line?
Across 3 historical episodes, buying DELL when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +133.0% after 12 months (median +108.0%), compared to +27.7% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 100% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +170.0% vs +52.3% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment DELL crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices DELL would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where DELL's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-11-27.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $348.84 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $534.83 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $1145.66 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | N/A | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | N/A | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | $4.92 | $7.04 | +43.1% |
| 2026-05-28 | $2.96 | $4.86 | +64.0% |
| 2026-02-26 | $3.51 | $3.89 | +10.7% |
| 2025-11-25 | $2.48 | $2.59 | +4.5% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from DELL's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
DELL has crossed below its 200-week MA 3 times with an average 1-year return of +143.0% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2020 | May 2020 | 13 | 27.6% | +100.4% | +2949.4% |
| Sep 2022 | Oct 2022 | 4 | 7.3% | +103.9% | +1634.8% |
| Mar 2023 | Mar 2023 | 3 | 2.5% | +224.8% | +1548.7% |
| Average | 7 | — | +143.0% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is DELL below its 200-week moving average?
No. Dell Technologies Inc. (DELL) is currently 336.1% above its 200-week moving average of $130.27. It would need to fall to $130.27 to cross below the line.
What is DELL's 200-week moving average price?
Dell Technologies Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $130.27 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when DELL drops below its 200-week moving average?
DELL has crossed below its 200-week moving average 3 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +143.0%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 7 weeks on average.
Is DELL a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about DELL as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 70. Free cash flow yield is 1.7%. Price-to-book is -256.8x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does DELL compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 9.2 years, $100 invested in DELL would have grown to $3460, compared to $356 for the S&P 500. That's 46.7% annualized vs 14.7% for the index. DELL has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does DELL pay a dividend?
Yes. Dell Technologies Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 44.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18