DDS
Dillard's Inc. Consumer Discretionary - Department Stores Investor Relations →
Dillard's Inc. (DDS) closed at $636.26 as of 2026-09-18, trading 53.5% above its 200-week moving average of $414.58. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 57.6% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 53, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.6x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.89 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2378 weeks of data, DDS has crossed below its 200-week moving average 26 times. On average, these episodes lasted 30 weeks. The average one-year return after crossing below was -3.8%, suggesting these dips have not historically been reliable buying opportunities for this stock.
With a market cap of $9.9 billion, DDS is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 3.7%. Return on equity stands at 33.8%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 4.7x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 8.9% over the past three years. DDS passes our Buffett quality screen: high return on equity, low debt, and positive free cash flow.
Over the past 33.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in DDS would have grown to $2167, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. DDS has returned 9.5% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -9% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: DDS vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After DDS Crosses Below the Line?
Across 22 historical episodes, buying DDS when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of -13.1% after 12 months (median -21.0%), compared to +17.3% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 27% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +13.7% vs +36.4% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment DDS crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices DDS would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where DDS's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-11-12.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $538.24 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $567.70 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $600.56 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $637.47 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $679.21 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-13 | $4.21 | $6.26 | +48.6% |
| 2026-05-14 | $9.86 | $10.95 | +11.1% |
| 2026-02-24 | $9.14 | $12.16 | +33.1% |
| 2025-11-13 | $6.20 | $8.29 | +33.7% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from DDS's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
DDS has crossed below its 200-week MA 26 times with an average 1-year return of +-3.8% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 1981 | Mar 1981 | 3 | 9.5% | +77.7% | +201311.1% |
| Oct 1987 | Nov 1987 | 1 | 3.0% | +42.4% | +10284.3% |
| Nov 1987 | Jan 1988 | 10 | 24.8% | +46.6% | +11653.2% |
| Feb 1988 | Mar 1988 | 1 | 1.0% | +35.4% | +9569.9% |
| Aug 1993 | Aug 1993 | 1 | 1.4% | -23.4% | +2930.6% |
| Aug 1993 | Sep 1993 | 3 | 6.2% | -21.4% | +2898.5% |
| Oct 1993 | Oct 1993 | 1 | 0.4% | -27.7% | +2855.1% |
| Dec 1993 | Mar 1996 | 116 | 34.4% | -23.1% | +2865.5% |
| Apr 1996 | Apr 1996 | 1 | 0.6% | -7.8% | +3024.3% |
| Jul 1996 | Jul 1996 | 3 | 6.5% | +5.5% | +2998.6% |
| Sep 1996 | Sep 1996 | 1 | 2.0% | +28.9% | +3068.8% |
| Sep 1996 | Mar 1997 | 25 | 11.3% | +35.2% | +3125.7% |
| Mar 1997 | May 1997 | 6 | 5.6% | +20.2% | +3286.8% |
| Aug 1998 | Nov 1998 | 10 | 13.4% | -27.5% | +3081.9% |
| Nov 1998 | May 1999 | 24 | 26.0% | -38.6% | +3312.7% |
| Jul 1999 | Mar 2002 | 137 | 64.9% | -55.2% | +3064.8% |
| Sep 2002 | Jan 2004 | 67 | 31.7% | -14.4% | +5630.8% |
| May 2004 | May 2004 | 1 | 5.2% | +54.2% | +6206.6% |
| Aug 2007 | Mar 2010 | 134 | 88.3% | -54.8% | +3885.8% |
| Oct 2015 | Feb 2018 | 123 | 46.5% | -32.7% | +866.1% |
| Mar 2018 | May 2018 | 11 | 11.3% | -10.1% | +947.9% |
| Aug 2018 | Sep 2018 | 4 | 5.1% | -25.4% | +1031.8% |
| Sep 2018 | Feb 2019 | 22 | 23.0% | -17.6% | +1004.2% |
| May 2019 | Jul 2019 | 10 | 16.8% | -56.8% | +1171.2% |
| Aug 2019 | Sep 2019 | 8 | 16.7% | -54.2% | +1260.1% |
| Jan 2020 | Jan 2021 | 50 | 62.9% | +47.1% | +1275.5% |
| Average | 30 | — | +-3.8% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is DDS below its 200-week moving average?
No. Dillard's Inc. (DDS) is currently 53.5% above its 200-week moving average of $414.58. It would need to fall to $414.58 to cross below the line.
What is DDS's 200-week moving average price?
Dillard's Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $414.58 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when DDS drops below its 200-week moving average?
DDS has crossed below its 200-week moving average 26 times in our data. The average one-year return after these crossings was -3.8%, meaning the dips were not reliable buying signals for this particular stock. These episodes lasted 30 weeks on average.
Is DDS a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about DDS as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 53. Free cash flow yield is 3.7%. Return on equity is 33.8%. Price-to-book is 4.7x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does DDS compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.8 years, $100 invested in DDS would have grown to $2167, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. That's 9.5% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. DDS has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does DDS pay a dividend?
Yes. Dillard's Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 19.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18