DBX
Dropbox Inc. Technology - Cloud Storage Investor Relations →
Dropbox Inc. (DBX) closed at $25.00 as of 2026-02-02, trading 2.2% below its 200-week moving average of $25.56. This places DBX in the below line zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -0.3% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 30, DBX is in oversold territory.
Over the past 363 weeks of data, DBX has crossed below its 200-week moving average 10 times. On average, these episodes lasted 20 weeks. Historically, investors who bought DBX at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +2.9%.
With a market cap of $6.5 billion, DBX is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 12.9%, which is notably high. The stock trades at -4.2x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 21.2% over the past three years.
Over the past 7.1 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in DBX would have grown to $105, compared to $276 for the S&P 500. DBX has returned 0.6% annualized vs 15.4% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 7.5% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation. A business generating more cash every year while trading below its 200-week moving average is exactly the kind of disconnect value investors look for.
Growth of $100: DBX vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After DBX Crosses Below the Line?
Across 9 historical episodes, buying DBX when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +4.2% after 12 months (median -1.0%), compared to +10.2% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 44% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +11.1% vs +25.3% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment DBX crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
DBX has crossed below its 200-week MA 10 times with an average 1-year return of +2.9% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2019 | Dec 2020 | 94 | 31.8% | -18.1% | +4.6% |
| Dec 2020 | Feb 2021 | 5 | 3.0% | +10.6% | +12.7% |
| Feb 2021 | Mar 2021 | 1 | 1.0% | -2.9% | +10.9% |
| Nov 2021 | Dec 2021 | 2 | 0.0% | -2.6% | +4.3% |
| Jan 2022 | Jan 2022 | 3 | 1.9% | -6.2% | +5.8% |
| Feb 2022 | Aug 2022 | 24 | 14.1% | -7.8% | +8.6% |
| Aug 2022 | Jan 2023 | 22 | 12.1% | +23.8% | +13.4% |
| Feb 2023 | May 2023 | 13 | 16.1% | +18.2% | +17.8% |
| Feb 2024 | Sep 2024 | 31 | 13.4% | +11.4% | +4.2% |
| Jan 2026 | Ongoing | 2+ | 2.2% | Ongoing | -1.9% |
| Average | 20 | — | +2.9% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02