DAN
Dana Incorporated Consumer Cyclical - Auto Parts Investor Relations →
Dana Incorporated (DAN) closed at $29.81 as of 2026-09-18, trading 72.3% above its 200-week moving average of $17.30. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 75.8% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 51, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.5x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.93 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 928 weeks of data, DAN has crossed below its 200-week moving average 13 times. On average, these episodes lasted 28 weeks. Historically, investors who bought DAN at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +91.5%.
With a market cap of $3.2 billion, DAN is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 19.7%, which is notably high. Return on equity stands at -1.6%. The stock trades at 1.7x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 21.7% over the past three years.
Over the past 17.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in DAN would have grown to $4734, compared to $1160 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 24.1% vs 14.7% for the index — confirming DAN as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 12.6% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: DAN vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After DAN Crosses Below the Line?
Across 13 historical episodes, buying DAN when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +90.7% after 12 months (median -15.0%), compared to +11.1% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 23% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +179.8% vs +38.8% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment DAN crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices DAN would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where DAN's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-10-28.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $20.83 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $23.29 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $26.41 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $30.48 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $36.05 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06 | $0.69 | $0.29 | -57.5% |
| 2026-05-15 | $0.44 | $0.51 | +16.7% |
| 2026-02-27 | $0.38 | $0.12 | -68.6% |
| 2025-10-29 | $0.32 | $0.18 | -45.6% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from DAN's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
DAN has crossed below its 200-week MA 13 times with an average 1-year return of +91.5% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 2008 | Aug 2009 | 36 | 96.8% | +1231.9% | +5525.3% |
| Aug 2015 | Nov 2016 | 67 | 41.7% | -10.8% | +128.3% |
| Apr 2017 | Apr 2017 | 1 | 0.9% | +49.2% | +102.2% |
| Aug 2018 | Aug 2018 | 1 | 0.1% | -29.6% | +82.4% |
| Sep 2018 | Feb 2019 | 23 | 32.0% | -22.4% | +84.1% |
| Mar 2019 | Apr 2019 | 4 | 10.7% | -43.6% | +87.7% |
| Apr 2019 | Jun 2019 | 8 | 18.6% | -40.0% | +94.2% |
| Jul 2019 | Dec 2020 | 73 | 67.0% | -34.2% | +89.4% |
| Mar 2022 | Nov 2022 | 36 | 29.9% | +13.0% | +129.5% |
| Nov 2022 | Jan 2023 | 8 | 13.0% | -14.7% | +96.3% |
| Feb 2023 | Jun 2023 | 18 | 20.6% | -20.9% | +107.8% |
| Aug 2023 | Jan 2025 | 76 | 52.2% | -37.7% | +91.7% |
| Feb 2025 | May 2025 | 10 | 26.7% | +149.7% | +116.4% |
| Average | 28 | — | +91.5% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is DAN below its 200-week moving average?
No. Dana Incorporated (DAN) is currently 72.3% above its 200-week moving average of $17.30. It would need to fall to $17.30 to cross below the line.
What is DAN's 200-week moving average price?
Dana Incorporated's 200-week moving average is $17.30 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when DAN drops below its 200-week moving average?
DAN has crossed below its 200-week moving average 13 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +91.5%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 28 weeks on average.
Is DAN a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about DAN as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 51. Free cash flow yield is 19.7%. Return on equity is -1.6%. Price-to-book is 1.7x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does DAN compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 17.8 years, $100 invested in DAN would have grown to $4734, compared to $1160 for the S&P 500. That's 24.1% annualized vs 14.7% for the index. DAN has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does DAN pay a dividend?
Yes. Dana Incorporated currently pays a dividend yield of 161.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18