DAL
Delta Air Lines Inc. Industrials - Airlines Investor Relations →
Delta Air Lines Inc. (DAL) closed at $84.18 as of 2026-06-19, trading 74.4% above its 200-week moving average of $48.26. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 73.0% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 79, DAL is in overbought territory.
Over the past 14 weeks, up-weeks have carried more volume than down-weeks (1.59 buyers-vs-sellers ratio). When trading picks up, it's more often on days the price is rising — buyers are showing more interest than sellers.
Over the past 950 weeks of data, DAL has crossed below its 200-week moving average 13 times. On average, these episodes lasted 26 weeks. Historically, investors who bought DAL at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +32.3%.
With a market cap of $55.3 billion, DAL is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 5.6%, which is healthy. Return on equity stands at 25.0%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 2.7x book value.
Over the past 18.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in DAL would have grown to $1152, compared to $754 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 14.3% vs 11.7% for the index — confirming DAL as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: DAL vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After DAL Crosses Below the Line?
Across 13 historical episodes, buying DAL when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +32.5% after 12 months (median +4.0%), compared to +14.8% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 54% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +81.3% vs +32.7% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment DAL crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices DAL would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where DAL's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-07-09.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $57.35 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $62.02 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $67.52 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $74.08 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $82.06 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from DAL's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
DAL has crossed below its 200-week MA 13 times with an average 1-year return of +32.3% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2008 | Dec 2009 | 87 | 68.0% | -26.2% | +878.4% |
| Jun 2010 | Jul 2010 | 1 | 3.2% | -15.8% | +787.9% |
| Aug 2010 | Sep 2010 | 5 | 8.2% | -31.5% | +830.1% |
| Oct 2010 | Oct 2010 | 1 | 0.1% | -24.7% | +760.6% |
| Jan 2011 | Jan 2012 | 51 | 33.3% | -0.9% | +759.1% |
| Mar 2012 | Mar 2012 | 2 | 3.2% | +73.3% | +945.3% |
| Jul 2012 | Oct 2012 | 10 | 12.2% | +132.5% | +939.7% |
| Oct 2012 | Nov 2012 | 4 | 5.1% | +173.7% | +916.0% |
| Feb 2020 | Mar 2021 | 54 | 60.4% | +3.9% | +88.6% |
| Apr 2021 | Jun 2023 | 113 | 34.1% | -9.2% | +86.5% |
| Sep 2023 | Nov 2023 | 10 | 18.8% | +25.9% | +130.5% |
| Aug 2024 | Aug 2024 | 1 | 0.1% | +38.1% | +118.6% |
| Mar 2025 | Apr 2025 | 3 | 10.1% | +81.4% | +129.4% |
| Average | 26 | — | +32.3% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is DAL below its 200-week moving average?
No. Delta Air Lines Inc. (DAL) is currently 74.4% above its 200-week moving average of $48.26. It would need to fall to $48.26 to cross below the line.
What is DAL's 200-week moving average price?
Delta Air Lines Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $48.26 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when DAL drops below its 200-week moving average?
DAL has crossed below its 200-week moving average 13 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +32.3%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 26 weeks on average.
Is DAL a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about DAL as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 79 (overbought). Free cash flow yield is 5.6%. Return on equity is 25.0%. Price-to-book is 2.7x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does DAL compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 18.2 years, $100 invested in DAL would have grown to $1152, compared to $754 for the S&P 500. That's 14.3% annualized vs 11.7% for the index. DAL has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does DAL pay a dividend?
Yes. Delta Air Lines Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 90.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19