CWST
Casella Waste Systems, Inc. Industrials - Waste Management Investor Relations →
Casella Waste Systems, Inc. (CWST) closed at $89.07 as of 2026-09-18, trading 5.5% below its 200-week moving average of $94.22. This places CWST in the deep value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -4.5% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 50, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.4x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.94 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1459 weeks of data, CWST has crossed below its 200-week moving average 22 times. On average, these episodes lasted 28 weeks. The average one-year return after crossing below was -15.2%, suggesting these dips have not historically been reliable buying opportunities for this stock.
With a market cap of $5.7 billion, CWST is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 2.1%. Return on equity stands at 0.4%. The stock trades at 3.6x book value.
Share count has increased 22.9% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 28 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in CWST would have grown to $302, compared to $1123 for the S&P 500. CWST has returned 4.0% annualized vs 9.0% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -0.9% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: CWST vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After CWST Crosses Below the Line?
Across 22 historical episodes, buying CWST when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of -17.4% after 12 months (median -17.0%), compared to +8.2% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 25% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was -17.8% vs +17.4% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment CWST crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices CWST would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where CWST's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-11-05.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $85.53 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $89.77 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $94.44 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $99.63 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $105.42 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06 | $0.29 | $0.40 | +36.1% |
| 2026-04-30 | $0.12 | $0.20 | +69.7% |
| 2026-02-19 | $0.22 | $0.30 | +33.5% |
| 2025-10-30 | $0.32 | $0.42 | +29.5% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from CWST's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
CWST has crossed below its 200-week MA 22 times with an average 1-year return of +-15.2% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 1999 | Jul 1999 | 27 | 25.2% | -33.3% | +231.4% |
| Aug 1999 | Jul 2003 | 208 | 80.5% | -51.0% | +271.1% |
| Apr 2005 | Apr 2005 | 1 | 0.6% | +30.2% | +671.2% |
| May 2005 | Jun 2005 | 6 | 2.6% | +34.1% | +670.5% |
| Jul 2006 | Jul 2006 | 2 | 2.7% | -11.4% | +654.2% |
| Aug 2006 | Oct 2007 | 59 | 29.9% | -4.7% | +656.8% |
| Dec 2007 | Jun 2008 | 24 | 21.5% | -68.6% | +633.1% |
| Jun 2008 | Jul 2008 | 2 | 5.9% | -82.6% | +661.3% |
| Sep 2008 | Jan 2011 | 121 | 94.7% | -72.4% | +786.3% |
| Mar 2011 | Mar 2011 | 2 | 4.6% | -10.1% | +1183.4% |
| Apr 2011 | Apr 2011 | 1 | 5.6% | -2.1% | +1261.9% |
| Apr 2011 | Oct 2011 | 24 | 24.8% | -6.5% | +1217.6% |
| Nov 2011 | Nov 2011 | 1 | 5.7% | -18.4% | +1519.5% |
| May 2012 | Jun 2012 | 1 | 4.9% | -18.0% | +1721.5% |
| Aug 2012 | Sep 2012 | 5 | 6.9% | +5.8% | +1897.1% |
| Sep 2012 | Aug 2013 | 48 | 21.5% | +35.4% | +1985.9% |
| Jan 2014 | Feb 2014 | 4 | 4.4% | -26.5% | +1586.9% |
| Feb 2014 | May 2014 | 13 | 8.7% | -17.9% | +1561.8% |
| Jun 2014 | Mar 2015 | 39 | 31.1% | +12.1% | +1632.9% |
| Sep 2025 | Nov 2025 | 9 | 5.8% | +2.7% | +2.7% |
| Mar 2026 | Jun 2026 | 15 | 19.2% | N/A | +1.1% |
| Jul 2026 | Ongoing | 9+ | 5.5% | Ongoing | -0.4% |
| Average | 28 | — | +-15.2% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CWST below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-09-18, Casella Waste Systems, Inc. (CWST) is trading 5.5% below its 200-week moving average of $94.22. The current price is $89.07.
What is CWST's 200-week moving average price?
Casella Waste Systems, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $94.22 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when CWST drops below its 200-week moving average?
CWST has crossed below its 200-week moving average 22 times in our data. The average one-year return after these crossings was -15.2%, meaning the dips were not reliable buying signals for this particular stock. These episodes lasted 28 weeks on average.
Is CWST a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about CWST as of 2026-09-18: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 50. Free cash flow yield is 2.1%. Return on equity is 0.4%. Price-to-book is 3.6x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does CWST compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 28 years, $100 invested in CWST would have grown to $302, compared to $1123 for the S&P 500. That's 4.0% annualized vs 9.0% for the index. CWST has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18