CW
Curtiss-Wright Corporation Industrials - Aerospace & Defense Investor Relations →
Curtiss-Wright Corporation (CW) closed at $568.27 as of 2026-09-18, trading 51.8% above its 200-week moving average of $374.45. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 50.0% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 24, CW is in oversold territory.
A big jump in activity this week — 2.1x the usual volume, and the price went up. Significantly more people than usual decided to buy. This kind of surge, especially on a stock already below its 200-week average, can be an early sign that sentiment is shifting.
Over the past 2378 weeks of data, CW has crossed below its 200-week moving average 21 times. On average, these episodes lasted 18 weeks. Historically, investors who bought CW at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +26.9%.
With a market cap of $21.0 billion, CW is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 2.6%. Return on equity stands at 19.7%, a solid level. The stock trades at 7.6x book value.
Management has been repurchasing shares, with a 3.7% reduction over three years. CW passes our Buffett quality screen: high return on equity, low debt, and positive free cash flow.
Over the past 33.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in CW would have grown to $16380, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 16.3% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming CW as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 29.2% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: CW vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After CW Crosses Below the Line?
Across 15 historical episodes, buying CW when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +28.5% after 12 months (median +25.0%), compared to +14.9% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 80% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +69.7% vs +20.4% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment CW crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices CW would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where CW's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-11-04.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $569.52 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $638.90 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $727.53 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $844.71 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $1006.88 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | $3.62 | $3.72 | +2.8% |
| 2026-05-06 | $3.30 | $3.48 | +5.3% |
| 2026-02-11 | $3.69 | $3.79 | +2.8% |
| 2025-11-05 | $3.29 | $3.40 | +3.3% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from CW's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
CW has crossed below its 200-week MA 21 times with an average 1-year return of +26.9% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 1982 | Aug 1982 | 5 | 7.6% | +58.3% | +40242.2% |
| Mar 1984 | Dec 1985 | 92 | 26.0% | -9.6% | +35845.9% |
| Nov 1987 | Dec 1987 | 4 | 1.7% | +16.8% | +30458.4% |
| Feb 1990 | Mar 1990 | 4 | 1.5% | +7.8% | +24732.2% |
| Sep 1990 | Feb 1991 | 20 | 24.4% | +19.8% | +24180.5% |
| Feb 1991 | Mar 1991 | 1 | 1.1% | +20.6% | +23854.8% |
| Jul 1992 | Aug 1992 | 7 | 4.2% | +33.5% | +22426.7% |
| Sep 1992 | Nov 1992 | 9 | 7.3% | +12.3% | +21947.4% |
| Sep 1999 | Oct 1999 | 3 | 2.9% | +49.6% | +8806.2% |
| May 2000 | May 2000 | 1 | 0.7% | +37.1% | +8059.1% |
| Oct 2008 | Feb 2011 | 125 | 37.7% | -3.5% | +1712.5% |
| Mar 2011 | Dec 2011 | 38 | 23.2% | +13.3% | +1764.8% |
| May 2012 | Sep 2012 | 18 | 9.4% | +8.5% | +1787.0% |
| Oct 2012 | Dec 2012 | 11 | 6.3% | +48.0% | +1849.5% |
| Apr 2013 | Apr 2013 | 1 | 2.2% | +105.7% | +1856.1% |
| Mar 2020 | Nov 2020 | 37 | 30.5% | +29.4% | +505.8% |
| Dec 2020 | Dec 2020 | 1 | 0.3% | +18.1% | +414.4% |
| Jan 2021 | Feb 2021 | 2 | 8.7% | +28.2% | +458.8% |
| Feb 2021 | Mar 2021 | 1 | 3.3% | +25.9% | +424.9% |
| Jul 2021 | Jul 2021 | 2 | 1.0% | +11.7% | +399.0% |
| Sep 2021 | Sep 2021 | 1 | 3.5% | +34.4% | +410.0% |
| Average | 18 | — | +26.9% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CW below its 200-week moving average?
No. Curtiss-Wright Corporation (CW) is currently 51.8% above its 200-week moving average of $374.45. It would need to fall to $374.45 to cross below the line.
What is CW's 200-week moving average price?
Curtiss-Wright Corporation's 200-week moving average is $374.45 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when CW drops below its 200-week moving average?
CW has crossed below its 200-week moving average 21 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +26.9%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 18 weeks on average.
Is CW a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about CW as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 24 (oversold). Free cash flow yield is 2.6%. Return on equity is 19.7%. Price-to-book is 7.6x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does CW compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.8 years, $100 invested in CW would have grown to $16380, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. That's 16.3% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. CW has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does CW pay a dividend?
Yes. Curtiss-Wright Corporation currently pays a dividend yield of 18.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18