CW
Curtiss-Wright Corporation Industrials - Aerospace & Defense Investor Relations →
Curtiss-Wright Corporation (CW) closed at $771.93 as of 2026-06-19, trading 126.7% above its 200-week moving average of $340.56. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 124.5% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 74, CW is in overbought territory.
Trading volume is running at 1.6x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.38 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2365 weeks of data, CW has crossed below its 200-week moving average 22 times. On average, these episodes lasted 17 weeks. Historically, investors who bought CW at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +28.5%.
With a market cap of $28.5 billion, CW is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 1.8%. Return on equity stands at 19.7%, a solid level. The stock trades at 10.8x book value.
Management has been repurchasing shares, with a 3.7% reduction over three years. CW passes our Buffett quality screen: high return on equity, low debt, and positive free cash flow.
Over the past 33.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in CW would have grown to $22250, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 17.5% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming CW as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 29.2% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: CW vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After CW Crosses Below the Line?
Across 15 historical episodes, buying CW when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +28.5% after 12 months (median +25.0%), compared to +14.9% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 80% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +69.6% vs +20.5% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment CW crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices CW would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where CW's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-08-05.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $683.04 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $730.06 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $784.03 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $846.63 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $920.08 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from CW's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
CW has crossed below its 200-week MA 22 times with an average 1-year return of +28.5% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 1982 | Aug 1982 | 5 | 7.6% | +58.3% | +54700.3% |
| Mar 1984 | Dec 1985 | 92 | 26.0% | -9.6% | +48728.5% |
| Nov 1987 | Dec 1987 | 4 | 2.5% | +16.8% | +41410.1% |
| Feb 1990 | Mar 1990 | 4 | 1.4% | +7.8% | +33631.7% |
| Aug 1990 | Aug 1990 | 1 | 31.0% | +59.5% | +46634.3% |
| Sep 1990 | Feb 1991 | 20 | 24.1% | +19.8% | +32882.4% |
| Feb 1991 | Mar 1991 | 1 | 0.8% | +20.6% | +32439.9% |
| Jul 1992 | Aug 1992 | 7 | 3.9% | +33.5% | +30500.0% |
| Sep 1992 | Nov 1992 | 8 | 7.0% | +13.2% | +30106.0% |
| Sep 1999 | Oct 1999 | 3 | 2.9% | +49.6% | +11998.0% |
| May 2000 | May 2000 | 1 | 0.7% | +37.1% | +10983.2% |
| Oct 2008 | Feb 2011 | 125 | 37.7% | -3.5% | +2367.3% |
| Mar 2011 | Dec 2011 | 38 | 23.1% | +13.3% | +2433.2% |
| May 2012 | Sep 2012 | 18 | 9.4% | +8.5% | +2463.3% |
| Oct 2012 | Dec 2012 | 11 | 6.3% | +48.1% | +2555.4% |
| Apr 2013 | Apr 2013 | 1 | 2.2% | +105.7% | +2557.1% |
| Mar 2020 | Nov 2020 | 37 | 30.5% | +29.4% | +722.9% |
| Dec 2020 | Dec 2020 | 1 | 0.3% | +18.1% | +598.8% |
| Jan 2021 | Feb 2021 | 2 | 8.7% | +28.2% | +659.1% |
| Feb 2021 | Mar 2021 | 1 | 3.3% | +25.9% | +613.1% |
| Jul 2021 | Jul 2021 | 2 | 1.0% | +11.7% | +577.8% |
| Sep 2021 | Sep 2021 | 1 | 3.4% | +34.4% | +592.7% |
| Average | 17 | — | +28.5% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CW below its 200-week moving average?
No. Curtiss-Wright Corporation (CW) is currently 126.7% above its 200-week moving average of $340.56. It would need to fall to $340.56 to cross below the line.
What is CW's 200-week moving average price?
Curtiss-Wright Corporation's 200-week moving average is $340.56 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when CW drops below its 200-week moving average?
CW has crossed below its 200-week moving average 22 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +28.5%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 17 weeks on average.
Is CW a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about CW as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 74 (overbought). Free cash flow yield is 1.8%. Return on equity is 19.7%. Price-to-book is 10.8x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does CW compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.5 years, $100 invested in CW would have grown to $22250, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That's 17.5% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. CW has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19