CVLG
Covenant Logistics Group, Inc. Industrials - Trucking Investor Relations →
Covenant Logistics Group, Inc. (CVLG) closed at $35.52 as of 2026-07-31, trading 49.0% above its 200-week moving average of $23.85. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 96.9% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 52, indicating neutral momentum.
A big spike in selling this week — 2.1x the usual volume, and the price dropped. Sometimes this kind of heavy selling marks the end of a decline. The idea is that the last reluctant holders have finally sold, leaving fewer sellers left to push the price lower.
Over the past 1609 weeks of data, CVLG has crossed below its 200-week moving average 28 times. On average, these episodes lasted 25 weeks. Historically, investors who bought CVLG at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +19.3%.
With a market cap of $894 million, CVLG is a small-cap stock. The stock trades at 2.2x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 7.5% over the past three years.
Over the past 30.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in CVLG would have grown to $572, compared to $2181 for the S&P 500. CVLG has returned 5.8% annualized vs 10.5% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -100% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: CVLG vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After CVLG Crosses Below the Line?
Across 28 historical episodes, buying CVLG when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +27.0% after 12 months (median +17.0%), compared to +13.4% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 67% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +52.7% vs +25.8% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment CVLG crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. CVLG currently has negative free cash flow, so price-based dislocation levels are not available. The score still tracks yield deviation from baseline.
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from CVLG's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
CVLG has crossed below its 200-week MA 28 times with an average 1-year return of +19.3% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1995 | Mar 1996 | 22 | 25.9% | +24.4% | +400.1% |
| May 1996 | Jun 1996 | 1 | 0.1% | -1.6% | +383.8% |
| Nov 1996 | Jun 1997 | 29 | 24.8% | +3.2% | +379.9% |
| Dec 1997 | Feb 1998 | 7 | 8.8% | +11.4% | +368.6% |
| Jun 1998 | Jun 1998 | 1 | 2.9% | -10.7% | +372.3% |
| Aug 1998 | Nov 1998 | 14 | 37.1% | +24.3% | +417.5% |
| Mar 1999 | Jun 1999 | 15 | 25.0% | +0.4% | +408.6% |
| Sep 1999 | Jan 2001 | 70 | 49.4% | -37.9% | +364.9% |
| Feb 2001 | Apr 2001 | 9 | 15.1% | +21.8% | +445.9% |
| Jun 2001 | Aug 2001 | 11 | 23.8% | +19.2% | +472.2% |
| Sep 2001 | Dec 2001 | 13 | 34.8% | +28.5% | +414.8% |
| May 2004 | May 2004 | 4 | 0.6% | -10.8% | +375.3% |
| Oct 2004 | Oct 2004 | 1 | 0.2% | -39.9% | +347.3% |
| Mar 2005 | Apr 2010 | 263 | 86.2% | -7.5% | +359.4% |
| Aug 2011 | Jul 2012 | 52 | 51.3% | +4.4% | +1378.8% |
| Aug 2012 | Dec 2012 | 18 | 15.4% | +9.0% | +1415.0% |
| Apr 2013 | Jun 2013 | 7 | 14.8% | +78.3% | +1254.9% |
| Aug 2013 | Sep 2013 | 5 | 8.3% | +122.0% | +1200.4% |
| Oct 2016 | Oct 2016 | 3 | 7.5% | +84.7% | +388.4% |
| Mar 2017 | Apr 2017 | 4 | 5.1% | +67.2% | +315.8% |
| May 2017 | Aug 2017 | 14 | 12.2% | +53.7% | +309.6% |
| Nov 2018 | Feb 2019 | 14 | 22.1% | -36.7% | +211.2% |
| Feb 2019 | Mar 2021 | 109 | 69.0% | -47.3% | +223.7% |
| Apr 2021 | Apr 2021 | 1 | 4.0% | -1.1% | +280.3% |
| Jun 2021 | Aug 2021 | 8 | 6.6% | +9.6% | +269.2% |
| Apr 2022 | Apr 2022 | 3 | 7.0% | +84.7% | +298.8% |
| Apr 2025 | Apr 2025 | 1 | 2.3% | +67.4% | +95.3% |
| Oct 2025 | Dec 2025 | 6 | 6.3% | N/A | +78.6% |
| Average | 25 | — | +19.3% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CVLG below its 200-week moving average?
No. Covenant Logistics Group, Inc. (CVLG) is currently 49.0% above its 200-week moving average of $23.85. It would need to fall to $23.85 to cross below the line.
What is CVLG's 200-week moving average price?
Covenant Logistics Group, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $23.85 as of 2026-07-31. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when CVLG drops below its 200-week moving average?
CVLG has crossed below its 200-week moving average 28 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +19.3%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 25 weeks on average.
Is CVLG a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about CVLG as of 2026-07-31: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 52. Price-to-book is 2.2x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does CVLG compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 30.8 years, $100 invested in CVLG would have grown to $572, compared to $2181 for the S&P 500. That's 5.8% annualized vs 10.5% for the index. CVLG has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does CVLG pay a dividend?
Yes. Covenant Logistics Group, Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 76.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-31