CVLG

Covenant Logistics Group, Inc. Industrials - Trucking Investor Relations →

NO
85.9% ABOVE
↓ Approaching Was 99.3% last week
-15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15%+
Buy Threshold $22.94
14-Week RSI 86
Rel. Volume (14w) This week's trading vs. the 14-week average 1.1x
Buyers vs. Sellers (14w) Are up-weeks or down-weeks getting more volume? 0.91

Covenant Logistics Group, Inc. (CVLG) closed at $42.63 as of 2026-06-19, trading 85.9% above its 200-week moving average of $22.94. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 99.3% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 86, CVLG is in overbought territory.

Trading volume is running at 1.1x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.91 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.

Over the past 1603 weeks of data, CVLG has crossed below its 200-week moving average 28 times. On average, these episodes lasted 25 weeks. Historically, investors who bought CVLG at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +19.3%.

With a market cap of $1073 million, CVLG is a small-cap stock. Free cash flow yield is currently negative, meaning the company is burning cash. Return on equity stands at 0.5%. The stock trades at 2.6x book value.

The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 7.5% over the past three years.

Over the past 30.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in CVLG would have grown to $687, compared to $2181 for the S&P 500. CVLG has returned 6.5% annualized vs 10.5% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.

Free cash flow has been declining at a -100% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.

Business Health

Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.

Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)

Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy

Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)

ROIC Return on invested capital (%)

FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal

Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)

Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)

Growth of $100: CVLG vs S&P 500

Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.

What Happens After CVLG Crosses Below the Line?

Across 28 historical episodes, buying CVLG when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +27.0% after 12 months (median +17.0%), compared to +13.4% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 67% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +52.7% vs +25.8% for the index.

Each line shows $100 invested at the moment CVLG crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.

Bean Score Experimental

The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. CVLG currently has negative free cash flow, so price-based dislocation levels are not available. The score still tracks yield deviation from baseline.

Current Bean Score -0.62σ
Current FCF Yield -0.87%
Baseline Yield -1.34%
Historical σ 0.59pp

Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end

Data depth: 2 quarterly baselines, 22 price observations — Limited history (4+ quarters preferred for reliability)

Signal Accuracy Collecting Data

The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"

11 / 13 weeks minimum

Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.

Dislocation Scores Experimental

Each score measures deviation from CVLG's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.

2 stacked signals: buyback, value_vs_history
Yield Dislocation -0.93σ Dividend yield vs own 10-yr norm
Drawdown Score -1.42σ Distance from line vs own history
Sector-Relative -2.14σ Vs sector median this week
Buyback Acceleration -2.7pp YoY share change vs own 3-yr pace (− = accelerating)
Insider Intensity N/A TTM buys / market cap, percentile of buyers
FCF Yield vs History +3.2pp Vs own recent annual mean
Earnings Quality Insufficient data Accrual gap trend

Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.

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Historical Touches

CVLG has crossed below its 200-week MA 28 times with an average 1-year return of +19.3% after recovery.

Crossed BelowRecoveredWeeksMax Depth1-Year ReturnReturn Since Touch
Oct 1995Mar 19962225.9%+24.4%+500.2%
May 1996Jun 199610.1%-1.6%+480.6%
Nov 1996Jun 19972924.8%+3.2%+476.0%
Dec 1997Feb 199878.8%+11.4%+462.4%
Jun 1998Jun 199812.9%-10.7%+466.8%
Aug 1998Nov 19981437.1%+24.3%+521.0%
Mar 1999Jun 19991525.0%+0.4%+510.4%
Sep 1999Jan 20017049.4%-37.9%+458.0%
Feb 2001Apr 2001915.1%+21.8%+555.2%
Jun 2001Aug 20011123.8%+19.2%+586.7%
Sep 2001Dec 20011334.8%+28.5%+517.8%
May 2004May 200440.6%-10.8%+470.4%
Oct 2004Oct 200410.2%-39.9%+436.8%
Mar 2005Apr 201026386.2%-7.5%+451.4%
Aug 2011Jul 20125251.3%+4.4%+1674.8%
Aug 2012Dec 20121815.4%+9.0%+1718.2%
Apr 2013Jun 2013714.8%+78.3%+1526.1%
Aug 2013Sep 201358.3%+122.0%+1460.7%
Oct 2016Oct 201637.5%+84.7%+486.2%
Mar 2017Apr 201745.1%+67.2%+399.0%
May 2017Aug 20171412.2%+53.7%+391.6%
Nov 2018Feb 20191422.1%-36.7%+273.5%
Feb 2019Mar 202110969.0%-47.3%+288.5%
Apr 2021Apr 202114.0%-1.1%+356.4%
Jun 2021Aug 202186.6%+9.6%+343.0%
Apr 2022Apr 202237.0%+84.7%+378.6%
Apr 2025Apr 202512.2%+67.4%+134.4%
Oct 2025Dec 202566.3%N/A+114.4%
Average25+19.3%

Frequently Asked Questions

Is CVLG below its 200-week moving average?

No. Covenant Logistics Group, Inc. (CVLG) is currently 85.9% above its 200-week moving average of $22.94. It would need to fall to $22.94 to cross below the line.

What is CVLG's 200-week moving average price?

Covenant Logistics Group, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $22.94 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.

What happens when CVLG drops below its 200-week moving average?

CVLG has crossed below its 200-week moving average 28 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +19.3%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 25 weeks on average.

Is CVLG a good value right now?

Here's what our data says about CVLG as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 86 (overbought). Free cash flow is currently negative. Return on equity is 0.5%. Price-to-book is 2.6x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.

How does CVLG compare to the S&P 500?

Over the past 30.8 years, $100 invested in CVLG would have grown to $687, compared to $2181 for the S&P 500. That's 6.5% annualized vs 10.5% for the index. CVLG has underperformed the broader market over this period.

Does CVLG pay a dividend?

Yes. Covenant Logistics Group, Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 63.00%.

Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Data as of week of 2026-06-19