CVLG
Covenant Logistics Group, Inc. Industrials - Trucking Investor Relations →
Covenant Logistics Group, Inc. (CVLG) closed at $33.80 as of 2026-09-18, trading 38.4% above its 200-week moving average of $24.43. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 46.3% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 28, CVLG is in oversold territory.
Trading volume is running at 1.6x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.87 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1616 weeks of data, CVLG has crossed below its 200-week moving average 28 times. On average, these episodes lasted 25 weeks. Historically, investors who bought CVLG at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +19.3%.
With a market cap of $858 million, CVLG is a small-cap stock. Free cash flow yield is currently negative, meaning the company is burning cash. Return on equity stands at 0.2%. The stock trades at 2.1x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 7.5% over the past three years.
Over the past 31 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in CVLG would have grown to $546, compared to $2230 for the S&P 500. CVLG has returned 5.6% annualized vs 10.5% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -100% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: CVLG vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After CVLG Crosses Below the Line?
Across 28 historical episodes, buying CVLG when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +27.0% after 12 months (median +17.0%), compared to +13.4% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 67% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +52.7% vs +25.8% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment CVLG crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. CVLG currently has negative free cash flow, so price-based dislocation levels are not available. The score still tracks yield deviation from baseline.
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 | $0.43 | $0.42 | -1.2% |
| 2026-04-23 | $0.24 | $0.26 | +7.8% |
| 2026-01-29 | $0.33 | $0.31 | -7.0% |
| 2025-10-22 | $0.44 | $0.44 | +1.0% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from CVLG's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
CVLG has crossed below its 200-week MA 28 times with an average 1-year return of +19.3% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1995 | Mar 1996 | 22 | 25.9% | +24.4% | +376.8% |
| May 1996 | Jun 1996 | 1 | 0.1% | -1.6% | +361.3% |
| Nov 1996 | Jun 1997 | 29 | 24.8% | +3.2% | +357.6% |
| Dec 1997 | Feb 1998 | 7 | 8.8% | +11.4% | +346.8% |
| Jun 1998 | Jun 1998 | 1 | 2.9% | -10.7% | +350.3% |
| Aug 1998 | Nov 1998 | 14 | 37.1% | +24.3% | +393.4% |
| Mar 1999 | Jun 1999 | 15 | 25.0% | +0.4% | +385.0% |
| Sep 1999 | Jan 2001 | 70 | 49.4% | -37.9% | +343.3% |
| Feb 2001 | Apr 2001 | 9 | 15.1% | +21.8% | +420.6% |
| Jun 2001 | Aug 2001 | 11 | 23.8% | +19.2% | +445.6% |
| Sep 2001 | Dec 2001 | 13 | 34.8% | +28.5% | +390.8% |
| May 2004 | May 2004 | 4 | 0.6% | -10.8% | +353.2% |
| Oct 2004 | Oct 2004 | 1 | 0.2% | -39.9% | +326.5% |
| Mar 2005 | Apr 2010 | 263 | 86.2% | -7.5% | +338.1% |
| Aug 2011 | Jul 2012 | 52 | 51.3% | +4.4% | +1310.1% |
| Aug 2012 | Dec 2012 | 18 | 15.4% | +9.0% | +1344.5% |
| Apr 2013 | Jun 2013 | 7 | 14.8% | +78.3% | +1191.9% |
| Aug 2013 | Sep 2013 | 5 | 8.3% | +122.0% | +1140.0% |
| Oct 2016 | Oct 2016 | 3 | 7.5% | +84.7% | +365.7% |
| Mar 2017 | Apr 2017 | 4 | 5.1% | +67.2% | +296.5% |
| May 2017 | Aug 2017 | 14 | 12.2% | +53.7% | +290.6% |
| Nov 2018 | Feb 2019 | 14 | 22.1% | -36.7% | +196.8% |
| Feb 2019 | Mar 2021 | 109 | 69.0% | -47.3% | +208.6% |
| Apr 2021 | Apr 2021 | 1 | 4.0% | -1.1% | +262.6% |
| Jun 2021 | Aug 2021 | 8 | 6.6% | +9.6% | +252.0% |
| Apr 2022 | Apr 2022 | 3 | 7.0% | +84.7% | +280.3% |
| Apr 2025 | Apr 2025 | 1 | 2.3% | +67.4% | +86.2% |
| Oct 2025 | Dec 2025 | 6 | 6.3% | N/A | +70.3% |
| Average | 25 | — | +19.3% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CVLG below its 200-week moving average?
No. Covenant Logistics Group, Inc. (CVLG) is currently 38.4% above its 200-week moving average of $24.43. It would need to fall to $24.43 to cross below the line.
What is CVLG's 200-week moving average price?
Covenant Logistics Group, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $24.43 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when CVLG drops below its 200-week moving average?
CVLG has crossed below its 200-week moving average 28 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +19.3%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 25 weeks on average.
Is CVLG a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about CVLG as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 28 (oversold). Free cash flow is currently negative. Return on equity is 0.2%. Price-to-book is 2.1x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does CVLG compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 31 years, $100 invested in CVLG would have grown to $546, compared to $2230 for the S&P 500. That's 5.6% annualized vs 10.5% for the index. CVLG has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does CVLG pay a dividend?
Yes. Covenant Logistics Group, Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 82.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18