CVGI
Commercial Vehicle Group, Inc. Consumer Cyclical - Auto Parts Investor Relations →
Commercial Vehicle Group, Inc. (CVGI) closed at $4.84 as of 2026-06-19, trading 1.9% above its 200-week moving average of $4.75. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 13.3% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 72, CVGI is in overbought territory.
Trading volume is running at 0.9x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.49 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1092 weeks of data, CVGI has crossed below its 200-week moving average 27 times. On average, these episodes lasted 25 weeks. The average one-year return after crossing below was -1.7%, suggesting these dips have not historically been reliable buying opportunities for this stock.
With a market cap of $164 million, CVGI is a small-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 18.4%, which is notably high. Return on equity stands at -12.3%. The stock trades at 1.2x book value.
Share count has increased 4.1% over three years, indicating dilution. This stock also meets the Yartseva multibagger criteria as a small-cap with strong free cash flow yield and reasonable book value.
Over the past 21 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in CVGI would have grown to $20, compared to $887 for the S&P 500. CVGI has returned -7.3% annualized vs 11.0% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -11.6% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: CVGI vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After CVGI Crosses Below the Line?
Across 26 historical episodes, buying CVGI when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of -0.6% after 12 months (median +1.0%), compared to +17.8% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 50% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was -16.5% vs +31.3% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment CVGI crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices CVGI would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where CVGI's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-08-03.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $1.78 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $3.05 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $10.66 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | N/A | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | N/A | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from CVGI's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
CVGI has crossed below its 200-week MA 27 times with an average 1-year return of +-1.7% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2005 | Oct 2005 | 2 | 1.8% | +3.1% | -74.7% |
| Oct 2005 | Nov 2005 | 1 | 1.9% | +6.8% | -74.3% |
| Dec 2005 | Jan 2006 | 5 | 4.6% | +17.9% | -73.6% |
| Jan 2006 | Mar 2006 | 7 | 5.8% | +8.0% | -74.2% |
| Apr 2006 | Apr 2006 | 3 | 4.3% | +9.3% | -73.6% |
| Jun 2006 | Sep 2006 | 14 | 9.3% | +1.3% | -74.6% |
| Feb 2007 | Mar 2007 | 2 | 1.2% | -51.3% | -74.8% |
| Apr 2007 | May 2010 | 157 | 96.9% | -33.4% | -74.0% |
| Jun 2010 | Jul 2010 | 3 | 4.0% | +47.5% | -50.8% |
| Aug 2010 | Aug 2010 | 3 | 5.3% | -21.5% | -50.3% |
| Aug 2011 | Oct 2011 | 10 | 33.2% | +0.2% | -39.7% |
| May 2012 | Jun 2012 | 4 | 3.0% | -5.6% | -41.9% |
| Jul 2012 | Aug 2012 | 4 | 10.8% | -6.6% | -40.8% |
| Aug 2012 | Jun 2014 | 96 | 32.1% | -14.3% | -42.0% |
| Jul 2014 | Feb 2017 | 133 | 70.3% | -40.9% | -51.7% |
| Feb 2017 | Mar 2017 | 5 | 7.8% | +73.7% | -21.6% |
| Aug 2017 | Aug 2017 | 2 | 4.8% | +53.2% | -19.7% |
| Dec 2018 | Jan 2019 | 5 | 12.0% | +12.7% | -20.4% |
| May 2019 | Jun 2019 | 2 | 5.2% | -59.3% | -22.1% |
| Aug 2019 | Sep 2019 | 3 | 8.9% | -32.3% | -21.4% |
| Nov 2019 | Nov 2019 | 1 | 0.6% | +5.8% | -30.1% |
| Dec 2019 | Nov 2020 | 49 | 81.6% | +13.3% | -29.3% |
| Apr 2022 | Jul 2022 | 13 | 24.2% | +2.1% | -32.6% |
| Aug 2022 | Jan 2023 | 20 | 43.1% | +26.9% | -29.5% |
| Mar 2023 | Apr 2023 | 4 | 6.1% | -6.8% | -26.8% |
| Oct 2023 | May 2026 | 134 | 86.3% | -54.7% | -32.8% |
| Jun 2026 | Jun 2026 | 1 | 0.3% | N/A | +1.7% |
| Average | 25 | — | +-1.7% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CVGI below its 200-week moving average?
No. Commercial Vehicle Group, Inc. (CVGI) is currently 1.9% above its 200-week moving average of $4.75. It would need to fall to $4.75 to cross below the line.
What is CVGI's 200-week moving average price?
Commercial Vehicle Group, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $4.75 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when CVGI drops below its 200-week moving average?
CVGI has crossed below its 200-week moving average 27 times in our data. The average one-year return after these crossings was -1.7%, meaning the dips were not reliable buying signals for this particular stock. These episodes lasted 25 weeks on average.
Is CVGI a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about CVGI as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 72 (overbought). Free cash flow yield is 18.4%. Return on equity is -12.3%. Price-to-book is 1.2x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does CVGI compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 21 years, $100 invested in CVGI would have grown to $20, compared to $887 for the S&P 500. That's -7.3% annualized vs 11.0% for the index. CVGI has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19